This week's polling continued the trend that was seen in previous weeks, with Mr. Trump falling farther behind. HRC is now averaging 349 Electoral votes (Summary statistics below.) The best Mr. Trump did was have HRC receive 281 (The next lowest was 299). Unless about all undecided votes break from Trump, he has no chance to be President. A good last debate might help, but I doubt it.
There are currently only three toss-up states. Arizona, Mississippi and Alaska. Alaska is following the trend of many states away from Mr. Trump. While I expect on election day Alaska will still vote Red, it is closer than it should be. Arizona is dog fight. With the concerns the state has with illegal immigration, the vote should not be close. It looks like only John McCain can save Arizona, but I doubt he would try to do it for Trump. Mississippi is a toss-up due to the lack of polling information.
Texas has shift to only Lean Republican. And many of Lean Democrat state are now solidly behind HRC. Ohio is now Leaning Democrat, when two weeks ago it was leaning Republican.
There is some good news in the polls for Mr. Trump. The first is the some recent polls have Ohio going back to him. without Ohio, there would be no way for Trump to win. While North Carolina is Lean Democrat, it appears to have stalled there. There is still hope it could swing back red.
Now what some of you have waited for, how often does Evan McMullin win Utah. The answer is never. Now this is not due to him not having a change. The methodology I'm using does not allow for trending candidates like Mr. McMullin. With the steam he is gaining, his victory is in the realm of possibility. (It also helps the almost 50% of votes for Mr. Trump and HRC are voting to prevent the other major candidate from winning.) The other issue is there was a major poll released from CBS that had Trump at 37%, much higher than other recent polls. This polling is likely very wrong, or the polling was taken well before it was published. I expect more polls from Utah to be coming out soon that will add clarity to the state of the race.
HRC Electoral Count:
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
281.0 341.0 351.0 348.7 352.0 406.0
The CBS poll in utah that has had a vastly different result than the others had a goofy methodology. It only asked between Hillary and Trump. Only if the respondent wanted to say "other" would it give them the option of selecting McMullin, Johnson or Stein. In other words, biased. It should be ignored. Dumb way to do it because it didn't match the way it will work in the voting booth. It's not like the other candidates' names are going to be hidden for the actual voter until they go through an extra step to be able to see them.Statistics: Posted by BlueK — Tue Oct 18, 2016 9:35 am
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