Political Polling, Nov 7, 2016

[StatsCougar]

Tomorrow is election day, and as current polling is showing, Trump has .47 % chance of winning tomorrow. (.09% chance of a tie). Hillary will likely be the President in 2017. While Mr. Trump is likely going to fail, the race has tightened quite a bit the last few weeks. Hillary Averages just 287 votes in the Electoral college. (Median of 276).

While my simulation show Trump losing, it also assumes that undecided voters splitting proportionally. There are other states at play if that does not happen. The map shows that most state movement has been in Trump's favor (Utah, Missouri, Georgia and Ohio Solidly Republican . Iowa, Nevada and Arizona lean Republican. Florida and North Carolina as toss-ups. If Trump wins all of those States, He needs just 8 Electoral college votes to be President. If my summary of the polling results are correct Here are the states that he could flip to win:

Alaska - 3 needs to win 99% of undecided votes to flip (Little polling out of Alaska, and the most recent has Trump done by 3. I think that polling is off, but that it is still a tight race.)
Colorado - 9 needs to win 73% of the undecided vote.
Maine - 3 needs to win 83% of the undecided vote.
Maine 2 District - 1 needs to win 56% of the vote.
Michigan -16 needs to win 97% of the undecided vote.
New Hampshire - 4 needs to win 80% of the undecided vote.
Oregon - 7 needs 74% of the undecided vote.
Pennsylvania - 20 needs 75% of the undecided vote.
Virginia - 13 needs 94% of the undecided vote.
Wisconsin - 10 needs 88% of the undecided vote.

These assumes that undecided votes will only choice between Trump and Hillary.

Evan McMullin currently never wins the state of Utah. The only path that I see for him, could be the polling is really off, or more likely Hillary voters would have to switch along with most undecided breaking his way. I doubt that will be the case.

Here Are my predictions for the election:
In Utah, Clinton Finished 3rd (Most recent polls have her in Second).
Clinton Wins the Election, with 307 Electoral votes. Florida and Nevada go her way. North Carolina, Alaska and Maine 2nd district to Trump. All others as the Map indicates.
If the person elected is not impeached or resigns from office in the first 100 days of office, the other party will win the presidency in 4 years. (I think the economy is going to tank again and corruption in the oval office is going to hit headlines for a while with either candidate.)
Republicans will maintain control of the Senate (Barely).

[hawkwing]

Thanks for the update.

Hopefully 4 years of Hillary pass quickly.

[scott715]

So you are saying Trump has a chance? That's more than last week.

[SpiffCoug]

Wow, did those predictions change quickly.

[hawkwing]

I think that the outrageous increases in Obamacare prices over the last few days are what really caused this to happen. Every single person in the country just had their insurance costs go up 25-200% in the last few days. I think this pushed the undecideds and even some who were opposed to Trump to mark their ballots for President Trump.

Very few people can afford the Affordable Care Act.

[Cougarfan87]

Tomorrow is election day, and as current polling is showing, Trump has .47 % chance of winning tomorrow. (.09% chance of a tie). Hillary will likely be the President in 2017. While Mr. Trump is likely going to fail, the race has tightened quite a bit the last few weeks. Hillary Averages just 287 votes in the Electoral college. (Median of 276).

While my simulation show Trump losing, it also assumes that undecided voters splitting proportionally. There are other states at play if that does not happen. The map shows that most state movement has been in Trump's favor (Utah, Missouri, Georgia and Ohio Solidly Republican . Iowa, Nevada and Arizona lean Republican. Florida and North Carolina as toss-ups. If Trump wins all of those States, He needs just 8 Electoral college votes to be President. If my summary of the polling results are correct Here are the states that he could flip to win:

Alaska - 3 needs to win 99% of undecided votes to flip (Little polling out of Alaska, and the most recent has Trump done by 3. I think that polling is off, but that it is still a tight race.)
Colorado - 9 needs to win 73% of the undecided vote.
Maine - 3 needs to win 83% of the undecided vote.
Maine 2 District - 1 needs to win 56% of the vote.
Michigan -16 needs to win 97% of the undecided vote.
New Hampshire - 4 needs to win 80% of the undecided vote.
Oregon - 7 needs 74% of the undecided vote.
Pennsylvania - 20 needs 75% of the undecided vote.
Virginia - 13 needs 94% of the undecided vote.
Wisconsin - 10 needs 88% of the undecided vote.

These assumes that undecided votes will only choice between Trump and Hillary.

Evan McMullin currently never wins the state of Utah. The only path that I see for him, could be the polling is really off, or more likely Hillary voters would have to switch along with most undecided breaking his way. I doubt that will be the case.

Here Are my predictions for the election:
In Utah, Clinton Finished 3rd (Most recent polls have her in Second).
Clinton Wins the Election, with 307 Electoral votes. Florida and Nevada go her way. North Carolina, Alaska and Maine 2nd district to Trump. All others as the Map indicates.
If the person elected is not impeached or resigns from office in the first 100 days of office, the other party will win the presidency in 4 years. (I think the economy is going to tank again and corruption in the oval office is going to hit headlines for a while with either candidate.)
Republicans will maintain control of the Senate (Barely).

To quote the President-Elect, "You're fired!"

Just kidding. Thanks for all your work. Sometimes the polls just don't tell the story.

[StatsCougar]

As my predictions failed miserably, looks like I will be keeping my day job. My only consolation is that all the national pundits prediction were worse than mine. Maybe I should look into starting a polling company.

I will have a post a post mortem later.

[SpiffCoug]

I think that the outrageous increases in Obamacare prices over the last few days are what really caused this to happen. Every single person in the country just had their insurance costs go up 25-200% in the last few days. I think this pushed the undecideds and even some who were opposed to Trump to mark their ballots for President Trump.

Very few people can afford the Affordable Care Act.

I think this paid a very large role in the outcome as well. I think the FBI stories of the last two weeks reminded many voters just how corrupt Hillary is and either 1) brought enough Republicans home for Trump and 2) depressed enough Democrats to stay home.

[byufan4ever]

I think that the outrageous increases in Obamacare prices over the last few days are what really caused this to happen. Every single person in the country just had their insurance costs go up 25-200% in the last few days. I think this pushed the undecideds and even some who were opposed to Trump to mark their ballots for President Trump.

Very few people can afford the Affordable Care Act.

Wait, did it really go up for EVERY single person? Or just those on the Affordable Care Act?

[jvquarterback]

As my predictions failed miserably, looks like I will be keeping my day job. My only consolation is that all the national pundits prediction were worse than mine.

Nate Silver was giving a Trump a 30-35% chance of winning in the 3-4 days before the election.

When Ohio was solidly for Trump I began to doubt the polls in the upper midwest.