NFL Draft and Career Reality

[snoscythe]

Think about this: about 250 players are selected in the NFL draft once you factor in compensatory picks.

There are only 1,696 roster spots in the NFL, and of those, only 1,472 can actually dress or participate in a game any given week given the 46 players dressed rule.

So, for every drafted player to make a game-day roster, that means there has to be 17% turnover from the previous season's NFL-wide roster. 250 guys elsewhere in the league are getting told to find different work. Granted, every player doesn't make a roster, but there are also undrafted free agents hunting for work as well.

It's still sobering to realize how truly difficult it is to make a roster in the League and to stay on it.

[snoscythe]

This also reinforces my belief that Austin Collie's days in the NFL are done. He's a 30 year old slot receiver with a penchant for turning up injured, and the NCAA is just cluttered with WR talent in our pass-happy age of football.

As a GM, which would you prefer:

(a) Austin Collie for $685,000, $810,000, $810,000, and $810,000 over four years (each of those being the veteran minimum for Collie's 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th years in the league, respectively) for a total of $3,115,000 over those four years,

or

(b) Jordan Leslie in the 6th round (which is higher than he will likely go in actuality) for $445,000, $535,000, $625,000, and $715,000 over four years and a $150,000 signing bonus for a total of $2,470,000 over the same four years?

Note that you could get Leslie cheaper if he slide into Round 7, which still has a wage scale, or even better (from a GM's standpoint) out of the draft where a four-year minimum contract could go as low as $1,950,000. Collie, by contrast cannot sign for anything less than the minimum set forth above. Tough league to stay in, as your value has to keep up with an increasing minimum age as you get more time in the league. Collie in his sixth year has to provide enough value to justify paying almost $300,000 a year more than you can do by grabbing a kid out of college. Tough sell.

[frdbtr]

This also reinforces my belief that Austin Collie's days in the NFL are done. He's a 30 year old slot receiver with a penchant for turning up injured, and the NCAA is just cluttered with WR talent in our pass-happy age of football.

As a GM, which would you prefer:

(a) Austin Collie for $685,000, $810,000, $810,000, and $810,000 over four years (each of those being the veteran minimum for Collie's 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th years in the league, respectively) for a total of $3,115,000 over those four years,

or

(b) Jordan Leslie in the 6th round (which is higher than he will likely go in actuality) for $445,000, $535,000, $625,000, and $715,000 over four years and a $150,000 signing bonus for a total of $2,470,000 over the same four years?

Note that you could get Leslie cheaper if he slide into Round 7, which still has a wage scale, or even better (from a GM's standpoint) out of the draft where a four-year minimum contract could go as low as $1,950,000. Collie, by contrast cannot sign for anything less than the minimum set forth above. Tough league to stay in, as your value has to keep up with an increasing minimum age as you get more time in the league. Collie in his sixth year has to provide enough value to justify paying almost $300,000 a year more than you can do by grabbing a kid out of college. Tough sell.

You just gave the NFL equivalent of why a minimum wage hike is a disaster for the work force. Same rules apply in every day work life. If you aren't worth the minimum, you are out of a job.