Impact of SD Loss

[SpiffCoug]

IMO, the impact of the San Diego loss is that the remainder of the regular season is now irrelevant to BYU's chances of making the NCAA tournament. I do not believe BYU can make the NCAAs based upon their regular season resume.

I think the only way they can make the Tourney is to win the WCC tournament in March. Coach Rose has never won a conference tournament. 2015 would be a great time to start.

[byucougar1]

BYU is currently 15-7 and 5-4 in league play. If they can win 25 games they will be a lock for the NCAA tourney. To get to 25, they must beat the following teams at home:

1. USF
2. Santa Clara
3. St. Marys
4. Pacific
5. San Diego

They must win at least three on the road:

1. Pepperdine
2. LMU
3. Gonzaga (likely loss)
4. Portland

And they must win two games in the WCC tourney (very unlikely that they beat the Zags).

Tyler Haws stated they will make the necessary changes to win. With Austin likely out for season, this means double figure games must occur for Haws, Collinsworth, Winder, Fisher and Halford. For me, the X-factor is Fisher who seems to disappear during big - must win games. When he is off, generally, the team loses. Unless Haws and KC start scoring more, or we get improved play from some of the subs (Nixon, Kafusi, Toolson, Worthington, or perhaps Bartley's defense) this team is heading to the NIT.

[McY]

What kills me about this year's team, which coincidentally happens to be a primary cause for my need of therapy and counseling, is this year's lack of defense. When you are the top scoring team in the country by average, you would think that that an average or even below average defense would be enough to be undefeated or close to it. Yes, I know we have had a few poor scoring games for this year's BYU standard, but that does not change the point that the defense is unfortunately significantly inadequate. Assuming Austin does not return (and I hope somehow he can, but that sounds unlikely given the latest reports), we definitely need several someones to step up on defense. That, or half of Gonzaga's and Saint Mary's players would need to retire, but my hunch is that's not happening.

[snoscythe]

What kills me about this year's team, which coincidentally happens to be a primary cause for my need of therapy and counseling, is this year's lack of defense. When you are the top scoring team in the country by average, you would think that that an average or even below average defense would be enough to be undefeated or close to it. Yes, I know we have had a few poor scoring games for this year's BYU standard, but that does not change the point that the defense is unfortunately significantly inadequate. Assuming Austin does not return (and I hope somehow he can, but that sounds unlikely given the latest reports), we definitely need several someones to step up on defense. That, or half of Gonzaga's and Saint Mary's players would need to retire, but my hunch is that's not happening.

If you are looking for a statistic to back that up, BYU is tied for the 18th WORST scoring defense in the country, or tied with 2 other teams for the #326 scoring defense in the land out of 345 DI schools.

Lest you think that's merely a function of their high speed of play and number of possessions, BYU is also a below average #212 in field goal % defense, and #172 in 3 pt % defense.

BYU is not very good at anything on the defensive end, and the number of possessions they give to the other team each game just exacerbates those flaws. The nail in the coffin is BYU's turnover rate--they're turning it over 13 times a game. If you're not playing defense at a high level, the last thing you can afford to do is give the other team free possessions. If there was a statistic for dumb/lazy turnovers, this team might well be the worst in the country. If BYU could clean up 3 turnovers a game, that would be worth four extra wins this season.

[snoscythe]

BYU is currently 15-7 and 5-4 in league play. If they can win 25 games they will be a lock for the NCAA tourney.

NIT teams with 25+ wins in 2014:

Georgia State
Louisiana Tech

La. Tech only had one bad loss, but no resume wins and a loss in the CUSA finals put them in the NIT. Georgia Tech had a rough start in 2013 waiting for guys to come back from injury, but finished the season on a 22-2 run to finish 25-8--still wasn't good enough.

I think BYU might have used it's get-out-of-NIT-free card last season, and 25 wins is no guarantee of anything.

[byucougar1]

As of 1/26/15 BYU has a Pomeroy rating of 39 which is greater than Indiana, Miami, South Carolina, St. Mary's...The prior teams that you mentioned had Pomeroy ratings much higher than BYU despite 25 wins. Stanford and UMass wins and close loses to other teams are what is keeping BYU relevant. Not excusing them for losing to Pepperdine and SD but they are not getting blown out and do lead nation in scoring average. They are exciting to watch and have a good fan base. If they are close, committee will consider them based upon history.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

[Stirfry]

If there was a statistic for dumb/lazy turnovers, this team might well be the worst in the country. If BYU could clean up 3 turnovers a game, that would be worth four extra wins this season.

This seems to be the theme of the big 2 sports this year. Self imposed disadvantages.

[Gunk]

What kills me about this year's team, which coincidentally happens to be a primary cause for my need of therapy and counseling, is this year's lack of defense. When you are the top scoring team in the country by average, you would think that that an average or even below average defense would be enough to be undefeated or close to it. Yes, I know we have had a few poor scoring games for this year's BYU standard, but that does not change the point that the defense is unfortunately significantly inadequate. Assuming Austin does not return (and I hope somehow he can, but that sounds unlikely given the latest reports), we definitely need several someones to step up on defense. That, or half of Gonzaga's and Saint Mary's players would need to retire, but my hunch is that's not happening.

If you are looking for a statistic to back that up, BYU is tied for the 18th WORST scoring defense in the country, or tied with 2 other teams for the #326 scoring defense in the land out of 345 DI schools.

Lest you think that's merely a function of their high speed of play and number of possessions, BYU is also a below average #212 in field goal % defense, and #172 in 3 pt % defense.

BYU is not very good at anything on the defensive end, and the number of possessions they give to the other team each game just exacerbates those flaws. The nail in the coffin is BYU's turnover rate--they're turning it over 13 times a game. If you're not playing defense at a high level, the last thing you can afford to do is give the other team free possessions. If there was a statistic for dumb/lazy turnovers, this team might well be the worst in the country. If BYU could clean up 3 turnovers a game, that would be worth four extra wins this season.

The defense is bad. Which is so odd to me because transition basketball roots itself in defense, at least successful transition basketball team. We seem to have the transition part down.

The other week, there was a quote from Rose talking about how he'd rather shoot early in the shot clock so as to diminish the risk of losing the ball, which explains things a lot if you think about it.

As awesome as KC and our guards are, we have trouble securing the ball. 13 turnovers a game is a lot. Yes, KC averages 5.8 assists a game, but he's coughing up the ball 3 times a game. Halford isn't the best with ball security either. Fischer gets stripped almost every game. Haws looses it with regularity. I'm not being down on the guys, just pointing out the ball security issues and hence Rose's emphasis on shooting as early as possible in the shot clock. It's his philosophy.

Again, not a bad philosophy if you have the shooters and more importantly the defense. We have the shooters...

[Cougs_Rule]

It's not so much transition offense as, well, to put it candidly and slightly sarcastically, "Go Faster, Go Harder; and one factor folks haven't included in their Analyses of the losses, is that this fast paced O means more possession, more fatigue, and more fatigue as the season gets longer. I think this has happened to Haws the past three seasons. But that's kid of my pet perception. Could be wrong. Glad BYU had this Tuesday off.

[Brayden Green]

When your best point guard is coming off the bench in a reserve role (and no, I'm not talking about Winder, he is a 2 guard), you are going to have ball security problems. And I've said as much all season. BYU doesn't have a point guard, and should give a serious look to starting Halford in the 4 guard lineup, especially with Fischers down play (He could rotate in as a three headed monster with WInder, he and Halford splitting minutes at the one and two positions). KC can have the ball all he wants on the wings in the 3 point stance, but the days of him bringing the ball down the court should be gone. Get the ball to him on the wing and watch the defense worry about where he is all of the time. WHen he has the ball it's much easier to worry about him. Have him post and make back cuts and come off screens, the same way Haws does. He can't shoot from mid-range on, but he can get the ball in space, take a dribble and draw attention and dish or get to the line.