Deep Shades of Blue NAILS it

[KingCoug]

Has BYU Hit Its Ceiling?
Brett Richins
September 17, 2012

There’s an elephant in the room.

BYU fans can see it. The media that covers BYU football can see it too, but they’re not saying anything.

Hard questions must be asked after yet another BYU meltdown on national television against its arch-rival Utah.

Has the current leadership taken this BYU program as far as it can? Have the Cougars reached a ceiling with this coaching staff?

As the clock ticked down in the fourth quarter late Saturday night, the Utes tried everything they could to hand the game to the Cougars.

But in the end, BYU was just too inept to take advantage. A botched punt, a blown coverage in the secondary on 4th-and-12 and an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on the Utah crowd couldn’t even bail out a second straight deer-in-the-headlights performance by the BYU offense and breakdowns on special teams.

For the second year in a row, the Cougars offense appeared totally unprepared to play in this rivalry game. In fact, the start of the game of was astonishingly similar to last year’s 54-10 debacle in Provo, with BYU quarterback Riley Nelson losing the ball in the end zone on the Cougar’s first offensive snap. Only a facemask penalty prevented the Utes from scoring a safety on the play.

It was one of several bullets that BYU dodged in the first half, but couldn’t elude in the second. In the end, BYU doinked a 36-yard field goal off the upright that could have sent the game into overtime, a fitting end to a night of mistakes, miscues, and a horrendous display of ball security.

Meanwhile the Utes were playing with a Division II quarterback and were without star running back John White, the guy who was virtually the entire offense for Utah in 2011. They were also without their second best defender in strong safety Brian Blechen and missing their starting free safety as well. Yet the outcome was almost predictable, with Kyle Whittingham winning his third game in a row and his fourth in the last five games over Bronco Mendenhall.

There was absolutely no excuse for BYU losing to such a depleted Utah team on Saturday.

None.

Ask yourself: How many coaches in today’s world of college football would survive going 1-4 against an arch-rival? How can any BYU coaching staff defend going a combined 1-8 against Utah and TCU since 2008 and getting blown out in many of those eight losses?

Bronco Mendenhall and his staff have been able to hide behind the smoke and mirrors of double-digit wins in recent seasons. But any honest BYU supporter has to admit that wins against quality D-1 teams have been few and far between. The Cougars did defeat a rebuilding Oklahoma team by a point in 2009, but then followed that up by getting spanked by 26 at home by a Florida State team that would finish the year 7-6.

The truth is that the Cougars haven’t defeated a program of any consequence since November 28, 2009 when Andrew George scored his touchdown in overtime, giving BYU its last win over Utah. In the two years prior to the start of this season, BYU managed just two wins over teams that finished the year with winning records. And both of those wins (against Utah State and Tulsa in 2011) were squeaked out in the final 11 seconds of the game.

Through the last seven-plus seasons, BYU has lost most of the big games on its schedule, many of those in an embarrassing fashion. Some may point to a 5-2 bowl record as proof otherwise, but are bowl victories in mid-December over fifth-place teams from the PAC-12 and also-rans from Conference USA the height to which this program can and should aspire?

Bronco talks about winning national championships, but right now his team is only the third best in the state of Utah.

Enough with the talk, platitudes, and slogans from self-help books. It’s time to start winning some meaningful games. It’s time to stop talking in circles and making rookie coaching mistakes after eight years on the job. It’s time to start developing talent–particularly on the offensive side of the ball–and stop coaching like you’re at a military academy. A program that would routinely have a couple of dozen of alumni playing in the NFL in any given year, BYU currently has a grand total of seven players on NFL rosters. That’s right: seven.

It’s also time for Mendenhall to start coaching the entire team and not just the defense. It’s time to start holding an offensive line coach and offensive coordinator accountable for performances like the one we witnessed on Saturday. It’s time to start developing quarterbacks so that you don’t have five-star quarterbacks leaving the program and four-star QBs languishing on the bench while a gutty, gritty, slot receiver plays the position.

It also time to realize that you’re not going to defeat programs of equal or better talent with a staff that is putting in only part of the time required to get the job done. It’s not acceptable to have your opponents up toiling into the night to game-plan against you, while you and your coaches are at home watching the The Voice or America’s Got Talent. Being a college coach requires 16-hour days during the season; everyone entering the profession understands that. If coaches at BYU are unwilling to put in the time necessary to have the program compete at a higher level, then perhaps they should seek employment in another field.

Can anyone honestly say that Utah put better players on the field than BYU on Saturday? Did they last year? If the answer is no, one must conclude that the Utes are getting better coaching and are better prepared.

Bronco Mendenhall and his staff deserve tremendous credit and admiration for rescuing the BYU football program after Gary Crowton ran it aground. But this program is not currently progressing and it hasn’t really progressed for a few years now. The time has come to take a good, long, honest look at where this program actually is and ask some hard questions.

There is an elephant in the room and somebody needs to say so.

http://deepshadesofblue.com/has-byu-hit-its-ceiling/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[SpiffCoug]

Here is Bronco's record against teams who won X amount of games in the year they played.
0 wins: 1-0
1 win: 3-0
2 wins: 8-0
3 wins: 8-0
4 wins: 11-1 (USU 2010)
5 wins: 6-1 (SDSU 2005)
6 wins: 8-1 (UCLA 2007)
7 wins: 5-4
8 wins: 8-2
9 wins: 6-3
10 wins: 1-5 (Utah 2009)
11 wins: 1-2 (TCU 2006)
12 wins: 1-2 (FCS UNI)
13 wins: 0-2

I need to verify my numbers, because I think I'm a win and a loss short in there. Regardless, Bronco has won a bunch of games against a bunch of good teams.

[KingCoug]

I keep track of this stuff too. Here's what I have for Bronco vs Opponent winning %.


1.000 - (0-2)
0.928 - (0-1)
0.923 - (0-1)
0.917 - (0-1)
0.846 - (1-2) - win here was against TCU in 2006 (Bronco's best quality win)
0.800 - (1-0) - win here was against D-II Northern Iowa
0.769 - (1-2) - win here was against Utah in 2009 in OT
0.750 - (1-2 - win here was against D-II Eastern Illinois
0.714 - (0-2)
0.692 - (5-1)
0.667 - (0-1)
0.615 - (8-3)
0.583 - (0-1)
0.545 - (1-0)
0.538 - (5-1)
0.500 - (2-1)
0.462 - (4-1)
0.462 - (4-1)
0.363 - (2-0)
0.333 - (8-1)
0.307 - (1-0)
0.250 - (8-0)
0.181 - (3-0)
0.167 - (3-0)
0.153 - (1-0)
0.083 - (3-0)
0.000 - (1-0)


Teams 0.700 or better seems to be the cutoff mark.

Bronco vs. Teams .700 or higher: 4-13 (2 wins against D-II teams)
Bronco vs. Teams below .700: 59-11

[KingCoug]

Or to put it another way, Bronco's best wins:


Won 31-17 over TCU (11-2) in 2006

Won 26-23 OT over Utah (10-3) in 2009

Won 31-6 over Air Force (9-4) in 2007

Won 42-17 over New Mexico (9-4) in 2007

Won 17-10 over Utah (9-4) in 2007

Won 24-21 over San Diego State (9-4) in 2007

[Gunk]

Not very impressive.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

[KingCoug]

Not counting this year, Bronco is 12-19 against ranked/BCS opponents. But only half of those wins have come against an opponent with a winning record.


Won 31-17 over TCU in 2006 (TCU went 11-2 was Top 25 that year)

Won 38-8 over Oregon in LV Bowl in 2006 (Oregon went 7-6 that year)

Won 20-17 over Arizona in 2007 (Arizona went 5-7 that year)

Won 17-16 over UCLA in 2007 (UCLA went 6-7 that year)

Won 28-27 over Washington in 2008 (Washington went 0-12 that year)

Won 59-0 over UCLA in 2008 (UCLA went 4-8 that year)

Won 14-13 over Oklahoma in 2009 (Oklahoma went 8-5 that year)

Won 26-23 over Utah in 2009 (Utah went 10-3 that year and Top 25)

Won 44-20 over Oregon State in LV Bowl in 2009 (Oregon State went 8-5 that year and Top 25)

Won 23-17 over Washington in 2010 (Washington went 7-6 that year)

Won 14-13 over Ole Miss in 2011 (Ole Miss went 2-10 that year)

Won 38-28 over Oregon State in 2011 (Oregon State went 3-9 that year)

[mizzoucoug]

Yes we have hit the ceiling and it happened 3 years ago. I'd like to think a better QB will get us there, but you can't count on that happening. We get to witness Boise on Thursday and a fine example of how you quickly reload.

[hawkwing]

I will not be satisfied until BYU beats a team that ends the year unbeaten.

[CDH]

here is a different opinion........ One I tend to agree with...
http://www.vanquishthefoe.com/2012/9/17 ... g-altitude" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[KingCoug]

here is a different opinion........ One I tend to agree with...
http://www.vanquishthefoe.com/2012/9/17 ... g-altitude" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The problem with that article is much of it is based on what still could be. And what could be is nothing but future speculation.