Bowl Matchups

[YNot]

I forgot there is a chance BYU could get Navy at 10-2 or 11-2. I think BYU would jump all over that.

Unfortunately, Navy actually has its own contract with the Military Bowl (in its home stadium) against the ACC this year. BYU has no chance to play Navy in a bowl unless some post-season wheeling and dealing is done.

[blue42]

If the LV bowl can get BYU-Utah it's a no-brainer. I see some potential problems though.

The AAC could have three teams at anywhere from 13-0 to 11-1. Is a Hawaii bowl matchup between BYU (at 10-2 or 9-3) and one of Temple/Houston/Memphis (at 12-1 or 11-1) better than BYU Oregon/Cal/ASU (at 7-5 or 6-6)?

Also the best team from the MW will likely be 11-2 or 10-3. Will the LV bowl have as good a choice of MW teams in 2017. There's a good chance the MW champ will be in a NY6 and the second MW choice will be 8-5 or 9-4 going into the bowl game. Of course BYU is likely to be 7-5 or 8-4 in 2017.

There is no way the MW champ will go to a NY 6 bowl unless the AAC completely implodes. If Houston, Memphis or Temple remain undefeated or even one loss, they will still be the highest ranked G5 school making them the pick. Personally I am rooting for either Houston or Temple. I would never want Memphis to make it because they are a bunch of douches!

[YNot]

The Pac-12 still has a defined selection order:

1. Playoff
2. Rose
3. Alamo
4. Holiday
5. Foster Farms (Fight Hunger in San Fran)
6. Sun
7. Vegas
8. Cactus

If ND beats Stanford pretty good chance the bowls end up like this:

Playoff- Nobody
Rose- Stanford
Alamo- Utes
Holiday- Winner of USC/UCLA game
Foster Farms- Loser of the USC/UCLA game
Sun- Oregon
Vegas- Cal
Cactus- Arizona St.

If Stanford makes the playoff, move everybody up one. The Cactus bowl would get Washington St.

I believe it is a true SELECTION order - not necessarily based on conference standings. And, I believe ESPN owns all the bowls.

So, if ESPN wants Utah-BYU in Las Vegas, they could make it happen. (especially when the Ewetes' ranking plummets further after they lose to UCLA and Arizona). It wouldn't surprise to see USC, UCLA or even Washington St. in the Alamo bowl and Cal in the Foster Farms bowl, making room for the Utes in Las Vegas against BYU.

[YNot]

There is no way the MW champ will go to a NY 6 bowl unless the AAC completely implodes. If Houston, Memphis or Temple remain undefeated or even one loss, they will still be the highest ranked G5 school making them the pick. Personally I am rooting for either Houston or Temple. I would never want Memphis to make it because they are a bunch of douches!

And, if the AAC falters, don't count out Toledo or even Bowling Green (also from the MAC) - or Western Kentucky or Marshall from CUSA getting into the NY6 ahead of the MWC champ.

[mormonrasta]

The Pac-12 still has a defined selection order:

1. Playoff
2. Rose
3. Alamo
4. Holiday
5. Foster Farms (Fight Hunger in San Fran)
6. Sun
7. Vegas
8. Cactus

If ND beats Stanford pretty good chance the bowls end up like this:

Playoff- Nobody
Rose- Stanford
Alamo- Utes
Holiday- Winner of USC/UCLA game
Foster Farms- Loser of the USC/UCLA game
Sun- Oregon
Vegas- Cal
Cactus- Arizona St.

If Stanford makes the playoff, move everybody up one. The Cactus bowl would get Washington St.

I believe it is a true SELECTION order - not necessarily based on conference standings. And, I believe ESPN owns all the bowls.

So, if ESPN wants Utah-BYU in Las Vegas, they could make it happen. (especially when the Ewetes' ranking plummets further after they lose to UCLA and Arizona). It wouldn't surprise to see USC, UCLA or even Washington St. in the Alamo bowl and Cal in the Foster Farms bowl, making room for the Utes in Las Vegas against BYU.

Yes, it is a selection order, but a large part of that order is driven by the standings. There is no way a 3 loss Utah team goes to Vegas this year. Bowls and teams do not like to go to the same game two years in a row. Also, Vegas gets the 6th or 7th pick depending on the playoff. There is no way 5 or 6 teams get picked ahead of Utah this year.

Vegas is the only bowl that ESPN owns that is affiliated with the Pac-12. They won't have much influence in the Pac 12 bowl selection.

[jvquarterback]

If the LV bowl can get BYU-Utah it's a no-brainer. I see some potential problems though.

The AAC could have three teams at anywhere from 13-0 to 11-1. Is a Hawaii bowl matchup between BYU (at 10-2 or 9-3) and one of Temple/Houston/Memphis (at 12-1 or 11-1) better than BYU Oregon/Cal/ASU (at 7-5 or 6-6)?

Also the best team from the MW will likely be 11-2 or 10-3. Will the LV bowl have as good a choice of MW teams in 2017. There's a good chance the MW champ will be in a NY6 and the second MW choice will be 8-5 or 9-4 going into the bowl game. Of course BYU is likely to be 7-5 or 8-4 in 2017.

There is no way the MW champ will go to a NY 6 bowl unless the AAC completely implodes. If Houston, Memphis or Temple remain undefeated or even one loss, they will still be the highest ranked G5 school making them the pick. Personally I am rooting for either Houston or Temple. I would never want Memphis to make it because they are a bunch of douches!

I was referencing the choice in 2017. If the LV bowl takes the MW conf champ this year they get BYU in 2017. In 2017 the MW champ could be in the NY6 so if they pick BYU now they'd be stuck with a MW runner up. It's a tough call but I think the ESPN goes for a 10-2 vs 11-1 AAC opponent in the Hawaii bowl unless Utah is available for LV which happens if they lose 2-3 more before the conference championship game.

[BYULV]

If the LV bowl can get BYU-Utah it's a no-brainer. I see some potential problems though.

The AAC could have three teams at anywhere from 13-0 to 11-1. Is a Hawaii bowl matchup between BYU (at 10-2 or 9-3) and one of Temple/Houston/Memphis (at 12-1 or 11-1) better than BYU Oregon/Cal/ASU (at 7-5 or 6-6)?

Also the best team from the MW will likely be 11-2 or 10-3. Will the LV bowl have as good a choice of MW teams in 2017. There's a good chance the MW champ will be in a NY6 and the second MW choice will be 8-5 or 9-4 going into the bowl game. Of course BYU is likely to be 7-5 or 8-4 in 2017.

There is no way the MW champ will go to a NY 6 bowl unless the AAC completely implodes. If Houston, Memphis or Temple remain undefeated or even one loss, they will still be the highest ranked G5 school making them the pick. Personally I am rooting for either Houston or Temple. I would never want Memphis to make it because they are a bunch of douches!

I was referencing the choice in 2017. If the LV bowl takes the MW conf champ this year they get BYU in 2017. In 2017 the MW champ could be in the NY6 so if they pick BYU now they'd be stuck with a MW runner up. It's a tough call but I think the ESPN goes for a 10-2 vs 11-1 AAC opponent in the Hawaii bowl unless Utah is available for LV which happens if they lose 2-3 more before the conference championship game.

Now it gets interesting as Utah sits tied three ways for 4th place with USC and UCLA. Even if they beat Colorado, the best they will be is 5th Place due to their loss to both LA teams. USC or UCLA are guaranteed to Lise as they play each other so Utah will be 5th with a win, tied for 6th with a loss, but again UCLA and USC beat Utah putting the Utes at 7th. They could very easily end up in the LV Bowl. The bowl and ESPN would kill for a rivalry matchup like that in a bowl game.

[redneckjedi]

Likely Pac-12 final standings, assuming the team with the better record wins:

1. Stanford 8-1 (OOC vs ND 10-1)

2. Washington State 7-2 (W @ Washington 3-6, owns tiebreaker over Oregon)
3. Oregon 7-2 (W vs Oregon State 0-9, owns tiebreaker over USC, but didn't play UCLA)

4. USC/UCLA 6-3 (W vs USC/UCLA 5-4 owns tiebreaker over Utah)
5. Utah 6-3 (W vs. Colorado 1-8, owns tiebreaker over ASU, Oregon)
6. UCLA/USC 5-4 (L vs UCLA/USC 6-3, owns tiebreaker over Utah)

7. Arizona State 5-4 (W @ California 3-6)
8. California 3-6 (L vs Arizona State 4-5)

9. Washington 3-6 (L vs Washington State 7-2)
10. Arizona 3-6 (BYE)
11. Colorado 1-8 (L @ Utah 6-3)
12. Oregon State 0-9 (L @ Oregon 7-2)

If Utah loses, and everything else stays the same, they will drop below the loser of USC/UCLA but stay above ASU at 5-4, which places them 6th. If Utah wins and Oregon loses, it gets extraordinarily messy, because if you try to apply the divisional tie-breakers across divisions, you wind up with weird scenarios where Utah wins tiebreakers over USC but USC is going to the title game, etc.

So, with the selection order like this:
1. Playoff
2. Rose
3. Alamo
4. Holiday
5. Foster Farms (Fight Hunger in San Fran)
6. Sun
7. Vegas
8. Cactus

I would guess it goes something like this (again, assuming favorites win):
1. Playoff: nobody (too much chaos required to get Stanford in, won't happen)
2. Rose: Stanford
3. Alamo: WSU/Oregon
4. Holiday: Oregon/WSU
5. Foster Farms: USC/UCLA winner
6. Sun: Utah
7. Vegas: USC/UCLA loser
8. Cactus: ASU

Of course, all we would need is for the Sun bowl to want USC/UCLA more than Utah, and Utah is in Vegas, even with a W against CO. When my choice is Utah vs. national brands like USC and UCLA, I'd take USC/UCLA, because I need ticket sales, butts in seats, and ratings.

I would suspect Hawaii and Vegas would want us, and we'd take Vegas, which pays out $1.35 M compared to $650 K. Vegas is probably praying to every idol god they can find for that matchup, because they would sell out and have fantastic ratings - one of the fiercest rivalries in the country in a bowl game? It's ratings gold in what would normally be the part of bowl season that nobody cares about or watches.

To me, BYU vs. Utah in Vegas is becoming more and more likely.

[cougman]

Does anyone know how Las Vegas and Hawaii decide? Do they Rochambeau to see who gets to pick? My guess is both bowls would want BYU because of the fan draw, but how do they determine it?

[Mars]

I agree that Utah seems like a good bet for the Sun Bowl right now. The Las Vegas Bowl won't want a BYU-UCLA rematch though. BYU-USC, yes. Or Air Force-UCLA maybe.