Spiff's Spots of Observation and Other Statistical Nonsense

[SpiffCoug]

It's back! My observations and analysis of the box score.

Observations:

• I did not believe Oldroyd would make the kick. I had zero confidence that BYU was going to win that game.
• Taysom looked comfortable with the offense. I did not see him rushing the play or his throws.
• As proof of the comfortability, I submit Taysom's 125.38 Passing Efficiency Rating (PER) in the 1st Half and his 156.05 2nd Half PER.
• While he looked comfortable, and did not look hesitant, he did look somewhat off. It's tough to describe, but he played conservatively. Whether that was by design and not trying to show too much to Arizona and saving some for Utah, I don't know. Maybe he just needs to regain confidence in his foot. This was likely the first time he was finally able to go 100% and just needs time to rediscover what he can do at 100%.
• Jamaal Williams was a beast. He ran strong and confidently. He will have a great season.
• However, 29 carries may be too much for him game-in and game-out. Last year, BYU fans, correctly, told Utah fans that Devonte Booker would get hurt carrying such a heavy load of the Ute offense. BYU needs another RB (Squally Canada?) to step up and play a larger and effective role.
• Jonah Trinnaman looked very good. As did Moroni Laulu-Pututau. They might be our two best WRs this year.
• Mitchell Juergens was noticeably missing. BYU needed that check-down WR.
• The defense played better than I thought they would. But they need Tuiloma to get healthy. Tanielu struggled the handful of times I focused on him.
• The LB corps was strong. Pau'u was and will be a solid MLB. Bernad was great at OLB, but he's too big to wear #13. He needs a bigger number - something in the 30s or 40s.
• Ty Detmer will be a very good
  play caller. In Anae's first game as an OC and play caller, BYU gained 338 yards. In Doman's first game as an OC and play caller, BYU gained 316 yards. And both of them had experience in FBS coaching. Detmer was in small, private high school conference last year.
• Sitake improved to 1-0 (1.000) against teams in a red helmet. Bronco was 11-8 (.579).
• BYU won the PER battle (142.3-112.97). The team with the better PER has won 11 straight BYU games and 20 of the last 22 games (.909).
• BYU ran 16 plays in the blue zone. That's more blue zone plays than all but in one game last year. However, BYU only scored 18 points on its four trips. At a minimum they should have had at least 20.
• The Cougars also weren't terribly explosive on offense. They had just two plays of 20 or more yards, the fewest since they had just one at Michigan last year.
• But they did have 13 plays of 10-19 yards, which would have been tied for second most last year.
• The last time BYU scored 18 points, it was in an 35-18 loss to USC in 2003.
• The last time the Cougars scored 18 points in a win was in an 18-13 win at Hawaii in 1984.

And as in previous seasons, I will also post the Receiver Efficiency Rating where I apply the PER formula to receivers with targets as attempts. In theory, this gives us an idea of which receivers are being effective and perhaps who should be targeted more.

Receiver Efficiency Rating

• Marshall, TE 221.80
• Brown, RB 217.60
• Pearson, WR 208.16
• Williams, RB 184.00
• Trinnaman, WR 144.51
• Laulu-Pututau, WR 135.27
• Balderee, TE 121.00
• Kurtz, WR 87.80
  Positions
• RB 200.80
• TE 171.40
• WR 151.98

And after next week, I'll start the BYU vs Opponent Averages, where I look at how BYU performed compared to the opponent's season averages.

[BoiseBYU]

This is really really good stuff

[Jarhead]

I agree with pretty much all of your opinions in that post and appreciate the stats. I also thought we were going to miss that field goal.

[Cougarfan87]

I agree with pretty much all of your opinions in that post and appreciate the stats. I also thought we were going to miss that field goal.

Ditto. Special teams was my biggest concern this offseason. So glad I was wrong.

[nuk13]

I agree with pretty much all of your opinions in that post and appreciate the stats. I also thought we were going to miss that field goal.

You guys can pat yourselves on the back. I gave it up when Arizona scored. It was after 11 pm but I wish I'd have held on another 5 minutes. On the other hand I had a wonderful surprise next morning to go to church with.

I am pleased that the team didn't give up and Oldroid stepped up (and kicked) big.

[frdbtr]

Great analysis. Your thoughts on the game are very close to mine. I enjoyed Detmer's play calling, I don't remember any head scratcher calls. I felt that the play calling was vanilla though, I don't know if that is because they were holding back the play book or because they haven't installed the whole offense yet. The offense didn't feel like it had a flow though but I think that will come with more time calling plays for Detmer. The defense was fantastic. They gave up 16 points to a team that rarely scores out of the 30's. I am more than pleased with the defense in all facets. Remove a couple of plays where guys were out of their assignment and Arizona only ends up with 3 points on the night. I had a lot of skepticism about the coaching change but hoped for the best. I saw what I was hoping for on Saturday. I'm not going to proclaim greatness yet but we have seen a great start!

[SpiffCoug]

I spent much of the last two weeks maligning Sitake and his attempts to play defense against RichRod. I was very pleased with how well prepared the defense was for the AZ attack. Great effort.

[The Wife of Hawkwing]

I agree with pretty much all of your opinions in that post and appreciate the stats. I also thought we were going to miss that field goal.

Ditto. Special teams was my biggest concern this offseason. So glad I was wrong.

Am I the only one who believed that we'd make it? I turned to Hawkwing and said, "We got this. He's going to make it. I know it."

First time I've ever been positive at the end of a game. Maybe I'll stick with it!

[BlueK]

I agree with pretty much all of your opinions in that post and appreciate the stats. I also thought we were going to miss that field goal.

Ditto. Special teams was my biggest concern this offseason. So glad I was wrong.

Am I the only one who believed that we'd make it? I turned to Hawkwing and said, "We got this. He's going to make it. I know it."

First time I've ever been positive at the end of a game. Maybe I'll stick with it!

I also thought he would make it. The fact the coaches thought they'd seen enough from him only in practice to send him out there in that situation speaks volumes.

[bigbluepuma]

I agree with pretty much all of your opinions in that post and appreciate the stats. I also thought we were going to miss that field goal.

Ditto. Special teams was my biggest concern this offseason. So glad I was wrong.

Am I the only one who believed that we'd make it? I turned to Hawkwing and said, "We got this. He's going to make it. I know it."

First time I've ever been positive at the end of a game. Maybe I'll stick with it!

Gotta love you , Mrs. H.