Taysom Hill and Selective Memory Bias

[Cougarbib]

I took Taysom Hill passing efficiency from BYUCougars.com

I am not sure how to categorize the strength of the UVA and Texas pass defenses. Early in the season. Hill playing with a knee brace in rain delayed games. UVA did not prove to be a great defense last year. Passing defense - not sure. Texas run defense was terrible. Fired coach. Pass defense - not sure. Even Utah. Tough call because we played them early

Tough to Rank due to timing and circumstances
UVA 72.5 - UVA ranked 48th passing efficiency defense vs an ACC type schedule
Texas 68.6 - Texas ranked 38th passing efficiency defense vs a Big 12 type schedule
Utah 78.83 - ranked 85th vs brutal schedule

Above Average Pass Defenses
Washington 99.19 - ranked 10th
Wisconsin 99.97 - ranked 18th
ND 101.14 - ranked 39th

NOTE: Utah, Washington, and Texas were ranked in Top 10 for sacks.

Average Pass Defenses
USU 150.79 - ranked 15th vs MWC type schedule
BSU 159.45 - ranked 73rd vs MWC type schedule
GT 158.50 - ranked 79th vs ACC type schedule
Houston 161.88 - ranked 34th vs weak schedule
Nevada 160.18 - ranked 98th vs MWC type schedule

Below Average Defenses
MTSU 141.41 - ranked 60th vs weak schedule
Idaho State 128.69 - not ranked - somehow Hill chucked 3 interceptions in this one

I guessed at how to group these teams. Clearly Washington, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame were very good Defenses all year long. Hill ranged from 77.83 to 101.14 vs Defenses of that caliber. Texas and Virginia were similar results. Early season. Wierd circumstances. Tough to categorize.

The teams most like who we play in 2014 ranged from 128 to 162.

Happy Days are here again.

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[Cougarbib]

No. I was implying that it is not sound to assume that TH as a junior will hit 147 PER simply because some of our best passers ever hit 147 as juniors.

I actually agree that his PER is going to be much better even if he and the OL do not improve a lick, because the OL, if you look back or forward, looks much better vs mid major and BCS bottom feeders than they look vs good defenses. And in 2014, the opposing defenses will be more generous. Layer some real improvement on top of that gift and 135 PER is quite likely.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

Remember TCU in 06? Did they have a good defense? Remember John Beck standing behind a very good offensive line carving up that defense like a thanksgiving turkey with 2 very badly sprained ankles? Yeah, me too. A good Oline can block just as good against good defenses as it can against bad ones.

"Just as good against good defenses as it can against bad ones". Really? Just as good? You must wonder then why coaches waste a lick of time and effort recruiting good defensive players and good defensive coaches when it really makes no difference.

The is about as logical as it would be to claim that a bad OL can block just as well as a good OL.

If you are struggling with these concepts just cut and paste stats from last year with the bad OL we had all year, and calculate PER for every game. Expect to see some significant swings. Same OL. Same QB. Different defenses.

Calculate our PER excluding Utah, VA, ND, Wisconsin, and Washington. Expect to see that PER or better in 2014 because the SOS will be comparable to that.

Then, just for fun, calculate our PER in those 5 losses. SOS matters. That was my bet.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

I'm not the one struggling with the concept of a good offensive line here. You are a one issue voter cougarbib. To you nothing matters except playing a cake schedule. You attribute every win and loss to either a good opponent or a bad one. My statement about a good offensive line being able to block against a good defense was not to say that a good defense wouldn't win some of the battles. It does imply that a good offensive line will make the difference between success and failure against a good defense the same as it would make the difference between success and failure against a bad defense. Of course when a good offensive line goes up against a bad defense it is easier to succeed.

Go back and read exactly what you wrote. One dimensional. Really. You have made about a dozen posts in 2014 that sound like a broken record about the OL. Yes. OL matters. A dozen other things matter too. Now go reconcile how the same OL produced outstanding PER vs 6 or 7 teams and pathetic PER vs the other 6 teams. Hint: answer is not OL. It was the same OL.

Further, everyone in the world knows that a good OL is better than a bad OL. Substitute any other position in that sentence. Equally true. Equally true - SOS also matters.

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[frdbtr]

No. I was implying that it is not sound to assume that TH as a junior will hit 147 PER simply because some of our best passers ever hit 147 as juniors.

I actually agree that his PER is going to be much better even if he and the OL do not improve a lick, because the OL, if you look back or forward, looks much better vs mid major and BCS bottom feeders than they look vs good defenses. And in 2014, the opposing defenses will be more generous. Layer some real improvement on top of that gift and 135 PER is quite likely.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

Remember TCU in 06? Did they have a good defense? Remember John Beck standing behind a very good offensive line carving up that defense like a thanksgiving turkey with 2 very badly sprained ankles? Yeah, me too. A good Oline can block just as good against good defenses as it can against bad ones.

"Just as good against good defenses as it can against bad ones". Really? Just as good? You must wonder then why coaches waste a lick of time and effort recruiting good defensive players and good defensive coaches when it really makes no difference.

The is about as logical as it would be to claim that a bad OL can block just as well as a good OL.

If you are struggling with these concepts just cut and paste stats from last year with the bad OL we had all year, and calculate PER for every game. Expect to see some significant swings. Same OL. Same QB. Different defenses.

Calculate our PER excluding Utah, VA, ND, Wisconsin, and Washington. Expect to see that PER or better in 2014 because the SOS will be comparable to that.

Then, just for fun, calculate our PER in those 5 losses. SOS matters. That was my bet.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

I'm not the one struggling with the concept of a good offensive line here. You are a one issue voter cougarbib. To you nothing matters except playing a cake schedule. You attribute every win and loss to either a good opponent or a bad one. My statement about a good offensive line being able to block against a good defense was not to say that a good defense wouldn't win some of the battles. It does imply that a good offensive line will make the difference between success and failure against a good defense the same as it would make the difference between success and failure against a bad defense. Of course when a good offensive line goes up against a bad defense it is easier to succeed.

Go back and read exactly what you wrote. One dimensional. Really. You have made about a dozen posts in 2014 that sound like a broken record about the OL. Yes. OL matters. A dozen other things matter too. Now go reconcile how the same OL produced outstanding PER vs 6 or 7 teams and pathetic PER vs the other 6 teams. Hint: answer is not OL. It was the same OL.

Further, everyone in the world knows that a good OL is better than a bad OL. Substitute any other position in that sentence. Equally true. Equally true - SOS also matters.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

I've also made a dozen posts about our recievers last year who were soft and wouldn't fight for balls (other than Hoffman). I am aware that there are a lot of other things that need to improve. You on the other hand change the subject back to the schedule no matter what the original thought was. Now, about the Oline. Why don't you go back and listen to interviews from most all of our coaches and players over the last few months and see what their answer to the #1 thing that needs improved when asked....all of them said Oline. (when referencing the team, not themselves.)

[SpiffCoug]

Can we please stop pounding away at the everything comes down to the schedule key?

[mizzoucoug]

That's it. Let's go back to the WAC. I'm sick of all of these unfair games against nationally relevant opponents. They're big, mean, and they hit hard.

[Cougarbib]

That's it. Let's go back to the WAC. I'm sick of all of these unfair games against nationally relevant opponents. They're big, mean, and they hit hard.

who suggested that anyone go back to anything? Seriously.

Newsflash

The 2014 schedule is already set. I did not schedule those games. The 2014 schedule is comprised of teams more like the ones Taysom Hill delivered a PER well over 150 against last year as a sophomore with a much maligned OL than like the 6 teams he delivered a PER under 100 against.

Those are simply facts.

Back to the OP, Taysom Hill is not as bad a passer as some think when playing opponents of the caliber most of the great one faced. Perhaps the OL is not terrible. Maybe just below average vs those level of opponents. Ditto for the receivers.

Sorry for delivering such good news to people who cannot handle good news.

Taysom Hill is going to deliver a PER over 135 next year. The statistical projection made by Spiff predicting a smaller improvement is flawed. I suspect his PER will be well over 135. Write it down. It would be about 135 if nobody truly improves at all. Hill delivered a 150+ PER vs teams like these last year with the OL and receivers of last year.

Write it down. Ignoring the Bowl Game next year - who other than Texas, UCF, and Boise State are going to hold BYU below 135?

If the OL also makes real improvement, and Hill improves his accuracy and timing, and we have a deep threat, and Williams starts catching passes, and we get a good tight end - expect TH to have a PER at 147 - right there with the other sophomores that went on to play as juniors.

The PER and the wins will be there. Spiff can remind us of the correlation between PER over 135 and wins. The PER will be there 9 times. Maybe more if the offense makes real improvement.

Fans will argue all season whether suddenly Anae Is The Guy - or BYU is just loading up on bad defenses. Just go back to the Houston game last year and cut and paste those debates.

You will find me in the middle. It will not be either - or. It will be both.

SOS is not the only factor. Neither is home vs away. But they are factors and huge ones. 100 vs 150 PER last year.

Reread this post if you think I do not think OL, Receivers, TE, RB receiving, and QB improvement also make a difference. They all make a difference in PER. Quite frankly, a defense that creates turnovers and field position that puts opponents on their heels will also make a QB more efficient - momentum. Special Teams as well. It all helps.

How do you explain the 100 vs 150 PER last Year?

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

[Cougarbib]

No. I was implying that it is not sound to assume that TH as a junior will hit 147 PER simply because some of our best passers ever hit 147 as juniors.

I actually agree that his PER is going to be much better even if he and the OL do not improve a lick, because the OL, if you look back or forward, looks much better vs mid major and BCS bottom feeders than they look vs good defenses. And in 2014, the opposing defenses will be more generous. Layer some real improvement on top of that gift and 135 PER is quite likely.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

Remember TCU in 06? Did they have a good defense? Remember John Beck standing behind a very good offensive line carving up that defense like a thanksgiving turkey with 2 very badly sprained ankles? Yeah, me too. A good Oline can block just as good against good defenses as it can against bad ones.

"Just as good against good defenses as it can against bad ones". Really? Just as good? You must wonder then why coaches waste a lick of time and effort recruiting good defensive players and good defensive coaches when it really makes no difference.

The is about as logical as it would be to claim that a bad OL can block just as well as a good OL.

If you are struggling with these concepts just cut and paste stats from last year with the bad OL we had all year, and calculate PER for every game. Expect to see some significant swings. Same OL. Same QB. Different defenses.

Calculate our PER excluding Utah, VA, ND, Wisconsin, and Washington. Expect to see that PER or better in 2014 because the SOS will be comparable to that.

Then, just for fun, calculate our PER in those 5 losses. SOS matters. That was my bet.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

I'm not the one struggling with the concept of a good offensive line here. You are a one issue voter cougarbib. To you nothing matters except playing a cake schedule. You attribute every win and loss to either a good opponent or a bad one. My statement about a good offensive line being able to block against a good defense was not to say that a good defense wouldn't win some of the battles. It does imply that a good offensive line will make the difference between success and failure against a good defense the same as it would make the difference between success and failure against a bad defense. Of course when a good offensive line goes up against a bad defense it is easier to succeed.

Go back and read exactly what you wrote. One dimensional. Really. You have made about a dozen posts in 2014 that sound like a broken record about the OL. Yes. OL matters. A dozen other things matter too. Now go reconcile how the same OL produced outstanding PER vs 6 or 7 teams and pathetic PER vs the other 6 teams. Hint: answer is not OL. It was the same OL.

Further, everyone in the world knows that a good OL is better than a bad OL. Substitute any other position in that sentence. Equally true. Equally true - SOS also matters.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

I've also made a dozen posts about our recievers last year who were soft and wouldn't fight for balls (other than Hoffman). I am aware that there are a lot of other things that need to improve. You on the other hand change the subject back to the schedule no matter what the original thought was. Now, about the Oline. Why don't you go back and listen to interviews from most all of our coaches and players over the last few months and see what their answer to the #1 thing that needs improved when asked....all of them said Oline. (when referencing the team, not themselves.)

I have a friend who played OL for BYU and in the NFL. He knows 2J. I have posted previously what 2J told him. I am well aware that the OL was not ready or close to ready to play the 2013 schedule. We all saw the emergency recruiting push to put a quick fix in place. We all know that it fell short vs the 2013 schedule. The data I posted showed what the 3 opponents ranked in the Top 10 for sacks did to us. Of you take 5 minutes to look at the projections I have made for next year on offense, OL, QB, backup QB, RB pass catching, receivers, and tight ends are on my list. Not just 1 or 2 things. Add in kicking game, LB, and DL and BYU has holes and shoes to fill.

Luckily, the schedule is forgiving while we reload. Hill staying healthy is the most important issue for 2014.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

[SpiffCoug]

Taysom Hill is going to deliver a PER over 135 next year. The statistical projection made by Spiff predicting a smaller improvement is flawed. I suspect his PER will be well over 135. Write it down. It would be about 135 if nobody truly improves at all. Hill delivered a 150+ PER vs teams like these last year with the OL and receivers of last year.

I not predicting a small improvement. I'm with you, I think he'll be well over 135. I was just showing that our previous SO starters didn't get significantly better their JR years.

Bib you did kind of convert me to a degree, that while 135 is the PER Standard (BYU winning .882 of their games with a 135 PER going back to 1984), it's almost as important to see how a QB is doing against the opponent's defensive PER.

Getting a 135 PER against a team with a DPER of 115 is MUCH more impressive than doing against a team that has a DPER of 140.

Write it down. Ignoring the Bowl Game next year - who other than Texas, UCF, and Boise State are going to hold BYU below 135?

Possibly no one. This could be the first season since 2009 that we have more than half our games reaching the standard.

[Cougarbib]

So it's not fair to throw out bad games for Taysom and not bad games for others but what if the first two games, Virginia and Texas, are removed. He was coming off an injury, huricane conditions, and first two games of the season.

I'd also guess that most of those former QB's didn't start the season and their first games came in the middle of WAC/Mtn West competition that was not only easier but also they had the advantage of watching from the sidelines for 3-4 games early on. (Also, they didn't have Captain Chaos as their mentors )

I have a lot of confidence in Taysoms arm. I'm not sure why there's a lot of QB's out there with strong arms and no accuracy but for some reason I think he's going to get it. Maybe it's my blue goggles.

I posted PER for each game yesterday. I would adjust as follows to best say how good was TH at season end.

Throw out the first 3 games. UVA. Rain. Knee brace. Road. East coast. Hill was under orders not to run and to slide if he had to run. Only 2 full games as a soph. Focused on recovery instead of improvement in offseason.

Texas. See above, except home game.

Utah. Rival. Hill still struggling badly.

Those are outliers. PER was 73 in those 3 games. Hill hit 100 PER vs better teams - Washington, Wisconsin, and ND - late in the season.

Take out the first 3 games and Hill had a PER of nearly 130 last season.

Or take the average of his final 2 games. About 130. Or average the last 4 games. About 130.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

[Cougarbib]

No. I was implying that it is not sound to assume that TH as a junior will hit 147 PER simply because some of our best passers ever hit 147 as juniors.

I actually agree that his PER is going to be much better even if he and the OL do not improve a lick, because the OL, if you look back or forward, looks much better vs mid major and BCS bottom feeders than they look vs good defenses. And in 2014, the opposing defenses will be more generous. Layer some real improvement on top of that gift and 135 PER is quite likely.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

Remember TCU in 06? Did they have a good defense? Remember John Beck standing behind a very good offensive line carving up that defense like a thanksgiving turkey with 2 very badly sprained ankles? Yeah, me too. A good Oline can block just as good against good defenses as it can against bad ones.

Yes. I remember 2006. Do you? You harp on soft receivers and bad OL in 2013. Not that simple.

Data is a wonderful thing if you look at it. Curtis Brown. Johnny Harline. Daniel Coates. Fui Vakapuna. Manase Tonga. These guys catching passes from a future NFL QB made that team. Not the wide receivers. And not just the OL. Imagine that if we had it last year - a backs leading the team in receiving yards most games. Tight ends getting more yards than any receiver in several games. McKay Jacobsen was hardly a tough receiver. And, of course, Arizona(L), BC (L), and TCU ( W) were the only tough regular season games. If we only had fullbacks like Tonga and Fui picking up blitzes, even CB and Coates and Harline blocking a little bit, our OL would suddenly look a lot better.

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