Taysom Hill and Selective Memory Bias

[Mars]

Selective Memory: An ability to remember some facts while apparently forgetting others, especially when they are inconvenient. The ability to retrieve certain facts and events but not others.

Confirmation Bias: The tendency of people to favor information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way.

Warning- These biases may result in false belief perseverance, wishful thinking, overconfidence, and poor decision making.

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I hear "Taysom Hill" mentioned frequently in connection with "Heisman" and "NFL". It seems like a large jump to me, too-quickly made. Here's a look at some stats last year (the negative, mostly, since the positive -10th in individual yardage, for example, or 550 rushing yards against Texas- seem to be more frequently published and referred back to):

2013 Individual Completion Percentage rating:
QB Taysom Hill, BYU. 95th out of 100. 53.9%. (Team: 103rd of 123)
QB Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville. 71%.

Individual Passing Efficiency:
Taysom Hill, 89th of of 100. 118.1. (Team: 98th of 123)
Jameis Winston, Florida State. 184.8.

Team 3rd Down Completion Percentage:
BYU, 85th out of 123. 37.7%.
LSU. 57.1%.

Team Interceptions Thrown:
BYU, 80th out of 123. 14.
Louisville. 4.

Team Sacks Allowed:
BYU, 107th out of 123. 38 sacks for 232 yards lost.
Toledo. 6 sacks for 26 yards lost.

Team Time of Possession:
BYU, 105th out of 123. 27:47 minutes per game.
Bowling Green. 34:03 minutes per game.

http://stats.ncaa.org/rankings/change_sport_year_div" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Taysom can definitely put an offense on his legs and do his very best to win a game all on his own. But just look at the Washington game. 48 pass attempts, 31 rushes, for 79 total offensive plays. And it wasn't nearly enough. And here's the thing- It won't be in the future, either... Not without major improvement to his main weaknesses. Which may (John Beck) or may not (Jake Heaps, Riley Nelson) happen. It has yet to be seen. And is by no means assured.

[frdbtr]

I'm not in the Taysom Hill for Heisman camp, you are correct that his passing stats don't put him in that group yet. Having said that, if Taysom Hill had left BYU and put his name in the NFL draft this year, he would get drafted somewhere simply because of his athletic ability. Someone would take a chance on him and see if they could develop him. If Jake Locker could go as a top 10 pick after never having had 1 season above 60% passing at Washington, someone would take a chance on Hill somewhere in the draft.

[mizzoucoug]

I predicted during his freshman season that he'd be in the running for the Heisman sometime during the rest of his career. He's not a great passer yet, but he'll go down as one of the greats. You are simply stating that he's not there yet. Yay. And you got lambasted for it on CB. Here we just dismiss it as irrelevant when projecting into the future.

[Mars]

I predicted during his freshman season that he'd be in the running for the Heisman sometime during the rest of his career. He's not a great passer yet, but he'll go down as one of the greats. You are simply stating that he's not there yet. Yay. And you got lambasted for it on CB. Here we just dismiss it as irrelevant when projecting into the future.

Haha. Yeah, I did.

I wouldn't call it completely irrelevant though. I mean, Taysom Hill's numbers have to be more relevant to Taysom Hill than anyone else's numbers, at least as a starting point. Spiff is usually good with an expected growth timeline based on past examples (whether that is 15 PER growth per season, or whatever).

[hawkwing]

I predicted during his freshman season that he'd be in the running for the Heisman sometime during the rest of his career. He's not a great passer yet, but he'll go down as one of the greats. You are simply stating that he's not there yet. Yay. And you got lambasted for it on CB. Here we just dismiss it as irrelevant when projecting into the future.

Haha. Yeah, I did.

I wouldn't call it completely irrelevant though. I mean, Taysom Hill's numbers have to be more relevant to Taysom Hill than anyone else's numbers, at least as a starting point. Spiff is usually good with an expected growth timeline based on past examples (whether that is 15 PER growth per season, or whatever).

I would love to see this from Spiff:

What is the average/distribution of PER growth from year 1 to year 2, year 2 to 3, year 3 to 4, etc. as well as, freshman to soph, sophmore to jr, jr to senior.

[jvquarterback]

I predicted during his freshman season that he'd be in the running for the Heisman sometime during the rest of his career. He's not a great passer yet, but he'll go down as one of the greats. You are simply stating that he's not there yet. Yay. And you got lambasted for it on CB. Here we just dismiss it as irrelevant when projecting into the future.

Haha. Yeah, I did.

I wouldn't call it completely irrelevant though. I mean, Taysom Hill's numbers have to be more relevant to Taysom Hill than anyone else's numbers, at least as a starting point. Spiff is usually good with an expected growth timeline based on past examples (whether that is 15 PER growth per season, or whatever).

I would love to see this from Spiff:

What is the average/distribution of PER growth from year 1 to year 2, year 2 to 3, year 3 to 4, etc. as well as, freshman to soph, sophmore to jr, jr to senior.

There's a lot of data on this for NFL QBs. Basically QBs improve the most between years 1-2 ans 2-3 without much improvement afterward.

I don't think anyone would say Hill will be a Heisman contender without improvement. But with improvement, which is the norm for all college QBs and which Hill demonstrated during the season last year, he certainly has the athleticism to become a great QB.

BTW I was wondering what would happen if you posted this here rather than CB. Guess we'll find out.

[scott715]

CB has it on the top 10 page.

[Mars]

CB is right to think that I was insulting them. It's not meant as an insult to anyone here.

Taysom got worse from his Freshman year to his Sophomore year (statistically). Riley Nelson and Jake Locker both had worse Senior seasons than they did as Juniors. But by all expectations, Taysom should see a big jump in 2014. A 20 PER jump maybe, Spiff?

[SpiffCoug]

I'll put together some stuff this weekend.

[imuakahuku]

I'll put together some stuff this weekend.

LOL. Homework!

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