Big 12 talk during the game

[BYUBALLIN]

Espn was saying during the game that if the Big 12 gets left out of the playoff they will have no choice but to add BYU and another team..question is who would be that second team.

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[Cougs_Rule]

First, Big12 wannabes better hope some team beats TCU, or they are a practical shoe-in given the cannibalization of other P5 conferences. If TCU gets in there is no compelling reason to change.
Second, even if Big12 gets left out, they may pout and complain all the way to the bank with their $28+ million per team they don't want carved up for two more teams.
Third, if they do fold under the pressure, they would likely add two teams, but BYU is not a lock by any stretch.
Fourth, the other team that would get strong consideration is Cincy.

[BYUBALLIN]

they mentioned colo st or Ucf..

[Schmoe]

How is TCU doing well in a P5 conference? I thought that the move had no positive impact on them and would relegate them to mediocrity forever. Weird...

[Cougs_Rule]

How is TCU doing well in a P5 conference? I thought that the move had no positive impact on them and would relegate them to mediocrity forever. Weird...

Credit TCU a and Patrerson. A few years struggling to adapt and now top of the slightly overrated Big12. It's where utah wanted to be but isn't

[BYUBALLIN]

First, Big12 wannabes better hope some team beats TCU, or they are a practical shoe-in given the cannibalization of other P5 conferences. If TCU gets in there is no compelling reason to change.
Second, even if Big12 gets left out, they may pout and complain all the way to the bank with their $28+ million per team they don't want carved up for two more teams.
Third, if they do fold under the pressure, they would likely add two teams, but BYU is not a lock by any stretch.
Fourth, the other team that would get strong consideration is Cincy.

Tcu will most likely get bumped my miss st if they win out off strength of schdules. They don't wanna split the pot but the bigger picture is they want a title shot and that may not happen without a conf title game. BYU is the only logical choice no team ur gonna add that has tv market, ticket sales, following of a BYU. There r certain standards that have to be meet before the big 12 or any pore 5 will consider you. BYU is the only one that does.

[Fido]

Sports talk radio this morning was saying that there is buzz that the Big 10 is looking to expand to 16 and wants to extend invites as soon as this off-season. If you believe that the conferences will eventually be at 16, it is best to be one of the first to go as you get the "better" picks if you will.

[BYUBALLIN]

Sports talk radio this morning was saying that there is buzz that the Big 10 is looking to expand to 16 and wants to extend invites as soon as this off-season. If you believe that the conferences will eventually be at 16, it is best to be one of the first to go as you get the "better" picks if you will.

I would love the big 10 growing up in Illinois I loved the big 10..I hope this is true

[scott715]

If that is the case maybe the Big12 will disband.

[snoscythe]

People focusing on the National Championship are missing the mark--that's a tangential concern. The biggest factor in conference realignment is TV money. All the p5 conferences have just renegotiated their football broadcast rights in the last couple of years, which is what drove the realignment craze. Conferences were adding television markets to increase their television revenue. The PAC12 didn't pick up Colorado instead of BYU because Colorado was a better team that would improve the conference. They added Colorado because the CU Buffs delivered every media market in the state of Colorado into the PAC12 TV negotiation portfolio. They already had the state of Utah covered with the Utes, and it's easier to value and leverage delivering an entire state in CU than valuing the marginal increase in the state of Utah + marginal increases in nationwide viewership you would get with BYU.

The Big10 added Maryland and Rutgers, giving them inroads to the NYC and DC media markets. They parlayed that into a TV deal this Spring with ESPN worth $1 billion that currently gives each school ~$30 million a year, and will ramp up to ~$45 million a year. The deal runs through the mid 2020s, as do all the other P5 TV deals.

Even with carriage issues with the PAC12 Network, that conference is delivering ~$20 million per school (Utah and Colorado slightly less as newbies) and in on track to reach over $30 million apiece, even if the PAC12 Network doesn't make any inroads. That TV deal runs through 2023-24.

The SEC redid their TV contract in 2013--right after picking up Texas A&M and Missouri in 2012, delivering multiple Texas TV markets and the KC and St. Louis markets. The SEC deal lasts through 2023-24, and delivers close to $55 million per school.

The ACC did not expand for football. They did replace departing Maryland with Louisville though, but that was after they signed their TV deal in 2012. However, the ACC made waves by expanding in basketball just prior to signing their deal with ESPN--an expansion that nets the teams ~$4 million MORE than they would have received without it....and that's just hoops. The ACC's football broadcast rights are locking in until 2026-27 and delivers ~$17 million per school currently, but will escalate.

The Big 12 redid their broadcast rights without expansion in 2012 as well (but after adding TCU and West Virginia to replace Nebraska, Colorado, TA&M, and Missouri), a contract that runs through 2024-25 and delivers $20 million per school.

So you see the trend is that expansion is TELEVISON $$$ driven, not excellence or national championship driven. A&M left the Big12 because they felt they $ from the Longhorn Network threw the Big12 out of balance. Everyone has been making moves based on money.

Based on history, I only see future expansion or realignment if it makes more money. No TV deals expire for a decade, so the leverage is lacking on the part of the conferences, but a conference such as the ACC or Big12 that is behind in TV dollars might look to expand to open the door to a renegotiation, but that expansion is going to have to make TV sense. Think the Big 12 adding FSU and Miami (who both are making $3 million less in the ACC) to open the door to Florida.

BYU is not a shoo in to any expansions or realignments, and there aren't TV negotiations ongoing anywhere to drive expansion or realignment. BYU will continue to snipe at the Big 12 to say "hey! they need a championship game!", but that's not a terribly strong argument for those teams to all take 8%+ of their TV money and give it to BYU without a renegotiation of their current broadcast deal. Think Kansas, Iowa State, and WVU are going to go for that as far away as they are from a national championship? What's more, it's likely that a conference WITH a championship game will be left out as well this year if the SEC puts two into the top four, so it's not as if a championship game is the difference--there may be more one-loss teams out of the playoff than in it. The championship game simply may not be all that Bronco, Holmoe, and BYU are making it out to be. They need it to be bigger than it is, because that is the most realistic, though long-shot, path to P5 membership for BYU.