Taysom Hill and Selective Memory Bias

[Mars]

I'll put together some stuff this weekend.

LOL. Homework!

Don't let him fool you, he actually likes this stuff.


Thanks Spiff!

[Cougarbib]

Op is objective and fair. Selective in reminding of the negative, but acknowledged the rushing prowess.

And. He was a sophomore. Because of injury, he did not play much as a freshman and had to rehab which slowed progress.

I will make a bold prediction. Even if he does not improve a lick, the schedule next year will give him 15-20 PER points. I think he will also improve. I expect a 25 PER point improvement.

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[SpiffCoug]

Ok here's what I did (I've now got box scores loaded for QBs going all the way back through Marc Wilson - shout out to CougarStats.com which is a phenomenal website!)

Took the averages for all SO and JR quarterbacks at BYU and then multiplied those average games by 13 (for an average season) to see what we can expect:

SO QBs
Average Game: 18.8 of 32.1 (.587 completion) for 256.8 yards with 1.6 TDs and 1.1 INTs for a 135.18 PER and sacked 2.4 times.
Average Season: 245 of 417 (.587 completion) for 3.339 yards with 20.5 TDs and 14.7 INTs for a 135.18 PER and sacked 31 times.

Taysom Hill, SO, Season: 236 of 438 (.539 completion) for 2,938 yards with 19 TDs and 14 INTs for a 118.15 PER and sacked 38 times.

JR QBs
Average Game: 20.4 of 33.3 (.614 completion) for 270.8 yards with 2.0 TDs and 1.2 INTs for a 142.46 PER and sacked 2.3 times.
Season Average: 266 of 433 (.614 completion) for 3,520 yards with 26 TDs and 15 INTs for a 142.46 PER and sacked 29 times.

The improvement is 8.5% in completions, 3.8% in attempts, 5.4% in yards, 26.1% in touchdowns, 2.4% in interceptions, 5.4% in PER, 4.5% in completion percentage, and 6.5% reduction in sacks.

If that holds true for Hill, his JR season may look something like this:
256 of 455 (.563 completion) for 3,097 yards with 24 TDs and 14 INTs for a 124.69 PEr and 36 sacks.

[SpiffCoug]

Op is objective and fair. Selective in reminding of the negative, but acknowledged the rushing prowess.

And. He was a sophomore. Because of injury, he did not play much as a freshman and had to rehab which slowed progress.

I will make a bold prediction. Even if he does not improve a lick, the schedule next year will give him 15-20 PER points. I think he will also improve. I expect a 25 PER point improvement.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

I think THill can see a 15-20 PER point improvement. For instance if he had completed 60% of his passes instead of 53.9%, (and if his TD%, INT% and YPCom remained the same) his PER would have gone from 118.15 to 134.57.

[Mars]

SO QBs
Average Season: 245 of 417 (.587 completion) for 3.339 yards with 20.5 TDs and 14.7 INTs for a 135.18 PER and sacked 31 times.

Taysom Hill, SO, Season: 236 of 438 (.539 completion) for 2,938 yards with 19 TDs and 14 INTs for a 118.15 PER and sacked 38 times.

JR QBs
Season Average: 266 of 433 (.614 completion) for 3,520 yards with 26 TDs and 15 INTs for a 142.46 PER and sacked 29 times.

The improvement is 8.5% in completions, 3.8% in attempts, 5.4% in yards, 26.1% in touchdowns, 2.4% in interceptions, 5.4% in PER, 4.5% in completion percentage, and 6.5% reduction in sacks.

If that holds true for Hill, his JR season may look something like this:
256 of 455 (.563 completion) for 3,097 yards with 24 TDs and 14 INTs for a 124.69 PEr and 36 sacks.

Not only am I impressed with your data, but I'm impressed with how quickly you've put it all together. Though the numbers aren't quite as impressive as I expected.

Thanks Spiff.

[Stirfry]

So it's not fair to throw out bad games for Taysom and not bad games for others but what if the first two games, Virginia and Texas, are removed. He was coming off an injury, huricane conditions, and first two games of the season.

I'd also guess that most of those former QB's didn't start the season and their first games came in the middle of WAC/Mtn West competition that was not only easier but also they had the advantage of watching from the sidelines for 3-4 games early on. (Also, they didn't have Captain Chaos as their mentors )

I have a lot of confidence in Taysoms arm. I'm not sure why there's a lot of QB's out there with strong arms and no accuracy but for some reason I think he's going to get it. Maybe it's my blue goggles.

[Cougarbib]

Spiff indicated his data is all juniors vs all sophomores which means there is likely a lot of first time starter junior data masking how well juniors who played as sophomores improved. Perhaps the analysis could be refined to include data for only the QBS that played as sophomores.

Junior to senior would be less skewed because few BYU QBS did not have to wait until their senior year to start. Even Do man got 2 or 3 starts as a junior. A guy or 2 like Lark may slightly cloud that comparison.

But soph to junior analysis would be clouded by guys like Bosco. Young only got a couple of sophomore starts.

Guys like Feterick, Detmer, etc., that played quite a bit as a soph and as a junior, would be interesting to look at.

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[SpiffCoug]

Very good catch Bib. I'll rerun the numbers to only include QBs who played as juniors and sophomores. This will will remove sophomores like Berry who didn't play as juniors or juniors like Bosco who didn't play as sophomores. Might give us a much better indication.

[SpiffCoug]

So I re-ran the numbers and there could be an argument to be made that Hill might not improve all that much. I only ran the numbers for Sophomore QBs that also played as Juniors.

So the list was actually pretty small: John Beck, Ty Detmer, Brett Engemann, Kevin Feterik, Max Hall, Jim McMahon and John Walsh. And the improvement from their SO to JR years, taken as a whole, wasn't all that great.

Their SO years:
77 games 49 wins (.636)
1519 of 2542 (.598) for 21,729 yards with 136 TDs and 82 INTs for a 142.76 PER sacked 192 times.

Their JR years:
98 games 69 wins (.704)
2192 of 3511 (.624) for 29,128 yards with 228 TDs and 113 INTs for a 147.11 PER sacked 195 times.

So if that level of improvement holds, we're looking at season like this from Hill:
267 of 477 (.559) fro 3,084 yards with 25 TDs and 15 INTs for a 121.14 PER and sacked 30 times.

That's still a little low on the PER side for my likings. I think we'll see a better than 3% improvement in PER.

[frdbtr]

So I re-ran the numbers and there could be an argument to be made that Hill might not improve all that much. I only ran the numbers for Sophomore QBs that also played as Juniors.

So the list was actually pretty small: John Beck, Ty Detmer, Brett Engemann, Kevin Feterik, Max Hall, Jim McMahon and John Walsh. And the improvement from their SO to JR years, taken as a whole, wasn't all that great.

Their SO years:
77 games 49 wins (.636)
1519 of 2542 (.598) for 21,729 yards with 136 TDs and 82 INTs for a 142.76 PER sacked 192 times.

Their JR years:
98 games 69 wins (.704)
2192 of 3511 (.624) for 29,128 yards with 228 TDs and 113 INTs for a 147.11 PER sacked 195 times.

So if that level of improvement holds, we're looking at season like this from Hill:
267 of 477 (.559) fro 3,084 yards with 25 TDs and 15 INTs for a 121.14 PER and sacked 30 times.

That's still a little low on the PER side for my likings. I think we'll see a better than 3% improvement in PER.

No, the argument that he may improve a ton can be made simply because if he happens to improve to a 147 per, that would be a huge jump (147 being the average per of the JR's you researched).