2012

[byutx]

Every year since I can remember I have bought into the hype. Every year at least since I returned from my mission. Last year I believed Bronco when he said we were the most prepared team he had had in fall camp up to that point. I supported his decision to end fall camp last year a couple practices early and begin on prep for Ole Miss a bit early. I believed we could get away with it. I believed we were poised for some unprecedented things-which ended up being true, but nowhere near how I had hoped. This year I’ve chosen not to. In fact, last December I pretty much wrote off the 2012 season.

Last year we had the talent and the schedule (with a lot of big name teams for whom we would get a lot of credit for beating, despite the fact that none but TCU was particularly noteworthy) necessary to make a run. And then we laid a turd. It was a teamwide failure, including the coaches. Jake Heaps sucked against the good and bad teams we faced. Kids couldn’t catch the few passes that JH actually got to them. When Riley Nelson finally became the guy, he outshined JH about 10 to 1 against the bad teams. He struggled against the only 2 respectable teams he faced-TCU finished 32nd in total D and Tulsa finished 99th. He was extremely lucky to have split those games.

I was at both of those games when I realized that it could not get better under Riley Nelson. 17/40 with a lot of huge mental mistakes and poor execution in a game he had a month to prep for against a defense that just wasn't that good is as big an indictment of RN's abilities as anything. Some blamed the OL, some blamed the fact we had little production from the RBs.

It was at the bowl game that I realized we could already write off 2012 as an 8-4 season with our "prize" being a bowl game against an AFA, Nevada or Fresno State if we're lucky and a Wyoming, New Mexico (lol) or Colorado State if we're not. To me, there was almost no point to playing the games. We had (and still likely have) little chance of losing to WSU, OSU, Hawaii, USU, ISU, the other WSU, San Jose or NM State. In my mind we had little hope of beating ND #34 D, Utah #30 D (and who for whatever reason owns us in the rivalry even when we are close in talent and should even be the favorite), BSU #17 and GT #46, whose defensive speed and athleticism is significantly better than Tulsa's. Tulsa would provide about 55 minutes of “how to make RN look like a JV QB” video. 8 regular season wins was our ceiling.

Over the last few months I still haven’t bought into any hype-although it seems as though there is less hype this year. However, I’ve softened a bit and I began to entertain the idea we would win 9 regular season games and our bowl game vs. a MWC loser. I figured that we'd end up splitting the GT and BSU games. I was still fairly certain that ND would be too much for our offense to handle. I still fear what Manti Te’o will do against us. If I were him I’d be playing with a chip on my shoulder and with a personal vendetta to make Bronco regret pulling his schollie offer.

That brings me to Utah. I just don’t know what to make of this game. 6 years of data suggest that Bronco’s teams are underprepared emotionally for the game. In years where Utah is the clear favorite (2008), they win and win big. In years where the teams are evenly matched (2010, 2011) we lose and when we are clearly the better team (2006, 2007, 2009) we need a miracle to win or we lose (2005). I’m not sure why this happens. I think that Kryle is better at preparing his guys for the game and a few other things. It seems like they ALWAYS play up and that we ALWAYS play down. I’m at the point where I almost have to assume a loss if the teams are about even or if Utah is superior. If we’re superior in a particular year, then I’d gear up for another all-time great finish that hopefully ends in our favor. My heart told me this is the year we finally get over the hump and lay down a beat down that the yewts sorely deserve-just like it did in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010 and 2011. My head told me it’s all but certainly a loss. The yewts certainly have issues and really weren’t particularly wonderful last year and it stands to reason that they’ll be at about the same spot in 2012 they were last year. At this point I think it may be too close to call. And under Bronco’s tenure, that doesn’t necessarily bode well for us.

The reality is that there are some major similarities with 2011 and 2012. We’ve got a solid but manageable schedule with a few big name teams-wins for which we will likely get more credit than deserved. But I’ll take it. We’ve got a QB that has been involved in a lot of controversy but that is emerging after a full off-season of being the man. If we win out, we’ll be in the national title game discussion. However, even if I force myself into the most blue-goggliest prognosticator mood, I just don’t see it. However, I now concede that we have a better chance than I gave us in my most pessimistic predictions of the past few months. I will stop short of predicting our record. Even though I have soured quite a bit on Bronco (a topic for another time to be sure), I’m going to follow his mantra and take it one game at a time. I think we’ll beat Washington State in 19 days-and plan on laying out a more detailed prediction for that game when it gets closer.

As I said before, I haven’t bought into any hype this year. I only bought 2 preseason magazines this year (down from the usual 3-4) and I’ve only read a handful of fall camp updates. I haven’t even signed up for TBS chat. I have fought the excitement and fought it well. This offseason I’ve been able to spend a lot of time concentrating on work and helping my clients-time that in previous years I would’ve spent on TBS, CC and rumorboard gobbling up tidbits about how the 5th string free safeties and backup long snapper are progressing.

However, this post may signal the beginning of the end of that fight for me.

[snoscythe]

On the second day, a sail drew near, nearer, and picked me up at last. It was the devious-cruising Rachel, that in her retracing search after her missing children, only found another orphan.

[byutx]

On the second day, a sail drew near, nearer, and picked me up at last. It was the devious-cruising Rachel, that in her retracing search after her missing children, only found another orphan.

Nice. My wife and I just finished watching Lost.

[KingCoug]

Good original post. Mirrored many of my own sentiments. Though I'm not aware of much hype regarding this year. Maybe guarded optimism. As always, it comes down to not just beating the teams you're supposed to.

[Cougarbib]

BYU TX - it sounded a little contrived by the time you got to the end - because as you indicated at the end - you are letting your hype guard down.

Maybe not as Blue Goggled as ever, but it is coming back.

But anyway - what I was actually wondering what, given that you indicated that an 8-4 result would be a written off season, did you go ahead and write off that 6-6 2013 season as well.

You fans that can't stomach four losses better hope the schedule maker drops the anyone, anywhere approach to scheduling.

ND has better athletes than BYU - but a worse record. This year, they are likely to beat BYU but end up ranked behind BYU and have a worse record. Scheduling - plain and simple.

Write them off too. In fact - post ND W/L record for the past decade or two, year by year, and see, with all their plunder and riches. that 8-4 would be a typical year - wonder if they wrote all of those off.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

[hawkwing]

I look forward to seeing what Riley Nelson can do this year as a qb. He has potential to have a great year this year.

[stuckinbig10country]

Well, since the predictions have started, I'll throw mine out there. I think best case scenario for this team is 8-4. Worst case scenario is 4-8. I will break things down into the groups of sure wins, probable wins, toss up, definite losses. Then give my prediction for the season.

Sure wins:
Weber State-FCS team, new coach, some strange stuff happened to them in the off-season with their coaching staff.
Idaho-should be an FCS team, possibly the worst team on the schedule.
San Jose State-they have a descent coach and will be ramped for the game, but they still don't match talent wise (although, I think BYU's talent is closer to San Jose State than BSU, UofU, ND, or GA Tech than any of us think).
New Mexico State-again, just more talented.

Probable wins:
Hawaii-At home, should win because still more talented, but Chow took apart BYU last year.
Oregon State-they should be better than last year, but they still aren't good enough to beat BYU at BYU.

Toss Up:
Washington State-too many unknowns. They have one of the best coaches in college football, a dynamic offense, a senior QB (which apparently means so much), and I have thoughts of that Tulsa game during the Max Hall era, where BYU scored a ton, but couldn't stop anything on defense.
Utah State-they have a great coach and they really should be going for their 3rd straight win against us. If they've learned how to close, they could take this one too.

Losses:
Utah-they are more talented, better coached, and it's on the road. Their defense is better than the TCU and Tulsa defenses from last year that made Riley look ridiculous. This one could get really, really ugly.
Boise State-short week, back to back road games, insanely talented, best coach in the country. Also could be very, very ugly.
Notre Dame-more talented, good coach (for the first time in a long time), good defense, on the road.
Georgia Tech-good coach, second of back to back cross country trips, good coach, funky style of play, good athletes. If one of these 4 losses is winnable, it's this one.

After all of this, I see the final regular season record being 7-5. BYU wins both probably win games and splits the toss up games. I really see Washington State coming in game 1 and winning. They are the worst possible team to have to open this season. I think that the USU game will be close, but Riley makes a couple plays late to put the game away. BYU starts 1-3, wins the next 3, and is never worse then .500 the rest of the season.

[KingCoug]

I'm all for being realistic and not putting on the Blue Goggles but I think you're going too far the other way. It's Leach's first game as coach of WSU and he's playing away. If anything, the "unknowns" are to our benefit. And Utah State a toss up? Maybe if we were playing in Logan. But not in Provo.

I'd say the odds are we win the 8 games we're supposed to and grab 1 of the 4 big away games. Giving us 9 wins. Possibly 10 if we win out bowl.

But, to me, that would be a disappointment because it would be more of the same. Good but no great.

[FurriousCougar]

On the second day, a sail drew near, nearer, and picked me up at last. It was the devious-cruising Rachel, that in her retracing search after her missing children, only found another orphan.

Nice. My wife and I just finished watching Lost.

I think I could probably have re-watched the entire Lost series in the same time that I took reading this post...I kid. I kid. But seriously. Good series though.

[Mars]

IF BYU wins their first two road games at Utah and at Boise State, we start the season 7-0, and end the season no worse than 11-2. That's a pretty decent "absolute" for ya, even if realistically anything is possible.

I just don't see us winning at Notre Dame though. Not only don't, but can't. Not yet.