On Paper Texas Wins

[EM_Puma]

I have done no analysis beyond looking at how Texas performed last week. It's very difficult as a fan to not have some confidence that we can now beat Texas after losing to them by one point in Austin, followed by our 40-21 triumph last year in LES.

The keys to the win last season was an uncanny occurrence where Taysom rushed for 259 yards and three touchdowns while the Cougars collectively rushed for a school-record 550 yards in the win. Such a scenario did not repeat itself last year in any subsequent games and should not be expected this season. It was a one-time scenario where all the planets aligned.

Likely Texas will scheme to have someone watching/shadowing TH, but you don't know for certain as they are cocky enough to believe that they can match up one-to-one with our team and win the various battles. Texas will have seen how Connecticut schemed more to stop our deep ball threat that had been raised all fall camp by constantly dropping 8 in coverage, but was done in by the short range shot to our RB's coming out of the backfield. I have to believe that success will pivot on two issues--we are successful with a couple long throws, and we produce at least 100 yards on the ground.

I have no doubt BYU could win this game, but on paper I don't see it and I had believed that lighting almost never strikes twice in the same place.

Texas 35 BYU 21

[snoscythe]

lighting almost never strikes twice in the same place.

Except it does...often and inevitably:

http://stormhighway.com/lightning_never ... e_myth.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[DeVon]

Texas 35 BYU 21

I can imagine several scenarios where BYU loses this game. In fact, I would agree with you that Texas still has a slight edge in this game. That being said, in none of those scenarios did I have Texas scoring 35 points. If Texas wins this game it will be 17-13 or 21-17, or even 10-7. I do not see an 8 touchdown day with these defenses.

[DeVon]

Now that I've posted my previous post, I am going to go ahead and contradict myself.

Is it way out there to say that we are just better than Texas? We have played 4 times and we are 3-1, with our three wins being by 5, 41, and 19 points and their one win coming by 1 point...at home...in a major down year for our program. I know it goes against logic to posit that we may be better than a national powerhouse with elite talent, but maybe this is just a case of matchups and scheme going in our favor. Maybe we just always get lucky in our timing of when we get Texas in that they are always down. Either way, I'm excited to see the results of this game, especially because I am making the trip

[redneckjedi]

Now that I've posted my previous post, I am going to go ahead and contradict myself.

Is it way out there to say that we are just better than Texas? We have played 4 times and we are 3-1, with our three wins being by 5, 41, and 19 points and their one win coming by 1 point...at home...in a major down year for our program. I know it goes against logic to posit that we may be better than a national powerhouse with elite talent, but maybe this is just a case of matchups and scheme going in our favor. Maybe we just always get lucky in our timing of when we get Texas in that they are always down. Either way, I'm excited to see the results of this game, especially because I am making the trip

Yes. The wins of 5 and 41 were in '87 and '88, before probably anyone involved in this year's game was even born. Those scores tell us nothing about what will happen Saturday. Even the 2011 game is barely relevant - that was Doman and Heaps against a Mack Brown / Manny Diaz defense.

Now, is our team better than Texas this year? Possibly. I think our team is improved from last year. I think Texas has suspensions and dismissals and a coaching change that are going to cause them problems short term, but make them better long term. They also have had some key injuries (QB, center) that are tough to replace in just a week. We are going into their place, and they're mad about last year.

Some of the key points about Texas for me:
1) Swoopes will be the QB for Texas. http://www.texassports.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=4429" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; He has little experience, and is a run-first quarterback. Bronco's defenses typically do very well against this type of quarterback, and are usually good against the run in general.
2) The Texas defense was fantastic against North Texas. http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=400547836" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; They allowed 94 total yards for the game. They gave up 1.8 yards per carry on 43 attempts, and 15 yards passing on 3-17. UNT threw more picks than completions. They had a defensive score on a pick 6, and the only UNT points were off a bad C-QB exchange from the backup center that was recovered in the endzone.
3) Speaking of the bad exchange, the last time BYU faced a team breaking in a new guy at center, this happened: " onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Doubt we'll see the same outcome much, because I expect little passing, but the center is the QB of the OL, and if he's confused, the TFL opportunities will be numerous.
4) Texas was only 4-15 on 3rd down against UNT, who is probably not the best defense in the world. Only two of their touchdowns came from drives starting behind their own 40. Part of that may have been that Ash had his bell rung on the first play of the game, but given the fact that their two top rushers averaged 5+ YPC, this is surprising.
5) Two rushers with 5+ YPC? Well, those averages are inflated by carries of 42 and 26. Means the OL is not going to overwhelm us like Wisconsin or ND last year, but we'll need watch for the big play.

My conclusions are that the Texas O is going to struggle, and ours will as well. Yards will be hard to come by, and we'll have to be really good about ball security if we're going to get this one. If we can take away the run with good penetration on the Texas OL, our punting game can beat theirs and keep them on their side of the field, and we protect the football on offense, we can win a low scoring affair. If our offense manages to impose their will with good execution, we can probably get 24+, but I'm not counting on it. If we can't stop the run because our DL doesn't get enough push, it'll be tough to pull this one out.

[EM_Puma]

Now that I've posted my previous post, I am going to go ahead and contradict myself.

Is it way out there to say that we are just better than Texas? We have played 4 times and we are 3-1, with our three wins being by 5, 41, and 19 points and their one win coming by 1 point...at home...in a major down year for our program. I know it goes against logic to posit that we may be better than a national powerhouse with elite talent, but maybe this is just a case of matchups and scheme going in our favor. Maybe we just always get lucky in our timing of when we get Texas in that they are always down. Either way, I'm excited to see the results of this game, especially because I am making the trip

These are times when I would really relish being wrong in my observation.

I don't believe it is applicable to ever factor in that first win as it happened some time ago. Maybe as you allude, Like Putah vs BYU, we have Texas's number. We should be so lucky. I believe in 2012 when we were last in Austin, that Texas was in a rebuilding year and they demonstrated in the games subsequent to our win in 2013 that they had definitely improved from 2012.

[Cougarbib]

Part of how you get two rushers to average over 5 yards is to have a legitimate throwing threat that can stretch the field far and wide. Texas had that. Now they may not have that.

Another part is to play against an inferior defense lacking in depth and wear them down. BYU has a better defense than Texas faced last week.

Unfortunately, our punter is not going to dominate much of anything.

I have heard rumor that we will be travelling a kicker that has a little more leg for kickoffs. If it comes down to a long field goal, though, Texas will win that battle.

This will be a low scoring dog fight just like I predicted last year - wait - no - yes - that is what I predicted last year - wait - no - I might have predicted Texas would thrash us. Check with BYULV on this game. He assured me right before kickoff that BYU would win last year. LV - what is your call this year?

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

[NDCougar]

Good thing games are not won on paper......if that were the case we lose this game and win out.

I think BYU will come in with a lot of confidence. UT will want to win this after last year. Neither of these factor into "on paper". How many times should BYU have beaten Utah on paper? Will BYU come out flat with the big crowd? Can we jump on them early (if so I feel good)? Will TH get nervous with his in-laws coming in from College Station?

UT still has major issues on offense, new coach, new QB etc. I think their defense can slow TH, it could be a grind them out game and will really depend on who can make a few plays. TO's will be huge, if BYU gets down by 10+ it is over and I likewise for UT. I believe it will be a close game and we will sit here Saturday night and we will point to 2-3 plays that gave us a win/loss. This will not be old school BYU where the score is 45-41.....it will be 24-20 type game. Who will make the plays?

Given all this I will probably be wrong!

[DeVon]

Yes. The wins of 5 and 41 were in '87 and '88, before probably anyone involved in this year's game was even born. Those scores tell us nothing about what will happen Saturday. Even the 2011 game is barely relevant - that was Doman and Heaps against a Mack Brown / Manny Diaz defense.

Yes, I know that the '87, '88, and '11 games don't tell us anything about how this game will go this weekend, my thought (and I know there are holes in my thought) was more of a general wonderment that maybe our program just matches up well with their program. It is not completely outside of the realm of possibility to imagine that a physical, strong, disciplined, team-oriented program, could match up well or even have the advantage over a fast, talent-rich, entitled (too strong?), highlight reel program. Maybe not, this theory certainly doesn't work when considering FSU. I like our chances this week for 2 reasons:

1. I thought that our defense looked a little more like the Bronco bend-but-don't-break defense of a few years ago. I am hoping that this is because our secondary was a little thin as a result of suspensions and that Howell will draw up a more aggressive package this week. If so, I like our chances of containing Gray, Brown, and Swoopes.

2. Taysom was amazing. His measurables were great but even more so I thought his decisions were great. It looked as though the game has slowed down for him and, as a result, we have that experienced, smart game manager that we haven't had since Max Hall 2009. The bonus to this, of course, is that our game manager has talent like we haven't seen for a LONG time...maybe ever at BYU. Combine this with Jamaal and I think we will be able to score 24, which is all I think we need to win this one.

[SpiffCoug]

On paper Texas is a mess. Mass suspensions, injuries to key, experienced players, new coaching staff.

On paper this is a game that BYU honestly should win.