Should we or shouldn't we?

[Fido]

When Bronco/Holmoe say independence is not sustainable, they are talking compared to P5 money. So you go P5 over indy every day of the week. But at least under current conditions, indy is better than the MWC every day of the week. So that won't change unless circumstances drastically change. If it became desirable to be in a league instead of staying indy and no P5 conference option was available, I think a "best of the rest" league is most desirable because you avoid the current abusive environment that is the MWC. And the best of the AAC in an eastern division and the best of the MWC in a western division wouldn't be horrible.

[Cougarfan87]

When Bronco/Holmoe say independence is not sustainable, they are talking compared to P5 money. So you go P5 over indy every day of the week. But at least under current conditions, indy is better than the MWC every day of the week. So that won't change unless circumstances drastically change. If it became desirable to be in a league instead of staying indy and no P5 conference option was available, I think a "best of the rest" league is most desirable because you avoid the current abusive environment that is the MWC. And the best of the AAC in an eastern division and the best of the MWC in a western division wouldn't be horrible.

In sum, P5>Sustainable Independence>Best of the Rest>MWC. However, P5>Best of the Rest>Unsustainable Independence>MWC.

As anyone can plainly see, there is no circumstance that warrants a return to the MWC. It is P5, sustainable indepedence, new conference where BYU can set up its TV rights, or bust.

The real question for me is what makes independence sustainable or not? I don't think BYU is losing a ton of kids that would have gone there but for being independent. The recruiting hasn't really changed. If the talent level is roughly the same, and BYU is operating in the black, what makes independence unsustainable? Are P5 teams going to stop scheduling BYU? We have seen an increase there, not a decrease. Are they talking about the P5 eventually breaking away from the NCAA? What makes the current model unsustainable?

[Stirfry]

When Bronco/Holmoe say independence is not sustainable, they are talking compared to P5 money. So you go P5 over indy every day of the week. But at least under current conditions, indy is better than the MWC every day of the week. So that won't change unless circumstances drastically change. If it became desirable to be in a league instead of staying indy and no P5 conference option was available, I think a "best of the rest" league is most desirable because you avoid the current abusive environment that is the MWC. And the best of the AAC in an eastern division and the best of the MWC in a western division wouldn't be horrible.

In sum, P5>Sustainable Independence>Best of the Rest>MWC. However, P5>Best of the Rest>Unsustainable Independence>MWC.

As anyone can plainly see, there is no circumstance that warrants a return to the MWC. It is P5, sustainable indepedence, new conference where BYU can set up its TV rights, or bust.

The real question for me is what makes independence sustainable or not? I don't think BYU is losing a ton of kids that would have gone there but for being independent. The recruiting hasn't really changed. If the talent level is roughly the same, and BYU is operating in the black, what makes independence unsustainable? Are P5 teams going to stop scheduling BYU? We have seen an increase there, not a decrease. Are they talking about the P5 eventually breaking away from the NCAA? What makes the current model unsustainable?

I haven't read a lot about why it is unsustainable but my impression is independence while acting (i.e. spending) like a P5 is probably unsustainable. Independence while acting like a G5 i'd guess would be very sustainable as long as fans don't lose interest.

[BYULV]

When Bronco/Holmoe say independence is not sustainable, they are talking compared to P5 money. So you go P5 over indy every day of the week. But at least under current conditions, indy is better than the MWC every day of the week. So that won't change unless circumstances drastically change. If it became desirable to be in a league instead of staying indy and no P5 conference option was available, I think a "best of the rest" league is most desirable because you avoid the current abusive environment that is the MWC. And the best of the AAC in an eastern division and the best of the MWC in a western division wouldn't be horrible.

In sum, P5>Sustainable Independence>Best of the Rest>MWC. However, P5>Best of the Rest>Unsustainable Independence>MWC.

As anyone can plainly see, there is no circumstance that warrants a return to the MWC. It is P5, sustainable indepedence, new conference where BYU can set up its TV rights, or bust.

The real question for me is what makes independence sustainable or not? I don't think BYU is losing a ton of kids that would have gone there but for being independent. The recruiting hasn't really changed. If the talent level is roughly the same, and BYU is operating in the black, what makes independence unsustainable? Are P5 teams going to stop scheduling BYU? We have seen an increase there, not a decrease. Are they talking about the P5 eventually breaking away from the NCAA? What makes the current model unsustainable?

I haven't read a lot about why it is unsustainable but my impression is independence while acting (i.e. spending) like a P5 is probably unsustainable. Independence while acting like a G5 i'd guess would be very sustainable as long as fans don't lose interest.

My guess is it's unsustainable because we can't get great home schedules year in and year out. We have great games and good overall schedules, but our Indy money is tied to our ESPN Contract which derives it's value from our home games. If we have 4-5 bad match ups every year we are doomed.

[stuckinbig10country]

Except ESPN is very happy with what BYU provides them as far as covering open windows in their schedule, so they don't necessarily care who the opponent is.

Also, BYU fans don't seem to care which teams BYU plays at home. In 2012, attendance was higher for a season which included Washington St, Weber St, Hawaii, USU, Oregon St, and Idaho when compared to 2013 with Texas, Utah, Midd TN, Ga Tech, Boise, and Idaho St. Clearly 2013 had "better" teams on the home schedule.

[redneckjedi]

Except ESPN is very happy with what BYU provides them as far as covering open windows in their schedule, so they don't necessarily care who the opponent is.

Also, BYU fans don't seem to care which teams BYU plays at home. In 2012, attendance was higher for a season which included Washington St, Weber St, Hawaii, USU, Oregon St, and Idaho when compared to 2013 with Texas, Utah, Midd TN, Ga Tech, Boise, and Idaho St. Clearly 2013 had "better" teams on the home schedule.

I don't have any data to back me up, but my gut tells me our attendance correlates better with weather, time of day, and record/ranking than quality of opponent.

[stuckinbig10country]

Another interesting point: In his state of the program with the local media, Dr. Chris Hill said that the TV money received by Utah for this past year was $17 million, all sports. I believe this is the first year where Utah got a full share. The Big 10, SEC,and even the Big 12 are distributing over 20 million per team.

BYU's minimum take from ESPN is 5 million per year. Add another $2 million (conservative estimate) for all the sponsorships for the 1 BYUtv game per year plus all of the replays (replays are a freaking cash cow for BYU), and $1 million from the WCC TV contract. That's a minimum of $8 million a year from just TV. (Remember, BSU played in a NY6 bowl last year and didn't even get our base amount with ESPN for football over all their sports.) Also, this is just for the home games. BYU gets TV money (LSU, WVU games) or an appearance fee (Missouri) for every neutral site game, so the TV money could go up depending on the agreement.

I know the $9 million a year between BYU and the Pac 12 schools is a lot...but it's not as bad as we previously thought it might be (and is likely closer, since ESPN has picked up more games than minimum contracted each year of the contract).

What I worry about is how much of the overhead BYU has had to pick up not being in a conference. Officials, travel costs (some of which was subsidized by the conference), production costs, etc. I wonder if it's these things that make Independence unsustainable.

Also, I think Bronco's 3 years remark was aimed at BYU's TV partner more than anything.