Big 12 talk during the game

[BYUBALLIN]

Have to disagree on this one money is the key and that is delivered with a national title. Every talking head from cal to New York been saying this all season, if big 12 loses out on a playoff spot they May not have a choice but to expand.. Who would be the second team? The playoff committee is key here if they put a lot into a conf title game the big 12 has not choice. If tcu or Baylor gets in without a title game then it's big trouble for BYU.

[snoscythe]

The money from the National Championship is WAY overrated.

Making it to the Playoff only increases the CONFERENCE payout by $8Million. If you advance to the National Championship, there is another $2 million. There is no bonus for winning the Championship game. So, best case scenario, the Big 12 gets $10 million gross from the playoff. From that $10 million you deduct every single one of TCU's expenses for the bowls. BYU's said in the past that Las Vegas Bowl payouts of $1 million were about break-even for BYU to travel to Vegas. To be conservative, let's say the Big12 nets $9 million after TCU's expenses--That's $900,000 per team.

If the Big 12 expands, they have to share their $200 million a year in conference broadcast revenue with the expansion team. If they give more than 0.5% away to expansion teams, they are losing money even if they win the National Championship every year. If BYU and the other expansion team both take a discount and only takes $5 million a year in TV money for the first few years (while the other teams take $19 million each) each of those schools breaks even in expansion, and I doubt BYU or any other expansion team settles for a 75% discount--it's been about a 33% discount (taking ~11.75 million a year), which would leave the other programs hurting to the tune of a ~$1.5 million less that what they make without the National Championship now. ($20 million a year now to ~$17.8 million post-expansion + BCS money)

The National Championship is peanuts compared to TV money.

[Gunk]

Primary motivation for realignment is money. TV contracts bring in the most money, especially if you're a bottom dweller P5 program.

It's likely we won't see a renegotiation of TV contracts anytime soon, unless a conference feels like they could get a better contract and if their current contracts even allow for some type of renegotiation. We don't know what clauses these conferences have in place or what clauses ESPN, FOX, etc. have in place. Adding a new team could very well be a clause for renegotiation as the product on the field will change.

IMO, the National Championship is still very much a motivation for conference realignment. Why? Greed.

First, the conference that produces playoff and national champions stands to make millions more in payouts, sponsors, merchandise, donors, etc. And, we all know the P5 conferences are never satisfied with how many millions they get. They all want more. They all want the most.

Second, why we likely won't see any changes within the next year or so, I imagine there will be some fidgeting if the Big 12 or Big 10 go a few years without getting a team in the playoffs, especially if the SEC gets two. Why? Because they'll be slipping into irrelevancy and irrelevancy means less revenue - sponsors, merchandise, ticket sales, and no championship cash. And, don't forget angry boosters.

Along the lines of relevancy, ESPN, FOX, ABC, etc want BIG games. If the Big 12 and Big 10 aren't producing as good a product as the SEC, ACC, or Pac12 you can bet there will be some pressure from the TV folks on the conferences to improve the product. Networks also are never content. Profit always has to be up and to the right.

I imagine there is some flexibility in the the TV contracts. There's too much money at stake.

In that case, why wouldn't a TV network be in favor of the Big 12 or Big 10 adding BYU and gaining Utah as a new media market just like the Pac12 did? And, as an added bonus BYU not only gets you the state of Utah but a pretty healthy national fan base too (Utes and CU don't have a national following).

[Fido]

I agree that money is a driver--but wouldn't say it is the ONLY driver. BYU and Bronco aren't the ones driving the conference championship game talk--that is coming from the other conferences who DID expand in part to have a championship game. The P5 conferences are competitive. If they feel someone is gaining an advantage over the others by not having a conference championship game, they will take steps to fix it. If a conference feels disadvantaged by not having a conference championship game, they will take steps to remedy it. Conferences who are happy with the status quo end up like the Mountain West Conference.

[BYUBALLIN]

The money from the National Championship is WAY overrated.

Making it to the Playoff only increases the CONFERENCE payout by $2Million. If you advance to the National Championship, there is another $2 million. There is no bonus for winning the Championship game. So, best case scenario, the Big 12 gets $4 million gross from the playoff. From that $4 million you deduct every single one of TCU's expenses for the bowls. BYU's said in the past that Las Vegas Bowl payouts of $1 million were about break-even for BYU to travel to Vegas. To be conservative, let's say the Big12 nets $3 million after TCU's expenses--That's $300,000 per team.

If the Big 12 expands, they have to share their $200 million a year in conference broadcast revenue with the expansion team. If they give more than 1.5% away to expansion teams, they are losing money even if they win the National Championship every year. If BYU and the other expansion team both take a discount and only takes $5 million a year in TV money for the first few years (while the other teams take $19 million each) each of those schools is $700,000 a year poorer for expansion, and I doubt BYU or any other expansion team settles for a 75% discount--it's been about a 33% discount (taking ~11.75 million a year), which would leave the other programs hurting to the tune of a $2.32 million less that what they make without the National Championship now. ($20 million a year now to $17.68 million post-expansion + BCS money)

The National Championship is peanuts compared to TV money.

The national champion for the bcs got a 23.9 mil payout that's from Forbes mag. Yes it is split with the conference still a nice chunk of change. You also take into account the other bowls and payouts for the conference. National champ also get a nice health boost in venue sales as well, can you imagine all the merchandise FSU sold last year. These university's use football to sell their school winning a title up admissions sent to the school, the hidden dollars here is insane. Really good movie on netflix that outlines all of this I'll have to try and find the title and send it to ya. Being the elite conf is what every school wants and the big 12 gonna have expand and get a conf title game..expansion gonna happen sooner or later. I just hope sooner for our sake.

[snoscythe]

The money from the National Championship is WAY overrated.

Making it to the Playoff only increases the CONFERENCE payout by $8Million. If you advance to the National Championship, there is another $2 million. There is no bonus for winning the Championship game. So, best case scenario, the Big 12 gets $10 million gross from the playoff. From that $10 million you deduct every single one of TCU's expenses for the bowls. BYU's said in the past that Las Vegas Bowl payouts of $1 million were about break-even for BYU to travel to Vegas. To be conservative, let's say the Big12 nets $9 million after TCU's expenses--That's $900,000 per team.

If the Big 12 expands, they have to share their $200 million a year in conference broadcast revenue with the expansion team. If they give more than 0.5% away to expansion teams, they are losing money even if they win the National Championship every year. If BYU and the other expansion team both take a discount and only takes $5 million a year in TV money for the first few years (while the other teams take $19 million each) each of those schools breaks even in expansion, and I doubt BYU or any other expansion team settles for a 75% discount--it's been about a 33% discount (taking ~11.75 million a year), which would leave the other programs hurting to the tune of a ~$1.5 million less that what they make without the National Championship now. ($20 million a year now to ~$17.8 million post-expansion + BCS money)

The National Championship is peanuts compared to TV money.

The national champion for the bcs got a 23.9 mil payout that's from Forbes mag. Yes it is split with the conference still a nice chunk of change. You also take into account the other bowls and payouts for the conference. National champ also get a nice health boost in venue sales as well, can you imagine all the merchandise FSU sold last year. These university's use football to sell their school winning a title up admissions sent to the school, the hidden dollars here is insane. Really good movie on netflix that outlines all of this I'll have to try and find the title and send it to ya. Being the elite conf is what every school wants and the big 12 gonna have expand and get a conf title game..expansion gonna happen sooner or later. I just hope sooner for our sake.

First off, I made some errors, which I have corrected in bold above. Second, people see the payout and assume it goes to the teams playing. In the BCS era, that's not true. Yes, the national championship game "pays out" $22.9 million. BUT--that is just a total of the checks they write. It's not what the teams/conferences who play in it get. BYU is so used to podunk bowls that our fans don't get how the BCS payouts work for BCS teams. The BCS bowls essentially pay into a pool along with the TV money, and that pool of money is divvyed up:

- $50 million to each P5 conference, regardless of whether they are in the playoff.
- $75 million split by non-P5 conferences.
- $300,000 to each conference for every bowl-eligible team
- $6 million for each team going to the playoff
- $4 million for teams in non-playoff BCS bowls
- $2 million to cover expenses for each semi-final and final game
- $2.3 million to Notre Dame
- BYU, Army, and Navy split $922,658.
- Plus conferences get whatever payouts they have individually contracted for with the bowls.

The "payout" of ~$23 million includes what they put in the pot. The added payment or bonus to the participants is $6 million for putting a team into the playoff, and $2 million to cover expenses in each semi-final and final game--making the max additional payout $10 million. You don't have to take my word for it:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc ... /12734897/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The National Championship puts ~$23 million in the pot, but a conference only benefits to the tune of $8 million (for a semifinal loss), or $10 million (for a semifinal win) for putting a team in the playoff.

[jvquarterback]

First, the conference that produces playoff and national champions stands to make millions more in payouts, sponsors, merchandise, donors, etc. And, we all know the P5 conferences are never satisfied with how many millions they get. They all want more. They all want the most.

Second, why we likely won't see any changes within the next year or so, I imagine there will be some fidgeting if the Big 12 or Big 10 go a few years without getting a team in the playoffs, especially if the SEC gets two. Why? Because they'll be slipping into irrelevancy and irrelevancy means less revenue - sponsors, merchandise, ticket sales, and no championship cash. And, don't forget angry boosters.

Along the lines of relevancy, ESPN, FOX, ABC, etc want BIG games. If the Big 12 and Big 10 aren't producing as good a product as the SEC, ACC, or Pac12 you can bet there will be some pressure from the TV folks on the conferences to improve the product. Networks also are never content. Profit always has to be up and to the right.

This is the key. If TCU or Baylor doesn't get in at 11-1 then none of the games they played all year matter. If no Big 12 gets in the next couple years then why should ESPN or FOX pay so much for their games? And why should Nike or Adidas offer more sponsorships?

If they don't get in BYU has a shot because the Big 12 will want to stop their potential losses.

[scott715]

Too bad the big 12 needs two teams. It makes the lost dollars hard to recoup. Adding a conference championship game would bring in more revenue. Just not enough to cover the two team shares.

[YNot]

BYU by itself obviously would not bring $21+ million to the Big 12. BYU would bring substantial value, just not $21 million per year.

The irony is neither West Virginia, nor Iowa St., nor Kansas, nor many current Big 12 members would bring $21 million per year by themselves if added now. The Big 12 benefited by great timing with Fox getting into the college football scene and needing content. In other words, the Big 12 has a really good deal and it knows it.

The addition of BYU and another decent team (Cincinnati?) would help the Big 12's weekly football and basketball inventory, and probably increase the TV deal by about $20-25 million for the season. This means the current Big 12 members would make $2 million LESS than the status quo if the pie were divided equally. It's just not YET worthwhile to the Big 12.

Adding a conference championship game, however, in and of itself adds $$$ to the conference. Conference members reaching the NY6 and the CFP also adds $$$....in addition to the exposure, branding, and recruiting benefits. So, there is still a chance for Big 12 expansion.

In all honesty, if I'm the Big 12, I would wait for the ACC, which means 11 or 12 years. If expansion becomes inevitable, I'm looking first at the American. The Big 12 already has problems with WVU being on an island. They don't need another BYU island problem. I think they look to add schools in WVU's region. Which means:

Cincinnati (11.5 million in OH, close to WVU)
Navy (5.9 million in MD, plus nationwide following and CLOSEST to WVU)
Memphis (6.4 million in TN, closest to other Big 12 schools)
ECU (9.8 million in NC)

UCF and USF are also on the table because of the 19 million population in Florida.

But the recent tweets by Big 12 commissioner Bowlsby illustrates that the Big 12's TV partners don't feel that any of these candidates would actually deliver the markets sufficiently to make it worth while....yet.

[snoscythe]

The Baylor boards have been talking recently about the Big 12 sniping from the ACC and taking Miami and Florida St as expansion targets instead of BYU +1 as that delivers more TV markets, more national prominence, better recruiting beds/inroads, and it would be a $$ upgrade for those two schools, plus they get to keep their rivalry.