Just read through the rumor stream:
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I can actually see legitimate business reasons for a full Notre Dame jump to the ACC.
NOTRE DAME'S Perspective:
- Funding gap. It's not as big as what BYU is dealing with, but the current NBC TV deal is in the $15-20 million range per year - close to ACC numbers, if not a little under. That could be a good $10 million (or more) notch below what the SEC and Big Ten will command. Notre Dame plus a full ACC schedule and the right to contend for the ACC championship could demand closer to $30 million per year, increasing over time.
- CFP Access. Independent Notre Dame will have a hard time reaching the CFP. They would likely need an undefeated season. Whereas, a 12-1 or even 11-2 season that includes the ACC championship and the 13th conference champion game would likely get the Irish into the CFP. Full membership would also give ND better access to the Orange Bowl.
ESPN'S Perspective:
- Keep most Tier 1 ACC games, but pick-up some Notre Dame HOME games. ESPN has never broadcast a game from South Bend. ESPN already has Tier 1 ACC, SEC, Big Ten, PAC 12, and Big 12 games (although the SEC Tier 1 is shared with CBS and PAC 12 and Big 12 Tier 1 is shared with FOX). But they don't have Notre Dame unless they're on the road. ESPN would have even better inventory for ABC, ESPN, and ESPN 2 with some Notre Dame home games added to the mix. And, they have BYU and the AAC to help fill in some of the less-desirable inventory gaps - such as Thursday and Friday nights and late night west coast time slot - so, they don't need ACC Tier 2 and 3 content.
NBC's Perspective:
- Although they would give up some of Notre Dame's home games, they would probably only need to give up 3 or 4 games a year in exchange for Tier II or III rights to ACC football (on an ACC Network) and some ACC basketball. NBC exchanges the ad revenue from 3 or 4 games a year for the cable carriage fees for the entire ACC Network and season-long (football and basketball) ad revenue.
BYU's Perspective:
- Notre Dame all-in to the ACC would likely kill the future ND-BYU series. Not much hope right now, anyway, so BYU ends up with a little $$ from ND's buyout of the series.
- Most realignment scenarios in the wake of this are favorable to BYU. ND would likely come to the ACC with another Big Ten school (Penn St., Purdue, Northwestern) or Vanderbilt (SEC) or West Virginia (Big 12). Most of these moves would ultimately end with the Big 12 losing a team or two.
If the Big Ten is looking to replace someone, and the ACC is resolved to stick together with the new Notre Dame momentum, then Kansas and Missouri are the most susceptible (because they are AAU schools right on the western B1G border), with Texas and Oklahoma as less-likely alternatives.
If the SEC loses someone, they are also likely looking to Big 12 territory for a replacement - with Oklahoma and Kansas schools high on the list.
The Big 12 will likely look to replace any losses - which bodes well for BYU.
And, obviously, if the Big 12 loses West Virginia to the ACC, it would have the ability to go back to the drawing board to consider whether western or eastern expansion makes more sense. WVU to the ACC is probably the best-case-scenario for BYU's P5 hopes.
The other question is, if the ACC goes to 16 teams and the Big Ten and SEC have 14, is the (weakened) Big 12 satisfied to stay at 10? And, will the Big Ten and SEC (and PAC 12) be satisfied with the status quo numbers or look to expand to 16?