3rd down conversion rate

[BroncoBot]

Greg wrubell was posting some stats about 3rd down which reminded me...

One of the most frustrating aspects of this years offense is the 3rd down conversion rate. A paltry 40.43 and good enough for 53 in the country. Right there with Wake Forest and Texas. This has been born out in sacks, Taysom running backwards trying to extend plays, dropped passes, LOY runs, etc etc etc. BYU's offenses from 2005 to 2012 based on how BYU ranked in the NCAA in conversions and the percentage of 3rd down they converted.

rank (NCAAF) conversion percentage
16 .................. 45
3 ................. 56
14 ................ 46
4 ................ 55
1 ................ 56
22 ................ 46
6 ................ 51
25 ................ 46

years 2013-2016
rank (NCAAF) conversion percentage
80 ............... 38
37 ............... 43
78 ............... 38
53 ............... 40


Based on the defenses BYU has faced, this makes me feel that the 3rd down % isn't terrible. No MWC teams to bring that average up. It also makes it apparent that 3rd down is basically a coin flip over a season, even the best teams only convert at ~55%.

Thought I would post the data I found, thoughts welcome.

[coachK]

maybe a more telling stat would be the number of times we have a 3rd down situation as compared to getting first downs on first or second down plays. If even the best teams only convert ~55%, I'm betting they face 3rd down less often.

[CrimsonCoug]

More important still would be the number (and percent) of drives that end in TDs, FGs, turnovers, and punts.
Ultimately 3rd down conversion isn't an intrinsically important statistic. How you end a drive is really more important. Or you could see how many series of downs result in a first down or the other categories above.

[frdbtr]

3rd down conversion rate is a direct result of what you did on 1st and 2nd down. Not all 3rd downs are created equal. If you consistently find yourself in 3rd and 3, I would bet that your 3rd down rate is pretty high. If you consistently find yourself in 3rd and 15, you will have a low rate of conversion.

[SpiffCoug]

So far through three games, BYU has run 95 plays on 1st down. Those 95 plays have turned into 49 2nd down & 7 or longer (.516). And those 49 2nd & 7 or longer have turned into 20 3rd & 7 or longer (.408) and we have converted just 5 of those.

[blue42]

So far through three games, BYU has run 95 plays on 1st down. Those 95 plays have turned into 49 2nd down & 7 or longer (.516). And those 49 2nd & 7 or longer have turned into 20 3rd & 7 or longer (.408) and we have converted just 5 of those.

I will take it a step further and say out of the 46 third down plays BYU has this year, 15 have been 10 yards or longer converting only 3 of them or a 20% rate. 1/3 of BYU's 3rd downs have been 10 yards or longer. The average yardage for these 15 plays is 14.3 yards and the average yards gained on these plays is only 5.6 yards. Hard to convert on 3rd or win games with those kind of numbers.

On the flip side on 3rd downs with 3 yards or less, BYU has had 17 of them with the average yardage of 2 yards and have converted on 10 of them for a 59% conversion rate. I thought that number would have been a little higher with the shorter yardage.

As Spiff has pointed out the failures on 1st and 2nd downs have led to the bad 3rd down yardage and performance.

[BroncoBot]

Hey, Wrubell just tweeted that BYU is number 18 in 3rd down conversion rate. That's a big jump over the last few games (over pretty good competition).

[BroncoBot]

Taysom and Ty seem to have this thing pointed in the right direction lately...