Ending the Riley Nelson is a "good QB" debate

[Stirfry]

Here is the data: Riley has started against 8 defenses ranked in the top 100 (Washington, Air Force, FSU, Oregon St., TCU, Tulsa, Utah, and BSU)

If you just take his PERs and average them you get a PER of 88.75

If you painstakingly extrapolate all of the data game from game, and add up all the numbers, you get a PER of 108.72.

The win loss record? 5 losses and 3 wins.

Riley's an average QB when healthy. Of the 8 games listed he shouldn't have played in at least 3 of them due to serious injury. Air Force in 2010 and Utah and BSU in 2012. Without those games he's 3-2 with a winning record against your teams. (My memory is that injury that eventually ended his 2010 seasonw as early in the Air Force game. I might be wrong.)

Bronco saying he's a fan of Riley Nelson and that he loves him doesn't help the fans trust that Riley is the best option. Riley saying that he would never pull himself from a game doesnt help him either. It just makes him appear selfish and Bronco appear blinded by love.

If the fans could trust that Riley was the best option I think everyone would be a lot happier and just accept that it is what it is. Right now we can't trust the coaches or the QB to do what is best for the team. Until then many will be wanting Lark to play.

Top 100 defenses doesn't seem like a very high standard though.

[stgeorgefan]

Using the top 100 is kinda funny. Only leaving out 17 a few years ago and around 20 teams this year... How about top 60 defense, then your in the top 50%.

[stgeorgefan]

Using the top 100 is kinda funny. Only leaving out 17 a few years ago and around 20 teams this year... How about top 60 defense, then your in the top 50%.

[stgeorgefan]

Actually the more I think about it, a top 50 defense I would consider good. Anyone around 60 would be very average. If were going to talk about facing good defenses than we should only use good defenses..Not average or bad

[Cougs_Rule]

The truth is we have been dying for a great QB, but really haven't had one since Detmer. And even he came with some warts.

Sarkisian was very good, but benefitted from a great Defense in 96.

Feterick--average. Doman, good, not very good or great. He was blessed with Staley. Beck was very good in 2006, but we had to debate if he had "it," so not great.

Hall put up some exciting numbers and gave us some emotional victories. I would also say he was very good--and unlike former QBs got the benefit of playing with Bronco's very good defense and started more games (three years worth)--hence the most victories. Again, though, not great.

Average was about where I would put Riley. Like Feterick, he could get the job done against inferior opponents, but is never going to pull the Detmer against Miami routine. We haven't had someone like that since Detmer. QBs like that come along once in a generation. We have to be satisfied with Very Good QBs at BYU, which, coupled with Bronco's great defenses will lead to great things. Nelson is not Very Good or even good against good teams. He is average. That, without the turnovers, will lead to victory with our great defense. I support him and hope he does well, but there is no doubt that the QB spot has been a large concern since Hall left. You could just feel the void, and we are now living in it. There was a void between Bosco and Detmer, a void between Detmer and Sarkisian and a void between Sarkisian and Beck. It has been happening for some time, so we just need to be paitient and hope the coaches get it figured out in the future (and go back to the system that made QBs great).

Just about perfectly said. Thank you.

[Cougs_Rule]

Beck was very good in 2006, but we had to debate if he had "it," so not great.

Beck had a rough go of it. He had a not great defense in 2005 and had to score a TON of points to win games (how do you score 50 in a game and still lose?) I'd be willing to bet that if you put Beck in as QB in 2012, BYU is undefeated and not one game is in question. People in 2005 (and now) act like football is a QB game where only one person (or coach) affects the outcome of the game. Beck had it all along, but the 2004-2005 teams did not have it.

Agreed! Unless Doman is running the Doman/ Nelson scheme. There was a much faster
LEarning curve for John, that you don't run into LBs without dangerous results (think USC).

[Cougarbib]

I'm tired of this debate. It has gone on for 3 years now.

I don't want to hear another quarterback mentioned in this thread. This is RN only. I have taken his numbers while starting against top 100 defenses over the last 3 years and calculated his PER as a quarterback.

The results against top 100 ranked defenses?

Read on.

Here is the data: Riley has started against 8 defenses ranked in the top 100 (Washington, Air Force, FSU, Oregon St., TCU, Tulsa, Utah, and BSU)

If you just take his PERs and average them you get a PER of 88.75

If you painstakingly extrapolate all of the data game from game, and add up all the numbers, you get a PER of 108.72.

The win loss record? 5 losses and 3 wins.

Riley is not a good quarterback versus any team that has a top 100 defense or better. We have 3 years' worth of data now. I'd like to see what responses you have, and please remember to not bring up any other quarterbacks in this. This is a "Riley Nelson only" thread. This is why I expect that he won't do much over the rest of this year, until we get to November, if he even makes it that far.

He hasn't ever done anything to show that he has what it takes against even average teams, but I would love to see something different, although I really doubt it will happen at this point.

Who cares whether you want to hear another QB mentioned in this thread. As usual you have an agenda and have posted self serving data.

Nobody in all of Cougarland thinks Riley Nelson is a good QB when playing with fractures in his back. Simply nobody. Not even Riley Nelson.

So quit being a jerk and factor out the seriously injured games. And if you factor out other injured games like Tulsa - that number comes up. Probably to about Kevin Feterik level.

And you were probably one of the ones saying Max Hall only beat who he was supposed to beat until he played poorly and eked out a miracle win over Utah and made the magical I hate Utah Speech.

The issue is that Riley Nelson is so seldom healthy. Everyone gets that Blue.

Almost Everyone else also gets that we do not have great alternatives.

Your old boyfriend - Jake Heaps might have been a reasonable alternative and probably would have started vs Utah - and then if he had improved - probably would have kept the job.

Lark is unproven, but almost certain to get a shot, Nobody had much confidence in Munns. We could see him. You said the OL was Simply Terrible last year. They were not. They were mediocre. This year they are Simply Terrible. QB protection truly sucks and our running game is again mediocre.

Kuresa - could even get converted to QB and I thought Bronco said before the season that AO would not redshirt. Maybe he will. Maybe he will not.

Beck and Hall were both better than a healthy Nelson. I do not think anyone will argue with that.

So why do you keep pissing into the wind - it just gets you an unpleasant beverage and makes you seem mean and disengenious.

Aloha

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[Cougs_Rule]

Bib, as usual, your name calling takes this thread to the sewer plant. If you can't win an argument with ration or reason, please feel free to stop posting. This gay bashing along with gender bashing you have done Previously just continues to reveal who you are. Get a grip or or take your Pots and your kettles and oats on your boats and go take a cruise.

And your asking to handicap Rileys stats is comical.

[SHIZ]

As usual you have an agenda and have posted self serving data...
...
...So quit being a jerk and factor out the seriously injured games. And if you factor out other injured games like Tulsa - that number comes up.

interesting....

[Cougarbib]

The truth is we have been dying for a great QB, but really haven't had one since Detmer. And even he came with some warts.

Sarkisian was very good, but benefitted from a great Defense in 96.

Feterick--average. Doman, good, not very good or great. He was blessed with Staley. Beck was very good in 2006, but we had to debate if he had "it," so not great.

Hall put up some exciting numbers and gave us some emotional victories. I would also say he was very good--and unlike former QBs got the benefit of playing with Bronco's very good defense and started more games (three years worth)--hence the most victories. Again, though, not great.

Average was about where I would put Riley. Like Feterick, he could get the job done against inferior opponents, but is never going to pull the Detmer against Miami routine. We haven't had someone like that since Detmer. QBs like that come along once in a generation. We have to be satisfied with Very Good QBs at BYU, which, coupled with Bronco's great defenses will lead to great things. Nelson is not Very Good or even good against good teams. He is average. That, without the turnovers, will lead to victory with our great defense. I support him and hope he does well, but there is no doubt that the QB spot has been a large concern since Hall left. You could just feel the void, and we are now living in it. There was a void between Bosco and Detmer, a void between Detmer and Sarkisian and a void between Sarkisian and Beck. It has been happening for some time, so we just need to be paitient and hope the coaches get it figured out in the future (and go back to the system that made QBs great).

Just about perfectly said. Thank you.

I agree mostly - certainly conceptually. But I add this. The NFL is really a good barometer.

Jim McMahon and Steve Young set themselves apart.
Separation - Detmer next best and not really a starting NFL QB other than cameo shots. But he beat Miami and won The Heisman. Pretty special.

Separation

Beck and Hall and Sark are at best Detmer without the trophy or the Miami win. But some nice wins - lots of wins - the K-State win and 14-1 deserve something.

Separation
Feterik and whatever else

Except Bosco. Where do we put him. He won that NC trophy behind a very good defense. But it was as cupcake as cupcake gets. No Heisman. Got drafted - but injury kept the NFL from ever seeing him play. IDK where to put him. So out him with Detmer with some mark denoting injury. BTW - Bosco injuries happened at BYU and he was about as mobile as Munns. TIC.

Throw Wilson and Neilson in with Beck and Hall - and there you have it. If you really want to go back - throw Virgil Carter in there after Young and Mac. He was an NFL starter.

Go back and find the NC rings won by un-drafted QBs. It probably happens. But probably rare indeed.

BYU would have had a great shot this year with this D with one of the Top 5 QBs with a FB, RB, OL, and kicker - even with this road warrior schedule. But we don't have that.

I just do not get why this is a surprise to anyone.

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