BYU SOS

[snoscythe]

I was hesitant to do it the way you are suggesting, but after reading this:

http://www.nationalchamps.net/NCAA/BCS/ ... xplain.htm

The BCS way of calculating SOS would take out head to head results AND I-AA wins (but NOT I-AA losses).

I will redo it at some point, but it may not be until after the Virginia game.

No worries man--I don't mean to be a nag. I appreciate you putting it all together for the rest of us leeches.

[BOID]

At any rate, I do believe that BYU's SOS will steadily improve through the course of the season.

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Not sure I see the SOS improving. I would love to be wrong, but not sure I see BYU's schedule getting increasingly tougher vs the rest of the P5's. A lot of P5's have been playing patsy games, once the conference schedule starts their SOS will bump up.

Not sure how BYU's SOS gets boost late in the season by playing Savannah State, MTSU, UNLV etc. The next few weeks we play good teams (not top tier) which may help a bit but not a lot.

What I meant was, that BYU opponent teams, including those BYU has already played, may end up winning more games than pre-season predictions, and more than current predictions. Houston, Virginia, Cal, and even UNR could win more than anticipated. Some had written UT off after the blowout, but they looked pretty good against over-rated UCLA. Also, Virginia beat ranked Louisville. Anyway, I was thinking of the overall SOS as anticipated for 12 opponents, compared to the pre-season predicted SOS. But you are correct in that the running SOS will take a hit during those weeks when weaker oppononents are played.

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[NDCougar]

BOID, got it. Makes sense.

[byufan4ever]

I've taken out all head-to-head results and I-AA wins (but not I-AA losses).

You're welcome.

[YNot]

Some had written UT off after the blowout, but they looked pretty good against over-rated UCLA. Also, Virginia beat ranked Louisville. Anyway, I was thinking of the overall SOS as anticipated for 12 opponents, compared to the pre-season predicted SOS. But you are correct in that the running SOS will take a hit during those weeks when weaker oppononents are played.

The EXACT same thing happened last year with Texas. They were a HORRIBLE team after BYU exposed their weaknesses. They later had a 6-game win streak, including a convincing win over Oklahoma. They finished the regular season with 8 wins, 7-2 in the Big 12, and had a chance at the Big 12 championship heading into the final game at Baylor.

I actually expect a similar 2014 season for Texas. 7-8 wins; 7-2 or 6-3 in the Big 12, with an outside chance at the Big 12 championship if they upset Baylor or Oklahoma.

[byufan4ever]

Updated SOS for last weekend's games:

I made some further changes like taking BYU completely out of the Opp's Opp Record which I think is the correct thing to do. This definitely looks soft although it needs a comparison.

[byufan4ever]

Here is updated SOS through Week 5. Since I only count 1-AA losses and not wins, I've had to really check the conference of the teams because many former 1-AA are now part of the Sun Belt and MAC. I added a notes column for last week's results:

I will try to put together one for Utah as well so that we have something to compare it to.

[byufan4ever]

So now I've added Utah's SOS in so that we can compare:

I also added the Weighted Ave which is 2/3 Opp Win % and 1/3 Opp's Opp Win %. That's the number that the BCS used for SOS. So, BYU's got the better SOS so far but Utah's got a tough road ahead.

[Cougarbib]

Some of our very worst opponents play money aka rollover type games early in the season. Now they will settle into their conference games and may actually win a game here and there. Not many. Maybe 1 or 2 each.