Taysom Hill and Selective Memory Bias

[SpiffCoug]

True. I was just showing that the juniors who played as sophomores didn't make a huge jump.

[frdbtr]

True. I was just showing that the juniors who played as sophomores didn't make a huge jump.

Yeah, I know. I am trying to temper my excitement with him. He had some really bad throwing games last year, but he also showed some flashes of brilliance with both his arm and legs. I am hoping that having a year under his belt with the offense and hoping the offensive line improves a bunch in pass blocking and we see what this kid is capable of. I have heard reports from guys who watched camp who said that he has looked really good so far even without his primary receivers being in camp.

[Schmoe]

Kid got married today, by the way, congrats to him. Hopefully it doesn't negatively affect his QB play.

[Cougarbib]

So I re-ran the numbers and there could be an argument to be made that Hill might not improve all that much. I only ran the numbers for Sophomore QBs that also played as Juniors.

So the list was actually pretty small: John Beck, Ty Detmer, Brett Engemann, Kevin Feterik, Max Hall, Jim McMahon and John Walsh. And the improvement from their SO to JR years, taken as a whole, wasn't all that great.

Their SO years:
77 games 49 wins (.636)
1519 of 2542 (.598) for 21,729 yards with 136 TDs and 82 INTs for a 142.76 PER sacked 192 times.

Their JR years:
98 games 69 wins (.704)
2192 of 3511 (.624) for 29,128 yards with 228 TDs and 113 INTs for a 147.11 PER sacked 195 times.

So if that level of improvement holds, we're looking at season like this from Hill:
267 of 477 (.559) fro 3,084 yards with 25 TDs and 15 INTs for a 121.14 PER and sacked 30 times.

That's still a little low on the PER side for my likings. I think we'll see a better than 3% improvement in PER.

No, the argument that he may improve a ton can be made simply because if he happens to improve to a 147 per, that would be a huge jump (147 being the average per of the JR's you researched).

And if he does not improve to 147?

Have you considered that those guys just might be much better passers.

But Hill has an ace up his sleeve that those other guys did not have.

Soph season stats from arguably toughest BYU schedule ever followed by
JR season stats from a much easier schedule

I still think Hill gets north of 135 PER this season with minor real improvement on top of a schedule booster shot.

For those that just do not get how much SOS matters, just take Hill PER stats game by game and organize them into three groupings based on the passing defense strength for each opponent season rating.

Group A - Above Average Defenses
Utah, Etc.

Group B - Average Defenses - ranked 45-75

Group C - Below Average Defenses
Idaho, Idaho State, NMSU, Hawaii, etc.


I have not done this, But, I will bet a J-Dawg that a pattern will emerge and that if we then look at SOS of the years involved for Mac, Feterik, etc., and list and group the opponents, the huge PER gap described above will shrink substantially with some SOS equalization.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

[frdbtr]

So I re-ran the numbers and there could be an argument to be made that Hill might not improve all that much. I only ran the numbers for Sophomore QBs that also played as Juniors.

So the list was actually pretty small: John Beck, Ty Detmer, Brett Engemann, Kevin Feterik, Max Hall, Jim McMahon and John Walsh. And the improvement from their SO to JR years, taken as a whole, wasn't all that great.

Their SO years:
77 games 49 wins (.636)
1519 of 2542 (.598) for 21,729 yards with 136 TDs and 82 INTs for a 142.76 PER sacked 192 times.

Their JR years:
98 games 69 wins (.704)
2192 of 3511 (.624) for 29,128 yards with 228 TDs and 113 INTs for a 147.11 PER sacked 195 times.

So if that level of improvement holds, we're looking at season like this from Hill:
267 of 477 (.559) fro 3,084 yards with 25 TDs and 15 INTs for a 121.14 PER and sacked 30 times.

That's still a little low on the PER side for my likings. I think we'll see a better than 3% improvement in PER.

No, the argument that he may improve a ton can be made simply because if he happens to improve to a 147 per, that would be a huge jump (147 being the average per of the JR's you researched).

And if he does not improve to 147?

Have you considered that those guys just might be much better passers.

But Hill has an ace up his sleeve that those other guys did not have.

Soph season stats from arguably toughest BYU schedule ever followed by
JR season stats from a much easier schedule

I still think Hill gets north of 135 PER this season with minor real improvement on top of a schedule booster shot.

For those that just do not get how much SOS matters, just take Hill PER stats game by game and organize them into three groupings based on the passing defense strength for each opponent season rating.

Group A - Above Average Defenses
Utah, Etc.

Group B - Average Defenses - ranked 45-75

Group C - Below Average Defenses
Idaho, Idaho State, NMSU, Hawaii, etc.


I have not done this, But, I will bet a J-Dawg that a pattern will emerge and that if we then look at SOS of the years involved for Mac, Feterik, etc., and list and group the opponents, the huge PER gap described above will shrink substantially with some SOS equalization.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

If you are implying that I will be calling for his head if he doesn't is way off base. I still believe that Hill's PER will improve nearly directly based on offensive line play. If the Oline actually learns how to pass block, Hill's QB numbers will improve a ton, if they continue to let blockers past with barely a glance in the rushers direction, Hill's passing will still struggle. This year will be all about the offensive line, just like it was last year.

[Cougarbib]

No. I was implying that it is not sound to assume that TH as a junior will hit 147 PER simply because some of our best passers ever hit 147 as juniors.

I actually agree that his PER is going to be much better even if he and the OL do not improve a lick, because the OL, if you look back or forward, looks much better vs mid major and BCS bottom feeders than they look vs good defenses. And in 2014, the opposing defenses will be more generous. Layer some real improvement on top of that gift and 135 PER is quite likely.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

[SpiffCoug]

Getting to 135 will be HUGE improvement and make BYU very tough to beat.

[frdbtr]

No. I was implying that it is not sound to assume that TH as a junior will hit 147 PER simply because some of our best passers ever hit 147 as juniors.

I actually agree that his PER is going to be much better even if he and the OL do not improve a lick, because the OL, if you look back or forward, looks much better vs mid major and BCS bottom feeders than they look vs good defenses. And in 2014, the opposing defenses will be more generous. Layer some real improvement on top of that gift and 135 PER is quite likely.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

Remember TCU in 06? Did they have a good defense? Remember John Beck standing behind a very good offensive line carving up that defense like a thanksgiving turkey with 2 very badly sprained ankles? Yeah, me too. A good Oline can block just as good against good defenses as it can against bad ones.

[Cougarbib]

No. I was implying that it is not sound to assume that TH as a junior will hit 147 PER simply because some of our best passers ever hit 147 as juniors.

I actually agree that his PER is going to be much better even if he and the OL do not improve a lick, because the OL, if you look back or forward, looks much better vs mid major and BCS bottom feeders than they look vs good defenses. And in 2014, the opposing defenses will be more generous. Layer some real improvement on top of that gift and 135 PER is quite likely.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

Remember TCU in 06? Did they have a good defense? Remember John Beck standing behind a very good offensive line carving up that defense like a thanksgiving turkey with 2 very badly sprained ankles? Yeah, me too. A good Oline can block just as good against good defenses as it can against bad ones.

"Just as good against good defenses as it can against bad ones". Really? Just as good? You must wonder then why coaches waste a lick of time and effort recruiting good defensive players and good defensive coaches when it really makes no difference.

The is about as logical as it would be to claim that a bad OL can block just as well as a good OL.

If you are struggling with these concepts just cut and paste stats from last year with the bad OL we had all year, and calculate PER for every game. Expect to see some significant swings. Same OL. Same QB. Different defenses.

Calculate our PER excluding Utah, VA, ND, Wisconsin, and Washington. Expect to see that PER or better in 2014 because the SOS will be comparable to that.

Then, just for fun, calculate our PER in those 5 losses. SOS matters. That was my bet.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

[frdbtr]

No. I was implying that it is not sound to assume that TH as a junior will hit 147 PER simply because some of our best passers ever hit 147 as juniors.

I actually agree that his PER is going to be much better even if he and the OL do not improve a lick, because the OL, if you look back or forward, looks much better vs mid major and BCS bottom feeders than they look vs good defenses. And in 2014, the opposing defenses will be more generous. Layer some real improvement on top of that gift and 135 PER is quite likely.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

Remember TCU in 06? Did they have a good defense? Remember John Beck standing behind a very good offensive line carving up that defense like a thanksgiving turkey with 2 very badly sprained ankles? Yeah, me too. A good Oline can block just as good against good defenses as it can against bad ones.

"Just as good against good defenses as it can against bad ones". Really? Just as good? You must wonder then why coaches waste a lick of time and effort recruiting good defensive players and good defensive coaches when it really makes no difference.

The is about as logical as it would be to claim that a bad OL can block just as well as a good OL.

If you are struggling with these concepts just cut and paste stats from last year with the bad OL we had all year, and calculate PER for every game. Expect to see some significant swings. Same OL. Same QB. Different defenses.

Calculate our PER excluding Utah, VA, ND, Wisconsin, and Washington. Expect to see that PER or better in 2014 because the SOS will be comparable to that.

Then, just for fun, calculate our PER in those 5 losses. SOS matters. That was my bet.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

I'm not the one struggling with the concept of a good offensive line here. You are a one issue voter cougarbib. To you nothing matters except playing a cake schedule. You attribute every win and loss to either a good opponent or a bad one. My statement about a good offensive line being able to block against a good defense was not to say that a good defense wouldn't win some of the battles. It does imply that a good offensive line will make the difference between success and failure against a good defense the same as it would make the difference between success and failure against a bad defense. Of course when a good offensive line goes up against a bad defense it is easier to succeed.