CougarCorner

mormonrasta wrote:Since 1972, BYU has won only 29% (21-52-1) of games against 7 win or better teams from the SWC, ACC, SEC, Big 8, Big 10, Big 12, Pac and major independents like Notre Dame and Miami.

Utah has won at least 7 games in the last 3 years.

Actually Utah only won 5 games 3 years ago, just the last two years they had more than 7 wins. Perhaps you were indicating Utah has won at least 7 games in 3 of the 5 years they have been in the pac 12?

hawkwing wrote:Doesn't look like the national pundits have bought into the Kalani effect so far.

I can't disagree with the graphic in Linton's tweet.

frdbtr wrote:

hawkwing wrote:Doesn't look like the national pundits have bought into the Kalani effect so far.

I can't disagree with the graphic in Linton's tweet.

I disagree with the graphic in Linton's tweet.

Arizona: BYU has a good chance to win this one as Arizona isn't as good as people think and is in Provo

Utah: BYU win as Utah has no offense as their offense graduated last year and defense is weaker due to loss of a number of seniors.

UCLA: BYU has a very good chance at a win as BYU Dominated them last year and only lost due to a key defensive injury in latter part of the 3rd QTR and is in Provo.

West Virginia: BYU win as this one is in Provo.

Toledo: BYU win as this one is in Provo.

Michigan St.: Probably a Loss but BYU will be competitive.

Mississippi St.: BYU has a chance because this game is in Provo but possibly a loss.

Boise St. Good chance of a win here as Boise St. is still rebuilding.

Cincinnati: BYU win as Cincy isn't very good.

Southern Utah: BYU wins big.

Massachusetts: BYU wins big as this game is in Provo and due to the fact Umass isn't very good.

Utah St.: BYU win as this is in Provo and USU no longer has Chuckie or their other starter that played when Chuckie was injured.

Based on this schedule and where the games are played I think BYU can win as many as 10 game but will finish with at least 8 wins and 9 or 10 wins if BYU gets lucky.

TheDean wrote:

frdbtr wrote:

hawkwing wrote:Doesn't look like the national pundits have bought into the Kalani effect so far.

I can't disagree with the graphic in Linton's tweet.

I disagree with the graphic in Linton's tweet.

Arizona: BYU has a good chance to win this one as Arizona isn't as good as people think and is in Provo

Utah: BYU win as Utah has no offense as their offense graduated last year and defense is weaker due to loss of a number of seniors.

UCLA: BYU has a very good chance at a win as BYU Dominated them last year and only lost due to a key defensive injury in latter part of the 3rd QTR and is in Provo.

West Virginia: BYU win as this one is in Provo.

Toledo: BYU win as this one is in Provo.

Michigan St.: Probably a Loss but BYU will be competitive.

Mississippi St.: BYU has a chance because this game is in Provo but possibly a loss.

Boise St. Good chance of a win here as Boise St. is still rebuilding.

Cincinnati: BYU win as Cincy isn't very good.

Southern Utah: BYU wins big.

Massachusetts: BYU wins big as this game is in Provo and due to the fact Umass isn't very good.

Utah St.: BYU win as this is in Provo and USU no longer has Chuckie or their other starter that played when Chuckie was injured.

Based on this schedule and where the games are played I think BYU can win as many as 10 game but will finish with at least 8 wins and 9 or 10 wins if BYU gets lucky.

If we hadn't had a coaching staff change in which all but 1 coach has virtually no coaching experience at his position at the college level, I would agree with you.

TheDean wrote:
Arizona: BYU has a good chance to win this one as Arizona isn't as good as people think and is in Provo

West Virginia: BYU win as this one is in Provo.

Neither one of these games is in provo. they are neutral site games the arizona game is in arizona and the west virginia game is in maryland.

But I liked Dean's thinking. We should have 8 home games. Cue in the Bib to rant on this issue.

I just don't see how we win the Arizona game. It's essentially an away game. First game under totally new coaching staff with VERY LITTLE coaching experience. New offensive system. New defensive system. And Arizona is probably better than most of you are giving them credit for.

byufan4ever wrote:I just don't see how we win the Arizona game. It's essentially an away game. First game under totally new coaching staff with VERY LITTLE coaching experience. New offensive system. New defensive system. And Arizona is probably better than most of you are giving them credit for.

I agree. Arizona is good, they have been good since the second or third year of Rodriguez, they give everyone in the Pac fits. BYU loses that game. The utes then make it 6 in a row, and it goes from there. I have believed this since Bronco left, BYU will be lucky to make a bowl game this year. If Bronco had stayed, it would have been different. New coaching staff plus the toughest schedule in BYU history spells disaster.

OVERVIEW
EDGE BYU: 5 (Toledo, @Cincinnati, SUU, UMASS, Utah St.)
TOSS-UP: 3 (v. Arizona, UCLA, Mississippi St.)
EDGE OPP: 4 (@Utah, v. WVU, @Michigan St., @Boise St.)

v. ARIZONA in Phoenix
Arizona game is Phoenix, but there will be a strong BYU contingency. Arizona has a somewhat porous defense AND lost its all-american havoc-causer, Scooby Wright (though he struggled with injuries last year). However, QB Anu Solomon and RB Nick Wilson have all-american potential, although injuries have plagued both. I put this game as a toss-up because:
- Solomon and Wilson won't have had the chance to get injured yet
- new BYU defense's first game....on the road

@UTAH
Utah only has 4 returning starters on offense and 4 on defense. Breaking in a new QB (who has nice potential). KS will approach this game as a true rivalry, which will help BYU's chances and avoid spotting the Ewetes 35 points. Plus, Taysom Hill should still be on the field in game 2.

Although my head and heart give BYU a nice edge, you can't ignore 5 losses in a row and the SLC venue. Edge Ewetes.

UCLA
QB Rosen is touted as a Heisman contender and possibly the best QB in the country. But, they have a new OC and will have to piece together a new oline. But, KS' defense will not be able to completely stop Rosen. The good news is that the Bruins are also replacing a lot on defense, but they are still talented. Expect a shootout...and home field advantage to play a key role. Another toss-up.

v. WVU in Landover, Maryland
Game is in Maryland, at Redskins' NFL home field venue. In the Big 12, WVU has competed well. In 2014, WVU provided Baylor its only loss - that kept the Bears out of the CFP - and lost to TCU by 1 point. They have good skill players on offense and speedy defense. I think BYU will compete in this game. Although it's a neutral-site contest, it's still in WVU territory and it will be BYU's first game outside of the Mountain timezone. Kickoff time could be a factor. Still, solid edge to WVU.

TOLEDO
The Rockets have a new head coach and a new QB. But the new coach is a long-time assistant internal promotion and the "new" QB was Toledo's 2014 QB that went 9-4 and won a bowl game. He redshirted last year. Toledo also has two quality running backs and a solid defense. Toledo had a 10-win season in 2015 and beat Temple in its bowl game (the same Temple team that beat Penn St. and competed to the final whistle against Notre Dame.) Toledo is VERY MUCH under BYU fans' radar - much like ECU and Cincinnati last year, both of which provided competitive games in Provo. I give BYU the edge in this one, though it won't likely be the dominant win that most expect (think ECU, which was a 7-point, come-from-behind win for the Cougars).

@MICHIGAN ST.
Michigan St. regularly challenges for the B1G East division title and is coming of a B1G championship and CFP season! Don't expect much let down in 2016, but the Spartans must replace its starting QB and fill big holes in the receiving corps and dline. (The frontrunner for the QB spot is the backup (O'Connor) that beat Ohio St. last year!) Expect this game to fall somewhere in between last year's Michigan and Nebraska games - which means it should be competitive, but a hail-mary won't make up the difference. Solid edge to Michigan St.

MISSISSIPPI ST.
Elite game-changer QB Dak Prescott is gone. He was the leader of the offense and put up impressive numbers in the SEC. Led MSU to 9 and 10-win seasons. The Bulldogs cannot replace him, which means they will regress. They also lose a ton on defense, which means that MSU will likely be an SEC bottom-dweller in 2016. However, don't let that fool you - see Missouri '15. Expect a similar opponent as what we saw in Mizzou last year. Good news is that the game is in Provo. Bad news is that it is the 7th consecutive game without a Bye and follows the the Michigan St. road trip on a short week (Friday). Though I truly believe BYU will show-up and win this game, it has to be labeled as a toss-up until BYU can prove otherwise that it can take care of business in these types of games. Should be a great night for football!

@BOISE ST.
They are not rebuilding - that was last year. They have 9 returners on offense, including QB Rypien, who could be the second best QB that BYU faces all season. The BYU-BSU series has seen a nice back-and-forth exchange of blows. It is truly emerging into a rivalry game and atmosphere. BYU still hasn't beaten Boise St. on the blue turf - until they do, you have to give the edge to Boise St..

@CINCINNATI
We aren't giving Cincinnati much credit. Although they finished the 2015 season with only 7 wins, they gave BYU a competitive game in Provo and had narrow losses against top-25 teams Temple, Memphis, and Houston. The Bearcats return QB Gunner Kiel (although Hayden Moore is still fighting for starting rights) and will be able to continue to put up tons of points. This one will be a shoot out. For BYU, this game comes after the bye week, so the Cougars should be rested and ready for the long road trip. BYU will also have been tested mightily and seasoned in the previous 8 games listed above, so edge to BYU.

SUU
We lose this game and we don't deserve to go bowling. We took half of SUU's coaching staff and should overwhelm them with talent on both sides. Overwhelming edge to BYU.

UMASS
UMass is coming off a 3-9 season and its first glimpse of football independence. They aren't good, but did so shines of life on both sides of the ball last year. Four of their 9 losses came by 7 points or fewer. Still, game is in Provo after the FCS game - should be a BYU blowout. Significant edge to BYU.

UTAH ST.
Sure, Chuckie is gone, but Myers is more than adequate. Utah St. has put together a solid MWC program. They are no longer a push over and will treat this as a rivalry game. However, BYU will be coming off of two weeks that should be dominant wins with plenty of rest for the starters. Utah St. will likely be coming off a couple of wins too, but probably well-fought. I think KS and crew will have the team pumped for this season finale in Provo. Time to put Utah St. back in its place with 5 wins in 6 years and 15 wins in the last 17 meetings. Edge to BYU.

If BYU can win the five games in which we are the favorite and pull at least one victory from the toss-up pile, we will play in the Poinsettia Bowl. However, that would equal a fairly disappointing season.

To have a good season, BYU needs to win 8 games. That likely means that the Cougars win all of the favored games and win at least 3 out of the 7 toss-up and underdog games. BYU could have a shot at a top-25 season with 8 wins (before the bowl game), depending on how and when those wins come.

The unfortunate aspect of the 2016 season is that the toughest competition comes in the first 6 or 7 games of the season. BYU could easily find itself with a losing record for more than half of the season, even if we go bowling. In fact, if BYU finishes October with a winning record (5-3), we mostly likely see a pretty darn good finish in the rankings with a 9-3 record.

BYU would finish as a solid top-25 team with 9 wins, but that will only come if BYU overachieves.

BYU's ceiling is 10 wins (which would be a tremendous season in which BYU finishes with a good ranking) - I just don't see BYU beating more than 5 out of this group: @Michigan St., v. WVU, @Boise ST., @Utah, v. Arizona, UCLA, Mississippi St.

My gun-to-the-head prediction is that BYU finishes the regular season 7-5, winning one of the underdog games (most likely @Boise St.), but losing one of the favored games (most likely @Cincinnati).

BYU would have a better chance against Utah State if Chuckie were back, Keeton never beat BYU and in fact never played well against the Cougar defense.