Big 12 Expansion at 15%

[BlueK]

The Sunday play issue isn't a problem for most of the schools--a hassle, yeah, but they can get over it. The two schools that have a big problem with it are TCU and Baylor. They don't want to be forced, as a Disciples of Christ and a Baptist school, to accommodate BYU in sabbath day observance, because it begs the question/comparison why they are playing on Sundays.

If BYU wants into the Big XII, it will have to be without the support of TCU, Baylor and WVU (for different geographic reasons). That's quite a disadvantage to start from.

TCU isn't that religious. It has a pretty loose affiliation with the DOC church, but that church in and of itself is quite liberal as far as Christian denominations go and I don't think has much of a history with strict sabbath observance to begin with. The religious dynamics there are a little odd in that the faculty as a whole is more liberal than the student body by quite a bit. In recent years they've had some on-campus controversy over the fact that the faculty has tried to take "christian" out of the name of the school. They didn't succeed in that because the idea was so unpopular with the students and alumni.

[scott715]

CCG starts in 2017. Split into two five team divisions. Expansion is on hold while studying the data.

[scott715]

[scott715]

A lot of different takes on what came out of the Big12 meetings. Here is one from BamaCoug. He has been on the radio with Criddle and did ALOT of data analysis. It is long but it gets you up to speed with what is happening.

http://www.cougarboard.com/board/messag ... d=15962923

[Mars]

http://www.cbssports.com/college-footba ... e-big-ten/

[Florwood]

Would you still place the chance of expansion at 15% after the CCG announcement yesterday. I'd say the chances went up appreciably. 50% now?

[hawkwing]

Would you still place the chance of expansion at 15% after the CCG announcement yesterday. I'd say the chances went up appreciably. 50% now?

Some people see the CCG as a clear indicator that the conference will expand, other's see it as a clear signal that the conference will not expand. Ultimately it's up to Texas, and they don't want to expand, so they need to see that it's in their best interest.

[scott715]

Dang it lost my post. To repeat. This can go several ways. Big12 distributed $30M this year. They could be tring to get a P5 or 2 teams to come join them. If not they could add 4 G5 teams to get major bucks from tv contract. If that happened tv would not have a lot of funds for new Big10 contract. Big10 fights back by poaching Big12 teams. Anything can happen here.

[Commoner]

Would you still place the chance of expansion at 15% after the CCG announcement yesterday. I'd say the chances went up appreciably. 50% now?

The Big 12 has been reluctant to expand. When TCU and WVU were added, they could have invited Louisville and another (BYU?) to bring membership back to 12.

When the NCAA deregulated the CCG, some predicted that this would give the Big 12 the further incentive not to expand because they could now have their "13th data point".

On Thursday, Boren said that it was important to understand that what mattered was not the total $$$ the conference earned but rather how much each team received.

The announced $30M per school, for 2015-16, puts the Big 12 schools just behind the SEC and BIG. That's before Tier 3 rights are included. No Big 12 team earns less than $2M for those rights.
OU, WVU and Kansas get $5M and Texas will receive $13M (the ESPN contract gave them $10.98M the first year, with a 5% annual increase).

Add to that what they get for the CCG and that will likely put them ahead of the other two conferences.

The Big 12, since it stabilized at 10, believes it can poach a couple of ACC schools, once the GOR expires. Now that they are equal footing with the other power conferences, as far as having a CCG is concerned, their revenue stream allows them to wait it out.

They chose a path that increases revenue and evens the odds of making it to a CFP without having to expand.

This week, they were presented will all the data accumulated by their consultants. That data was convincing enough to take immediate action, in two areas: a CCG (yes) and conference TV network (no).

The fact that they did not act on expansion means that the data is probably not as compelling. If it was, they could have voted to expand and then spent the summer deciding on who are the best two or four candidates.

The schools that were reluctant to expand before are probably less inclined to do do now.

At least, that's how I interpret the events of the past several months. I am resigned to a long period of independence.

[Mars]

Ultimately it's up to Texas, and they don't want to expand, so they need to see that it's in their best interest.

Texas wanted no conference network, and OU gave them that. But the hired consultants suggested both expanding and adding a championship game. The Billion dollars we hear about comes from expansion computations (from 10 to 14 teams, I believe).