CougarCorner

Re: BYU-Tennessee add series

2017-03-01T22:29:02-06:00

I think the strategy has not been to get to a big bowl but rather to build the brand and get into a P5 conference. Big games against big teams and being on national TV most of the time was the goal.

We will see how it is working when we get the new ESPN contract. We should have a nice increase of revenue from it. It is still to be seen if we get into the P5 but we got awfully close a couple of times. I wish we had done this indy thing a few years earlier.

Statistics: Posted by scott715 — Wed Mar 01, 2017 10:29 pm

Re: BYU-Tennessee add series

2017-03-01T19:31:37-06:00

Fair enough.

However, have our more recent rosters been comparable to those from '06 to '10?

Beck, Hall, Pitta, Collie, Unga, Harline, George, Jorgensen, Poppinga, Nixon, Pendleton, etc.

Or, is the perspective that Beck, Hall, Pitta, Collie, and Unga would have looked more like Heaps, Nelson, Di Luigi, Brown, and Juergens with the more difficult schedules?

Have our schedules *really* been more difficult? We've lost to Utah St., Nevada, SJSU, Oregon St., and Virginia in the last 5 years.

Also, how much does coaching have to do with the last 5 years versus the previous 5 seasons?

I think the defensive talent was better from '12-'16, but the offensive talent was certainly better from '06-'09 ('10 might have been the most abysmal of all when it comes to talent and experience).

But there seems to be a "we are who we are" thing when comparing those eras.

From 2006 to 2010, we had a regular season record of 46-14. In the 10 games against P5/BCS teams we were 5-5. We won 63% of our regular season games against P5/BCS programs that finished unranked during that span.

From 2012 to 2016, we had a regular season record of 40-20. In the 24 games against BCS/P5 teams we were 11-13. We won 65% of our regular season games against P5/BCS programs that finished unranked during that span.

Not much difference in performance against the big boys.

When we play major programs that finished ranked we are in trouble. In the last 30 seasons we are 4-24 vs. major programs that finish ranked. That is tied for the 54th best record in college football against such competition. Every single team in a P5 conference has at least 1 win against a BCS/P5 team that finished ranked since the BCS was created in 1998. BYU has ZERO wins against such competition during that time (0-18).

Nobody can predict in advance which P5 teams will finish ranked, but why take the chance in loading up our schedules with 5 or 6 a year given how we recruit? I think we will enjoy our seasons more by playing Utah, Boise St., and Utah St. every year. Play 1-2 P5 teams along with a FCS team. The rest of the schedule loaded with MWC and AAC teams. We don't recruit well enough to play for National Titles and our big bowl chances are slim to none. Cracking the top 25 is all we've got left. Let's schedule in a manner that allows us to do that.

Statistics: Posted by mormonrasta — Wed Mar 01, 2017 7:31 pm

Re: BYU-Tennessee add series

2017-03-01T16:30:17-06:00

The teams of the last few years have struggled with key injuries and an anemic offense more so than horribly tough schedules. Even last year's schedule which was supposed to be the most difficult in recent memory ended up being one that the team totally was in every game--even if they dropped several of the results. Could they have a much better record playing San Jose State, UNLV, and Hawaii? Sure. But with today's rankings much more depending on strength of schedule, those wins do you no favors.

Statistics: Posted by Fido — Wed Mar 01, 2017 4:30 pm

Re: BYU-Tennessee add series

2017-03-01T15:35:38-06:00

Even though we played only 10 regular season games against P5/BCS programs from '06-'10, I enjoyed those seasons more than the last 5 seasons. I enjoyed being ranked in the AP for 42 weeks. I enjoyed 4 top 25 finishes. Watching us climb up the polls week after week was great even though we knew we probably weren't going to a big time bowl game.

In the last 5 seasons we have played 24 P5/BCS teams in the regular season. We have spent a total of 7 weeks ranked and we have zero top 25 finishes. We never had less than 8 wins. Is that an upgrade? For me it isn't.

It's not insecure to build schedules to your benefit It's smart.

Oh, and thanks Mars.

Fair enough.

However, have our more recent rosters been comparable to those from '06 to '10?

Beck, Hall, Pitta, Collie, Unga, Harline, George, Jorgensen, Poppinga, Nixon, Pendleton, etc.

Or, is the perspective that Beck, Hall, Pitta, Collie, and Unga would have looked more like Heaps, Nelson, Di Luigi, Brown, and Juergens with the more difficult schedules?

Have our schedules *really* been more difficult? We've lost to Utah St., Nevada, SJSU, Oregon St., and Virginia in the last 5 years.

Also, how much does coaching have to do with the last 5 years versus the previous 5 seasons?

Statistics: Posted by YNot — Wed Mar 01, 2017 3:35 pm

Re: BYU-Tennessee add series

2017-02-28T17:14:29-06:00

EDIT:

I just looked up how our best teams perform against "major" programs. Major is defined as Big 8/10/12, Pac 8/10/12, Big East, SWC, SEC, ACC, and major independents like Notre Dame.

When BYU has finished the season ranked in a major poll, BYU's record against "major" programs is 31-21-1 .594 win pct. We have a .643 win pct. at home and a .524 win pct. on the road. In neutral site games against such teams we have a .640 win pct.

So if Kalani, has the same home win pct. and the same road win pct as our best teams, and we win both of our neutral site games he goes 16-10 against this schedule. That's 2 losses per year over the next 5 years not factoring in Boise. Is that worth it?
I'll take 8 or 9 wins with exciting games against historic programs every chance I get. Are we really that insecure about BYU's place in college football that we would choose an easier road - and much worse schedule - to a mythical top-25 ranking - by filling the schedules in our favor against MWC lightweights and road trips to Laramie and Albuquerque?

Even though we played only 10 regular season games against P5/BCS programs from '06-'10, I enjoyed those seasons more than the last 5 seasons. I enjoyed being ranked in the AP for 42 weeks. I enjoyed 4 top 25 finishes. Watching us climb up the polls week after week was great even though we knew we probably weren't going to a big time bowl game.

In the last 5 seasons we have played 24 P5/BCS teams in the regular season. We have spent a total of 7 weeks ranked and we have zero top 25 finishes. We never had less than 8 wins. Is that an upgrade? For me it isn't.

It's not insecure to build schedules to your benefit It's smart.

Oh, and thanks Mars.

Statistics: Posted by mormonrasta — Tue Feb 28, 2017 5:14 pm

Re: BYU-Tennessee add series

2017-02-27T17:41:59-06:00

EDIT:

I just looked up how our best teams perform against "major" programs. Major is defined as Big 8/10/12, Pac 8/10/12, Big East, SWC, SEC, ACC, and major independents like Notre Dame.

When BYU has finished the season ranked in a major poll, BYU's record against "major" programs is 31-21-1 .594 win pct. We have a .643 win pct. at home and a .524 win pct. on the road. In neutral site games against such teams we have a .640 win pct.

So if Kalani, has the same home win pct. and the same road win pct as our best teams, and we win both of our neutral site games he goes 16-10 against this schedule. That's 2 losses per year over the next 5 years not factoring in Boise. Is that worth it?

Absolutely. That's 9 or 10 wins per season, with wins over the likes of LSU, Wisconsin, Arizona, Cal, and Utah. Would we rather play an MWC schedule for the *hope* that we get to play *one of* LSU or Wisconsin in a bowl game (more likely Arizona or Cal in Las Vegas, if we're lucky)?

Over the last 5 years, BYU has won 45% of P5 regular season games (11/24) and 77% of G5 regular season games (24/31) and 100% of FCS games (5/5). That 45% record against P5 saw only 33% of the games in Provo and over 58% on the road (2 neutral). The next 5 seasons have 43% of the games in Provo, 50% on the road, with 2 neutral.

Over the next 5 seasons, let's say BYU wins 50% of the P5 games and 80% of the G5 games and 100% of the FCS games (not accounting for bowl games):

2017 = 9 wins; 2-2 v. P5 (LSU, Utah, Wisconsin, Mississippi St.) and 6/7 v. G5.
- BYU gets awesome home games against Utah and Wisconsin (and Boise St.) and a cool neutral-site game in Houston against the Tigers. The Cougars finish in the rankings conversation and chance for 10 wins via the bowl game.

2018 = 8 or 9 wins; 2-3 (or 3/2) v. P5 (Arizona, Cal, Wisconsin, Washington, Utah) and 4/5 v. G5.
- BYU gets 2 more quality P5 wins and again finishes in the rankings conversation and perhaps another chance for 10 wins.

2019 - 8 or 9 wins; 2-3 (or 3/2) v. P5 (Utah, Tennessee, USC, Washington, Washington St) and 4/5 v. G5.
- BYU has an amazing home slate, with Utah, USC, and Washington coming to Provo, and a fantastic road trip to Knoxville. The Cougars again finish in the rankings conversation and perhaps another shot at double digit wins.

2020 - 8 wins; 3-3 v. P5 (Utah, Michigan St., ASU, Minnesota, Missouri, Stanford) and 4/5 v. G5.
- Great home games with Michigan St. and Missouri and a trip to Palo Alto and the (first ever?) trip to Minneapolis. Depends on how the P5 finish in the rankings, but that is probably BYU's toughest schedule to date, especially with Utah, Boise St., and Stanford on the road.

I'll take 8 or 9 wins with exciting games against historic programs every chance I get. Are we really that insecure about BYU's place in college football that we would choose an easier road - and much worse schedule - to a mythical top-25 ranking - by filling the schedules in our favor against MWC lightweights and road trips to Laramie and Albuquerque?

Statistics: Posted by YNot — Mon Feb 27, 2017 5:41 pm

Re: BYU-Tennessee add series

2017-02-25T01:17:52-06:00

Note to board: I thought to myself just yesterday that I wished Mormonrasta posted on this board more, even though I've been a real douchebag towards him in the past. As it turns out, I passionately hated the BCS, but he had a firmer grip on the realities of college football. Welcome back rasta.

Statistics: Posted by Mars — Sat Feb 25, 2017 1:17 am

Re: BYU-Tennessee add series

2017-02-24T18:58:25-06:00

I'd love to see it, but I'm still jaded by the Notre Dame deal. 2023 seems like a long way away for Tennessee to somehow not make it out to Provo.
I'd love to see BYU schedule a series without someone making a comment about how the team is not going to play their return game.
I get a chuckle out of those intrinsically grumpy posters.

These grumps who are afraid other teams might buy out return games are usually the same armchair execs that nitpick the schedules ("If I were AD, I would schedule Alabama on Thanksgiving weekend in Provo, I don't know what Holmoe is thinking") without stopping to realize that BYU's constant attempts to join a P5 conference mean that any prospective opponent has to be legitimately concerned that BYU will join a conference and then have to buyout the last 8-9 games of any season thereafter.

In other words, Tennessee (and any othe future opponent) is much more worried, with good reason, about BYU's eventual performance, because BYU is pretty openly and actively looking for a better option in conference affiliation at all times.

I don't think I've ever pretended to know more than Holmoe or speculate "if I were AD..." I don't know if I'm a grumpy poster either. But I do like how many new programs that BYU has never before that are on the future schedules.

Statistics: Posted by SpiffCoug — Fri Feb 24, 2017 6:58 pm

Re: BYU-Tennessee add series

2017-02-24T17:26:51-06:00

I just looked up how our best teams perform against "major" programs. Major is defined as Big 8/10/12, Pac 8/10/12, Big East, SWC, SEC, ACC, and major independents like Notre Dame.

When BYU has finished the season ranked in a major poll, BYU's record against "major" programs is 31-21-1 .594 win pct. We have a .643 win pct. at home and a .524 win pct. on the road. In neutral site games against such teams we have a .640 win pct.

So if Kalani, has the same home win pct. and the same road win pct as our best teams, and we win both of our neutral site games he goes 16-10 against this schedule. That's 2 losses per year over the next 5 years not factoring in Boise. Is that worth it?

Welp, that's it. You've convinced me that joining a P5 conference is a fools errand.

Statistics: Posted by snoscythe — Fri Feb 24, 2017 5:26 pm

Re: BYU-Tennessee add series

2017-02-24T16:01:29-06:00

I'd be more excited if our recruiting was better. I appreciate being able to play programs that significantly out recruit us like USC, Washington and Tennessee, but not in the same year. I'm probably in the minority, but I would rather beat Wyoming rather than lose to Tennessee.

Utah and Boise State give us all that we can handle. Playing 1 or 2 P5 teams in addition to them is plenty. I'd rather get back to 10+ win seasons with an easier schedule than going at best 9-4 with the schedules we have coming up.

EDIT:

I just looked up how our best teams perform against "major" programs. Major is defined as Big 8/10/12, Pac 8/10/12, Big East, SWC, SEC, ACC, and major independents like Notre Dame.

When BYU has finished the season ranked in a major poll, BYU's record against "major" programs is 31-21-1 .594 win pct. We have a .643 win pct. at home and a .524 win pct. on the road. In neutral site games against such teams we have a .640 win pct.

So if Kalani, has the same home win pct. and the same road win pct as our best teams, and we win both of our neutral site games he goes 16-10 against this schedule. That's 2 losses per year over the next 5 years not factoring in Boise. Is that worth it?

Statistics: Posted by mormonrasta — Fri Feb 24, 2017 4:01 pm