just a random thought...

[Cougarbib]

Will we soon see "Rose is not the Guy" as Blue's tag line?

Three ridiculous comments so far in this thread

15 win team
I wanted to win a few WCC games next year
Other half of same quote - We won't be playing any man defense next year.

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[nuk13]

So, with KC at starting pg it is safe to assume that we wont be playing man defense at any time next year... Which is a bummer. I wanted to win some games in the WCC next year.

If you have Bartley, Winder on the floor, they can guard the point no problem and KC can guard the 3.

There is no rule about point guards being required to guard point guards.

And since when could Matt Carlino stay in front of a really good point guard?

You are easy to agree with. I think Bartley and Winder on the floor at the same time will pretty well be able to cover the point guard duties.

[craigoscarson]

So, with KC at starting pg it is safe to assume that we wont be playing man defense at any time next year... Which is a bummer. I wanted to win some games in the WCC next year.

If you have Bartley, Winder on the floor, they can guard the point no problem and KC can guard the 3.

There is no rule about point guards being required to guard point guards.

And since when could Matt Carlino stay in front of a really good point guard?

Sure, there is no rule about that. So walk me through this: if you are starting - for the sake of argument...

pg - KColl
sg - Haws (or Bartley or Winder)
sf - Bartley (or WInder or Haws)
pf - Austin (or Aytes)
c - Nielsen (or Austin)

Precursor to #1 - Is Kcoll even going to be healthy enough for start of the year?
#1 - Who is going to guard the point in man defense?
#2 - Who is going to break the press in late game situations?
#3 - Who is going to pass the ball?
#4 - Who is going to score when Haws is being pressure defended and focused on?
#5 - Who is going to push the ball up the court in the full tempo offense?


Unless we get some MAJOR contributions from unexpected sources (Fischer at the 3pt line, Aytes, and/or Chattman) then this team just became a 15 win team next year with the loss of Mika and Carlino.

You take a shot at Carlino, but he was our best man defender hands down (with the possible exception of Josh Sharp at the small forward position, which he rarely played at). Carlino kept in front of point guards he was guarding the majority of the time in man defense. WInder, however, cannot guard D1 level point guards without fouling at an unsustainable rate. He is too slow laterally to keep in front of point guards. He does the "Ole" defense - which is to let your guy past you, and then swipe at them from behind." Watch the last 2-3 games of the season if you don't believe me. He is the smaller version of Nate Austin, who also can't guard big men one to one, and gets a lot of his fouls trying to block from behind. You don't just replace someone that is 6th all time in steals with a year left to play on defense with a bunch of bench talent. His 7th all time in assists won't be replaced by anyone else either.

Big, big trouble. THere is a hurricane headed this way next season with this announcement. Rose made a big mistake with his lineup, once again this year. I hope the new guys coming in make a big splash, we won't even go to the NIT without contributions from them, and we sure as hell won't be dancing unless they can collectively contribute on a major level. I hope they do. I think Rose is a good coach, but I think he makes mistakes, and this is one of them. I don't think we would be making these mistakes if Rice were here to help him.

Yes if KC isn't ready to play point, we're in trouble.

Guarding the point I think we're fine. I like Winder and Bartleys perimeter D over Carlinos. Carlino was good at anticipating passing lanes, but was awful at 1 on 1 keep your man from driving (UMASS he got eaten alive).

KC is our best defender from last year not Carlino (in fact Carlino doesn't make my top 3)

Losing Mika is not as big a loss as losing Hartsock 2 years ago or Davies last year. Mika the freshman was not as good as Hartsock the senior or Davies the senior, it's not even close, so while we'll miss him, I don't think he's as much of a difference maker as the other two previous losses. That being said, we're losing a guy with a higher ceiling than Hartsock or Davies. But if you consider the actual production we're losing, it's not the end of the world. If you consider what his potential was for next year as far as growth... that'd be an interesting discussion..

Maybe, just maybe Carlino knows that with a year under their belts that Halford and Fischer are competive with Matt as 6th men, scoring wise and that the only thing keeping Carlino ahead of them was ability to play the point...

I liked Matt, but I think there's a chance that we come out of this in decent shape... but only if KC heals and Aytes can handle the 4.. If KC is out and Aytes is a bust... we'll be looking at a NIT run at best.

[Brayden Green]

I liked Matt, but I think there's a chance that we come out of this in decent shape... but only if KC heals and Aytes can handle the 4.. If KC is out and Aytes is a bust... we'll be looking at a NIT run at best.

My thoughts exactly. Losing Mika hurts because you are losing a double double guy that was very agressive on the offensive end of the floor getting rebounds, putbacks, and getting fouled.

I just don't know who is going to take shots next year, much less score the ball. In losing Mika, KColl, and Carlino we are losing the only people besides Haws who regularly shot the ball, or drove it into the lane.

One thing is certain: This will be an entirely different team next year. It will be interesting to see how court ready the new guys are. The success of next year hinges on players that didn't play for us, (or didn't play well) stepping up and being major contributors. I hope for the best.

[Gunk]

For a freshman, Mika was great. Good solid play, but he had plenty of room for improvement, and I agree, from a production value him leaving won't put us in as big of a deficit as last year. My biggest complaint with Mika was taking too long to do something with the ball in the post. He'd catch it, stand there for a few seconds, and then go to work. This gave the defense time to react and bring the double for when he put in the floor, resulting in turnovers. He needs to catch the ball and make a move.

Had we kept our core of MC, KC, and Haws, we'd be in fairly decent shape for next season.

Now, we're down to a questionable KC and Haws. MC's departure hurts more than Mika.

We're looking at a completely different team next season with a lot of question marks.

[SpiffCoug]

Actually, what we need to be asking is, how do we replace MC's 1.7 steals - which is really more like 16 points. So we're really losing out on 29.8 points a game in losing Carlino.

[craigoscarson]

Actually, what we need to be asking is, how do we replace MC's 1.7 steals - which is really more like 16 points. So we're really losing out on 29.8 points a game in losing Carlino.

2 steals a game is worth 16 points? what do we get to shoot 8 pointers when he makes a steal?

Bartley and Winder are both capable of 1.5 steals a game given the same amount of minutes as Carlino.

[Cougarbib]

In 2012, BYU played with 2 solid starters in Davies and Haws plus .5 for inconsistent Carlino. Then lost Davies leaving a 1.5 foundation and hardly any bench going into the offseason.

In 2013, Haws and KC were solid starters plus .5 each for inconsistent MC and foul plagued Mika. So we played with 3.0 starters and a stronger bench.

We were left with everyone but Mika coming back with a 2.5 foundation. Now we lose MC at .5. That is still a 2.0 foundation and a better bench than last season.

KC is key. Lose him and the foundation drops to a 1.

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[Qman]

After thinking about it for a couple of days I our team next year will either be a very good rebounding team or a great rebounding team if KC is up to snuff.

Austin is a very good rebounder and I believe our bench bigs will be good enough to keep KC to the 1-3 positions. Which should give a 3 very good rebounders and Haws all the time.

I was watching some Fischer footage. He is a run off screens and shoot guy. He should help provide spacing.

I am very curious what Chatman will be able to provide.

I wonder what Haws will be able to improvement on. He is a worker so I expect he will.

As for point production I expect the following:
Haws 22 ppg
KC 15 ppg
Austin 6 ppg
Other guards (Fischer/Barkley/Winder/Chatman/Halford) 15 ppg
Other Bigs (Worthington, Aytes, Andrus,Sharp,Neilsen) 12 ppg

In other words we should average around 70 ppg. That is below our normal average so we will need to play better d (read less zone defense).

[Cougarbib]

If KC is healthy, he and Haws will combine to average 40. The other 3 starters, will give 25 more. The bench will give 10 more. 75 ppg.

BYU was an 83 PPG team IIRC. Subtract out MC and Mika entirely, and you still get nearly 60 PPG. They were worth about 25 cimbined. Their replacements should be able to chip in 15. And, if BYU improves free throw shooting - 2 or 3 PPG opportunity right there.

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