2016 Projected Wins

[frdbtr]

Y'all have looked at the schedule, right? There is a chance we go into the Toledo game 0-4, with next win not being until November.

I don't see that as likely, but each of the first 4 games are 50/50 at best. I believe the offense will be fine, because Taysom and Tanner are great and I firmly believe Ty will be an amazing college coordinator. I worry about the defense a lot.

I believe this is the most talented team BYU has ever had, but this schedule is crazy tough. When you go into a season with a bunch of 50/50 games, you tend to come out with between 5 and 7 wins.

I agree. I'm worried about the offense and the defense. Ty Detmer is probably going to end up being really good but he will not be this season, at least for the first few games. The defense is being led by someone with no experience calling defenses. I have a feeling we are going to be very bad on defense this year, maybe worse than the 01 and 02 defenses. The combination of rookie coaches at every position with our schedule and IMO, I will be happy if they make a bowl game because not making one is very likely.

[snoscythe]

Y'all have looked at the schedule, right? There is a chance we go into the Toledo game 0-4, with next win not being until November.

And Toledo is no cakewalk either--they were 10-2 last season with wins over Arkansas at War Memorial Stadium and then #24 Temple in their bowl game.

[mormonrasta]

Since 1972, BYU has won only 29% (21-52-1) of games against 7 win or better teams from the SWC, ACC, SEC, Big 8, Big 10, Big 12, Pac and major independents like Notre Dame and Miami.

Utah has won at least 7 games in the last 3 years.

Arizona has had 7 wins or better in each of the last 4 years. Only one of those years they only had 7 wins.

UCLA has had 8 wins or better in each of the last 4 years.

With the exception of 2012 where they won 7 games, Michigan St. has had double digit wins every year since 2010.

Mississippi St. has had 7 wins or more in each of the last 6 years

The only year that West Virginia had fewer than 7 wins since 2002 was 2013.

I think we win 2 out of the 6, P5 games we play. I think we lose one more game (probably Boise St.). 7-5 regular season, win the bowl game, 8-5 overall.

[byufan4ever]

I think it's time to start up our yearly "what % does BYU have of beating every foe?" and then somebody (me) can sum and tally all of the responses...

[BOID]

I think the only game that will be a probable loss going in, is Michigan St on the road. The other games are all winnable, but chances are that things will not go our way with all of them. If two of those are lost, then, a 9-3 record would result. That's my prediction. It could be way off, but I just don't see WVU, BSU, and Arizona as being that tough as road games, and we'll be getting UCLA and Mississippi St in Provo. The 'tards are always a question mark, but they're due to drop one, and I don't think BYU's new staff will treat that as "just another game." That old malaise is now just history, thanks to coaching changes.

Finally, I am not so pessimistic about BYU's chances while breaking in new coaches. I'm thinking more in line with how 2001 went with new staff starting up with very talented, experienced players. Sure, the turnover ratio is larger now than in 2001, but I still think we'll see good results out of the chute with Detmer, Lamb, Empy, and Cahoon. None of those guys are unproven. Tuiaki is untested at his position, but he has help, from more proven defensive mentors in Kaufusi, Sitake, and Lamb.

I just don't see that much reason for pessimism here.

[frdbtr]

I think the only game that will be a probable loss going in, is Michigan St on the road. The other games are all winnable, but chances are that things will not go our way with all of them. If two of those are lost, then, a 9-3 record would result. That's my prediction. It could be way off, but I just don't see WVU, BSU, and Arizona as being that tough as road games, and we'll be getting UCLA and Mississippi St in Provo. The 'tards are always a question mark, but they're due to drop one, and I don't think BYU's new staff will treat that as "just another game." That old malaise is now just history, thanks to coaching changes.

Finally, I am not so pessimistic about BYU's chances while breaking in new coaches. I'm thinking more in line with how 2001 went with new staff starting up with very talented, experienced players. Sure, the turnover ratio is larger now than in 2001, but I still think we'll see good results out of the chute with Detmer, Lamb, Empy, and Cahoon. None of those guys are unproven. Tuiaki is untested at his position, but he has help, from more proven defensive mentors in Kaufusi, Sitake, and Lamb.

I just don't see that much reason for pessimism here.

They are all winnable when we had a Bronco Mendenhall led defense which we don't. If this defense gives up 30+ points per game then we will not make a bowl game. You all were upset when Nick Howell's defense wasn't up to Bronco's standards. We now have a Dcoordinator with less experience than Howell had.

[BOID]

That is a good point. Bronco's defense was exceptional when he handled it himself. The Howell led defense was awful. I can't imagine Tuiaki's being any worse. But yeah, the defense could cost BYU some games. Question is, will the defense cost us three games, or six?

There is a very impressive defensive back field in the BYU roster right now. Might even be capable of running a press man coverage. If the coaches can keep the schemes simple while disguising the looks, then the athletes can do their thing. Could be better than expected. I'm excited to see Takitaki at DE. The Warner Bros, the two Michaels, and Nacua are going to be pure terror. The backers should be solid as usual. I'm hoping for Tuiloma to be recovered so he can anchor the line.

Anyway, there is great potential there, but possibly a delayed development curve. The D will not be as creative as it was with Bronco. He was an elite when it came to defense.

[frdbtr]

That is a good point. Bronco's defense was exceptional when he handled it himself. The Howell led defense was awful. I can't imagine Tuiaki's being any worse. But yeah, the defense could cost BYU some games. Question is, will the defense cost us three games, or six?

There is a very impressive defensive back field in the BYU roster right now. Might even be capable of running a press man coverage. If the coaches can keep the schemes simple while disguising the looks, then the athletes can do their thing. Could be better than expected. I'm excited to see Takitaki at DE. The Warner Bros, the two Michaels, and Nacua are going to be pure terror. The backers should be solid as usual. I'm hoping for Tuiloma to be recovered so he can anchor the line.

Anyway, there is great potential there, but possibly a delayed development curve. The D will not be as creative as it was with Bronco. He was an elite when it came to defense.

Sitake's defense at OSU was way worse than Howell's defense was. Sitake's defense at OSU was worse than BYU's defense was in 2001 and 2002 which was an absolute nightmare. My only hope for the defense is if Ed Lamb is put in charge of it since he did a fantastic job with SUU's defense. I have absolutely no faith in Sitake or Tuiaki to run a defense that can stop anyone.

[hawkwing]

I expect 8 wins this year. I think that's actually pretty conservative based on the amount of player talent and leadership that will be on the team. I think it will cover/hide a large number of coaching errors and mistakes.

[hawkwing]

Doesn't look like the national pundits have bought into the Kalani effect so far.