BYU will join the AAC within 2 years

[scott715]

http://stholeary.blogspot.com/2014/05/b ... years.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Gives 9 reasons why.

[Fido]

Its kind of weird but that was posted nearly a year ago--so according to it BYU joins either this summer or next off season (highly unlikely). And I'm not sure I buy some of the arguments. Like the schedule concerns that say a November playing MTSU, UNLV, Savannah State, and Cal is not going to cut it. Fast forward a year and without the AAC, November has San Jose St., Missouri, Fresno State, and Utah State. I'd call that vastly improved.

Hans Olsen mentioned that someone he knows at BYU told him scheduling is no longer their biggest problem--it is the funding gap with the P5 conferences. That seems to be backed up by Holmoe's comments the other day.

[YNot]

The best way BYU can make up some of the funding gap is by getting SEC, ACC, and PAC 12 teams into Provo and neutral-site games controlled by ESPN. Imagine what BYU's TV slate could look like in 2019-2023.

Wisconsin, USC, Washington, Boise St., Michigan St., Missouri, Arizona (in LV), ASU, Boise St., Stanford, Virginia. Add a couple other SEC/ACC games and that will net BYU some good $$$ in the contract renewal.

Seriously, if ESPN was willing to pay $800K to $1.2 million for MWC-level home schedules, a renewal term should be at least double. That's still short of Power 5 TV money, but it cuts the gap substantially.

[scott715]

And give up the KBYUtv game unless ESPN does not want the game. KBYUtv has now been established. It does not need a home tv game.

[hawkwing]

And give up the KBYUtv game unless ESPN does not want the game. KBYUtv has now been established. It does not need a home tv game.

I think you mean BYUtv, which is different from KBYU.

[CrimsonCoug]

Its kind of weird but that was posted nearly a year ago

And so was posted before anyone could see how the playoff selection committee would actually shake out. Baylor being edged in favor of Ohio State because of a weak SOS has been Independent BYU's windfall. Even more so when the selection committee was proven right when OSU won the whole thing. Scheduling for BYU has eased quite a bit (still not easy, but it has eased). The Notre Dame deal helped, too--even if ND doesn't come back and has to buy out the rest of the contract. Just showing that BYU could schedule that kind of long series with that program, and put up a respectable fight (helped ND get to the NC game)

That AAC door will always be open, but I don't think they need to take it.

[Fido]

There are rumors (only rumors as far as I can tell) that say Notre Dame might be joining the ACC as a full member in 2016 instead of the scheduling agreement they have now--which might spark another wave of realignment (major or minor....who knows).

My thoughts were:
1) This would explain the possibility of not finishing any of the Notre Dame series as their game slot availability would basically dry up with a full conference slate.
2) Would jive with Holmoe's recent comments that he anticipates more realignment and the intention of joining a P5 team in the subsequent moves.

Again--only speculation.

[YNot]

Just read through the rumor stream:

http://northcarolinastate.scout.com/for ... 178&page=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I can actually see legitimate business reasons for a full Notre Dame jump to the ACC.

NOTRE DAME'S Perspective:
- Funding gap. It's not as big as what BYU is dealing with, but the current NBC TV deal is in the $15-20 million range per year - close to ACC numbers, if not a little under. That could be a good $10 million (or more) notch below what the SEC and Big Ten will command. Notre Dame plus a full ACC schedule and the right to contend for the ACC championship could demand closer to $30 million per year, increasing over time.

- CFP Access. Independent Notre Dame will have a hard time reaching the CFP. They would likely need an undefeated season. Whereas, a 12-1 or even 11-2 season that includes the ACC championship and the 13th conference champion game would likely get the Irish into the CFP. Full membership would also give ND better access to the Orange Bowl.

ESPN'S Perspective:
- Keep most Tier 1 ACC games, but pick-up some Notre Dame HOME games. ESPN has never broadcast a game from South Bend. ESPN already has Tier 1 ACC, SEC, Big Ten, PAC 12, and Big 12 games (although the SEC Tier 1 is shared with CBS and PAC 12 and Big 12 Tier 1 is shared with FOX). But they don't have Notre Dame unless they're on the road. ESPN would have even better inventory for ABC, ESPN, and ESPN 2 with some Notre Dame home games added to the mix. And, they have BYU and the AAC to help fill in some of the less-desirable inventory gaps - such as Thursday and Friday nights and late night west coast time slot - so, they don't need ACC Tier 2 and 3 content.

NBC's Perspective:
- Although they would give up some of Notre Dame's home games, they would probably only need to give up 3 or 4 games a year in exchange for Tier II or III rights to ACC football (on an ACC Network) and some ACC basketball. NBC exchanges the ad revenue from 3 or 4 games a year for the cable carriage fees for the entire ACC Network and season-long (football and basketball) ad revenue.

BYU's Perspective:
- Notre Dame all-in to the ACC would likely kill the future ND-BYU series. Not much hope right now, anyway, so BYU ends up with a little $$ from ND's buyout of the series.
- Most realignment scenarios in the wake of this are favorable to BYU. ND would likely come to the ACC with another Big Ten school (Penn St., Purdue, Northwestern) or Vanderbilt (SEC) or West Virginia (Big 12). Most of these moves would ultimately end with the Big 12 losing a team or two.

If the Big Ten is looking to replace someone, and the ACC is resolved to stick together with the new Notre Dame momentum, then Kansas and Missouri are the most susceptible (because they are AAU schools right on the western B1G border), with Texas and Oklahoma as less-likely alternatives.

If the SEC loses someone, they are also likely looking to Big 12 territory for a replacement - with Oklahoma and Kansas schools high on the list.

The Big 12 will likely look to replace any losses - which bodes well for BYU.

And, obviously, if the Big 12 loses West Virginia to the ACC, it would have the ability to go back to the drawing board to consider whether western or eastern expansion makes more sense. WVU to the ACC is probably the best-case-scenario for BYU's P5 hopes.

The other question is, if the ACC goes to 16 teams and the Big Ten and SEC have 14, is the (weakened) Big 12 satisfied to stay at 10? And, will the Big Ten and SEC (and PAC 12) be satisfied with the status quo numbers or look to expand to 16?

[Cougarfan87]

Just read through the rumor stream:

http://northcarolinastate.scout.com/for ... 178&page=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I can actually see legitimate business reasons for a full Notre Dame jump to the ACC.

NOTRE DAME'S Perspective:
- Funding gap. It's not as big as what BYU is dealing with, but the current NBC TV deal is in the $15-20 million range per year - close to ACC numbers, if not a little under. That could be a good $10 million (or more) notch below what the SEC and Big Ten will command. Notre Dame plus a full ACC schedule and the right to contend for the ACC championship could demand closer to $30 million per year, increasing over time.

- CFP Access. Independent Notre Dame will have a hard time reaching the CFP. They would likely need an undefeated season. Whereas, a 12-1 or even 11-2 season that includes the ACC championship and the 13th conference champion game would likely get the Irish into the CFP. Full membership would also give ND better access to the Orange Bowl.

ESPN'S Perspective:
- Keep most Tier 1 ACC games, but pick-up some Notre Dame HOME games. ESPN has never broadcast a game from South Bend. ESPN already has Tier 1 ACC, SEC, Big Ten, PAC 12, and Big 12 games (although the SEC Tier 1 is shared with CBS and PAC 12 and Big 12 Tier 1 is shared with FOX). But they don't have Notre Dame unless they're on the road. ESPN would have even better inventory for ABC, ESPN, and ESPN 2 with some Notre Dame home games added to the mix. And, they have BYU and the AAC to help fill in some of the less-desirable inventory gaps - such as Thursday and Friday nights and late night west coast time slot - so, they don't need ACC Tier 2 and 3 content.

NBC's Perspective:
- Although they would give up some of Notre Dame's home games, they would probably only need to give up 3 or 4 games a year in exchange for Tier II or III rights to ACC football (on an ACC Network) and some ACC basketball. NBC exchanges the ad revenue from 3 or 4 games a year for the cable carriage fees for the entire ACC Network and season-long (football and basketball) ad revenue.

BYU's Perspective:
- Notre Dame all-in to the ACC would likely kill the future ND-BYU series. Not much hope right now, anyway, so BYU ends up with a little $$ from ND's buyout of the series.
- Most realignment scenarios in the wake of this are favorable to BYU. ND would likely come to the ACC with another Big Ten school (Penn St., Purdue, Northwestern) or Vanderbilt (SEC) or West Virginia (Big 12). Most of these moves would ultimately end with the Big 12 losing a team or two.

If the Big Ten is looking to replace someone, and the ACC is resolved to stick together with the new Notre Dame momentum, then Kansas and Missouri are the most susceptible (because they are AAU schools right on the western B1G border), with Texas and Oklahoma as less-likely alternatives.

If the SEC loses someone, they are also likely looking to Big 12 territory for a replacement - with Oklahoma and Kansas schools high on the list.

The Big 12 will likely look to replace any losses - which bodes well for BYU.

And, obviously, if the Big 12 loses West Virginia to the ACC, it would have the ability to go back to the drawing board to consider whether western or eastern expansion makes more sense. WVU to the ACC is probably the best-case-scenario for BYU's P5 hopes.

The other question is, if the ACC goes to 16 teams and the Big Ten and SEC have 14, is the (weakened) Big 12 satisfied to stay at 10? And, will the Big Ten and SEC (and PAC 12) be satisfied with the status quo numbers or look to expand to 16?

I am thinking four 16 team leagues is the end game for the four playoff spots. North will be the BIG 10+, West will be the PAC 12+, South will be the SEC+ and East will be, apparently, the ACC. I think the Big XII gets cannabalized into the other conferences like the Big East. Now, expansion to 8 playoff teams may cool that somewhat. Otherwise, I think it is divide and conquer the Big 12.

[YNot]

I'm not convinced that Texas or Oklahoma are okay to be a western (ACC/SEC) or eastern (PAC 12) arm for another conference. So, I don't think the Big 12 will disband so easily.

Plus, the SEC and the Sugar Bowl chose the Big 12 (with only 10-members) as their partner for the Champions Bowl, not the ACC.

Also, if the CFP had 6 or 8 participants, the Big 12 would have had two CFP teams in 2014 - and possibly two in the FInal Four. Even with only four, the Big 12 was as close to getting two teams into the four-team playoff as they were to none. If the Big 12 wouldn't have crowned co-champs, there's a chance Baylor gets in over Ohio St. If FSU hadn't had a lucky season (or been the defending national champs), there's a chance TCU or Baylor gets in.

Anyway, IMO, we will see the CFP increase to 6 or 8 teams before the Power 5 become the Power 4.