Utah game ... more of the same?

[CougarCrazy]

Somewhere in Texas today...

My son was talking to a fellow BYU fan in class. These kids are in Jr High and have never seen BYU beat Utah in their football aware lives and I know both have been especially furious the last couple of years.

The topic of conversation? How awesome Cosmo is and how much they are going to beat Utah by this year. (Sadly the highlight videos he has had to turn to are sometimes just cosmo dancing)

The class was taking turns logging into some app on an IPad. Then they would sign out and pass it to the next kid.

The kid next them hands my son the iPad and said “BYU is the worst! Utah rules!” A bit of a coincidence in this area, but it turns out that kids family are big Ute fans. Sounds like a fun class for my son.

The other kid forgot to sign out on the iPad. My son changed his profile pic to Cosmo. The kid doesn’t know how to change it back.

I think it’s a sign.

[hawkwing]

At least we'll get one win over the Utes this year, you're son owned him!

[Mars]

What's changed that leads anyone to believe that results will change?

Wilson?

If only we had had him last year.

Wilson was good enough to beat Utah last year. Too bad our coaches weren't.

You can't take your foot off the gas against Utah. You can't stop doing what is working. You can't try to coast, or play prevent D, or merely run down the clock on offense.

[Mars]

Yet the PAC is the least of the P5 conferences, so they might be the best of a mediocre conference.

Utah might be the 2nd best team in the PAC-12, but that's not saying a whole lot right now. They're being given a slot in the National rankings based on possible record in a P5 conference, not based on true strength. They seem the same as always- Strong defense, middling offense. They do have great depth now though. And Whitt doesn't lose to BYU anymore.

[BOID]

Not more of the same.

I am optimistic. I don’t think the Utes are any better this year than last, and BYU knows them. It’s essentially the same bunch of Utes on D, and their OL isn’t going to be as good. Meanwhile, Zac W was young and bold, then, and more experienced now, having grown further via that amazing bowl performance.

Everyone talks about how the Ute DL is going to wear out BYU’s deep, veteran OL. What I don’t hear as much, is that BYU’s DL is likely to be much more dominant over utah’s OL, than what will happen to BYU in reverse. Utah’s OL has been set back by graduation.

In the last contest, BYU lost Matt Hadley, who was really gouging the Utes. Then BYU was down to essentially one RB, Riley Burt. There were numerous defensive injuries. The Cougar coaching staff went into prevent mode, and also went overly conservative on offense, thinking they could ride it out with their big 20 point cushion. I’m not trying to bore you all with the obvious, except to underscore this point:

A whole ton of unlikely crap went down that favored the Utes in the last 20 minutes. That’s like being hit by lightning. It ain’t goin’ down like that again! Our players are not intimidated by what happened last year, and neither should we be expecting the worst. These cougars are stoked big-time for this contest, and I don’t think BYU’s staff will cower in the 4th quarter this time.

Does that mean we’re going to win? I don’t know, but I guarantee that, deep in their BYU-hating hearts, the Utes are more worried about this game than our guys are. They have more to lose. They are over-hyped, and ripe to lay an egg against us, like they laid a big one against North Western in their last bowl.

55% chance BYU wins. 35% chance BYU wins by ten points or more. Zac W, Hifo and Bushman and the OL are gold. The D is solid. If the following guys hold up and perform throughout the game, then BYU wins: Gunner, Moroni, Micah, Talon, Lopini, Ty’son W.

Go Cougars!

[CrimsonCoug]

On the plus side:
On net, I think we win the war of the trenches. Their strength against our strength--their D line vs our O line--washes out. We'll each have good trench play when we have the ball. And our O line did very well last year overall against their D throughout the game--I believe both sides return all players. But when the Utes have the ball, it's our strength vs their weakness. Our D line is much more experienced than their O line. In the first game of the season, that will matter.

They have a deeper bench, which will help them as the season progresses, but both sides can still only have 11 on the field at a time. I think our starters, and probably our 2-deep, match up well enough to give us a fighter's chance.

Finally, Grimes is now in his second season as OC, and the BYU Offensive staff is now in their second season together. Utah has yet another new OC. Granted, this isn't Ludwig's first time as OC, or even his first time as OC at Utah. But he's still new to the position this year, and that matters--particularly in the first half of the first game on a visiting field, when your staff is trying to figure out communication and lines of sight. I expect a letdown in the Utah O in the second half of the 1st quarter and the whole 2nd quarter, after they've gone through their initial script and before they can get together at half time. That's when Tuiaki should let loose some creativity (and I hope to heavens he's learned some!!!!)

ON the negative side:
Kalani seems to have Stockholm Syndrome regarding the Utes. I know he genuinely loves and respects Whittingham, and I have no problem with that. But I don't get the sense at all that the feeling is reciprocated. That means that the Utah coach is training his team to play in a rivalry of families a la the OK Corral, and the BYU coach is training his team to play in a family rivalry a la the Brady Bunch.

Tuiaki is still Tuiaki. Our defenses under Tuiaki have been solid but uncreative. Meaning, they're straight up smash mouth ball without a lot of variation, and don't create many turnovers.

Utah has a better kicking game. As usual.

Overall, I'm calling it a close one: 17-16 BYU.

[EM_Puma]

Here I sit in my office in Lehi wearing my royal blue shirt and I actually have the BYU flag Tom Holmoe gave to me last week at BYU Education Week hanging over the top of my office door. Officially our office is 83% BYU (5 of 6). The only dissident was born in Costa Rica, went to UVU two years and then to UW on a soccer scholarship. He says he only roots for Puketah because of them being in the Puke12.

Still, if I were a betting man, which I am not, I'd predict the score to be:
35 Puketah
21 BYU

I do have hope though.