Completion Pct, YPC, and Winning Percentage

[snoscythe]

From CougarStats, a grid showing the interplay of completion percentage (x-axis), yards per completion (y-axis), and win percentage (cell value):



This season BYU is averaging 59% completions, and 10.8 ypc, so an optimist might call us "overachievers," but my take is that's because the grid doesn't factor in defensive prowess at all, not because RN is some willpower machine.

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[SpiffCoug]

Yep, BYU doesn't go downfield enough. Doman has been very reluctant to go downfield regardless of the QB. He needs to go downfield.

[CougarClaw]

BYU definitely needs to go downfield more. Riley does not. Welcome to limited QB-U

Riley is not a down field passer. Do you really want Nelson, who misses WIDE OPEN Receivers at a mere 15 yards at least once a game, to be called on to make a perfect 40-yard rainbow to a streaking receiver up the sidelines? And you thought Nelson' TD/INT ratio was bad now.

For Worse or for worser, Nelson is the Qb and he has severe limitations. The way I feel now is that when Riley drops back to pass, 3 things can happen.
All of them are bad.

[SpiffCoug]

yes, I want Riley to go down field more.

[Lawboy]

Riley does not see thefield well. Apo is invsible to him. HE also throws moonballs down the field. OF course Doman calls few plays. RIley has the arm strength of a good high school QB. HE is best in the 15 yard zone and under, and everyone knows it.

[snoscythe]

I don't know whether it's (i) Doman not having downfield throws in the playbook, (ii) Doman is too afraid to call the downfield plays he has, (iii) Doman cannot call the downfield plays in his playbook, or (iv) Doman calls the downfield plays, but Nelson skips the primary reads frequently.

[snoscythe]

yes, I want Riley to go down field more.

Riley in Wazzou condition? Yes, with moderation.

Riley in post-Weber State condition? Heeeeeeeeeeeell no.

[SpiffCoug]

Riley threw downfield against Idaho and GT.

Yes, his deep ball may be lacking in zip and distance, and he may not hit guys in stride, but he can get it close to his big WRs liek Hoffman and Apo. Those guys can make plays on the ball - and they have - when Riley has gone down field.

[snoscythe]

Riley threw downfield against Idaho and GT.

Yes, his deep ball may be lacking in zip and distance, and he may not hit guys in stride, but he can get it close to his big WRs liek Hoffman and Apo. Those guys can make plays on the ball - and they have - when Riley has gone down field.

Since Weber State (beginning with the Utah game), Nelson has 42 completions over 12 yards, but 7 interceptions caught more than 12 yards past the LOS. If you push the receptions to over 15 yards to compensate for YAC, he's 35/7. That means when he throws the ball downfield, if it's not an incompletion one out of six times it's picked.

Then again if you want to pin your hat on the fact that he had 12 completions over 12 yards with no interceptions against the #114 and #115 ranked pass defenses, that's fine by me. Add to that some newly sustained cracked ribs and you want him to keep huckin' it downfield?

[SpiffCoug]

I still want BYU going downfield more.