Gunk wrote:craigoscarson wrote:Gunk wrote:BlueIsBetter wrote:It hurts me to say that this team is going to be bad next year. In the 10-15 wins range. All of our bigs added up don't equal one Erik Mika, and our best man defender now plays for Marquette (after being driven off in the culmination of a 2 years long coaching mistake.) We don't have a true passing point guard on the roster. Collinsworth, if he even gets on the court, has trouble delivering a bounce pass regularly under pressure without skipping one out of bounds or at someone's feet for a turnover. But that isn't the worst part. Anyone that watched last year should be used to seeing Collinsworth's matchup blow past him for 4 or 5 buckets within the first 7 minutes until Carlino would come in and play man. Well, expect that ALL SEASON LONG. That, combined with the fact that our coaching somehow doesn't understand that part of the appeal of starting a slow 6'6" person at point guard is his size for the position, and we will see exactly ZERO plays with Collinsworth posting up his man in the paint. Because, you know, it makes sense to get burned at one end of the court and not take advantage of size on the other
They might rack up wins with a fairly weak schedule, but I doubt even that. There is no way this team goes dancing, unless Chatman fresh off a mission, or someone fairly unexpected goes beast mode. Even then, you have to defend, and with Collinsworth, Haws, and Austin all on the starting court that isn't going to happen.
KC at point is the worst decision Rose has ever made. It's completely disrupted things and it will be a few years before the ship is righted. We don't have a PG, and we chased away the best player for the position.
I think we get more than 15 wins, though.
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By seasons end, assuming KC stays healthy, you will eat those words (in relation to KC at the point)... He's a future pro when healthy (rebounding is part of defense and KC is a top 2-3 best rebounding guard in the country)
If I were to bet I'd say we're a 10 seed next year and that we win 22 games
I don't think we'll miss Carlino at all and I have a feeling Bartley and Fischer are going to be very solid off the bench...
We will miss Mika, but our schedule is more forgiving this year and KC will be the team MVP (if healthy)...
I'd say my track record for forecasting BYU hoops stands on its own... Those that are skeptical aren't giving Coach Rose, KC or Tyler enough credit..
The last time a BYU team made it to the tourney with 22 wins was in 1994. I don't see us making it to the tournament next year in the WCC with 22 wins unless we win the WCC tournament. As Bib loves to point out, Rose rarely wins a conference tournament so it's most likely we won't win next year. At 22 wins I don't see us getting in.
I will be happy to eat my words regarding KC. I think he's a great player with a lot talent. I think he's playing out of position and it will cost us games.
Carlino was averaging 6 boards a game before he got benched if I recall correctly. Not too shabby for a PG either. Keep in mind many of KC's boards came when he wasn't playing point. Probably rebounded less.
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I have been right from time to time concerning things, and while I would LOVE for KC to be the answer at point and the best thing since Jimmer (OR BETTER!
) as someone who eschews the KOOLAID for something a little stronger (Dr. Pepper/Cherry Coke) I have to believe the evidence in front of me.
I think that KC is a FANTASTIC player, and I am a HUGE KC fan. He is a great player, playing the absolute wrong position, if not the wrong scheme. I respect Craig both in and out of the forums, and I would consider us friends in real life. It is completely fine to me that I see things different than some of you. It might be that this discussion is moot with an amazing offseason by KC, and it may be that he has corrected many of his shortcomings as a point guard.
To me, point guard is the most important position on the court if you want to be an elite team. I know some of you may point to the Heat as a rebuttal, but they are not an elite team. If they were in the Western Conference they wouldn't have made it to the NBA Finals in any of the last 4 years, let alone each one. The Heat were probably the 5th or 6th best team this year (Spurs, OKC, Clips, Houston, Portland, Memphis, Golden State), and that is having the best player on the planet on their team. But, I digress.
KC is not an elite point guard, not in the slightest. He might get there, but I don't see it happening this year. I don't even know if he will be an average point guard by the end of the year. I think there is a good chance he ends the season starting a different position than point. I think that he is Zylstra at point version 2.0 (with more talent), and that Rose will realize once again that he is playing a (in KC's case, major) player out of position and hurting the team, as losses against "good teams" (few and far between on our schedule) start to pile up. Whatever things I look for in a point guard (dribbling/ball control, court vision, passing, pressure defense, fast break ability, free throw shooting to close out games, side to side lateral quickness, a jumper to keep the defense honest and passing lanes open, a 3 pt shot is an added bonus) KC is either average at best, or poor at seasons end last year. Could he improve in each of these areas? It is possible, but not likely coming back from surgery.
As far as the rest of the team goes, Carlino was Haws' best friend getting him the ball in the exact perfect position to score coming off a double screen. He won't have that with KC for sure, and who knows who else on the team can even pass at the D-1 level. Haws' numbers go down without someone to feed him the ball for a (semi) open shot. A lot of people like to give Carlino crap for bad shots, but don't say anything about Haws throwing up shots while his toes are literally pointing at the other end of the court when starting his jumpshot. Expect a season long of those with someone that can't anticipate the screen and pass to the opening at point. There were multiple times a game that Carlino would pass the ball to - nobody - on the court, because he knew that Haws was curling around a double screen, and he would get the ball in the right position for an open look. KC hasn't shown me that he has the skills to make that pass on a play-in play-out basis. We will miss Carlino, dearly. But only a few of us will realize nuances like that in the game to notice.