Vote For 2016 Projected Wins

[byufan4ever]

There's been some good discussion in the other thread about how many games our football team can win this upcoming season. We're still 4+ months away, but let's play a fun game and put a % chance to win each game and then I'll consolidate everyone's inputs. So far I've put down ESPN and myself:

I'm down for 7 wins including very optimistic wins against Utah and Boise St.!

*Edit - updated above graphic to show everyone's inputs thus far.

[hawkwing]

Arizona: 60%
Utah: 50%
UCLA: 51%
West Virginia: 40%
Toledo: 69%
Michigan St.: 10%
Mississippi St: 25%
Boise St.: 65%
Cincinnati: 60%
Southern Utah: 95%
Umass: 51%
Utah St.: 75%

[StatsCougar]

There's been some good discussion in the other thread about how many games our football team can win this upcoming season. We're still 4+ months away, but let's play a fun game and put a % chance to win each game and then I'll consolidate everyone's inputs. So far I've put down ESPN and myself:

BYU Wins FB 2016.PNG

I'm down for 7 wins including very optimistic wins against Utah and Boise St.!

ESPN predicts 6.39 victories. They favor us in 5 games.
You are predicting 6.84 victories, but favor us in 7 games.

Arizona 40%
Utah 45%
UCLA 40%
West Virginia 45%
Toledo 70%
Michigan St. 10%
Mississippi St. 35%
Boise St. 55%
Cincinnati 60%
Southern Utah 95%
Umass 99%
Utah St. 80%

[Wolverine]

My says 9 wins and in all probability 10 with a win over
Arizona: 60%
Utah: 49%
UCLA: 60%
West Virginia: 40%
Toledo: 75%
Michigan St.: 25%
Mississippi St: 51%
Boise St.: 70%
Cincinnati: 80%
Southern Utah: 99%
Umass: 90%
Utah St.: 70%

[BOID]

Arizona: 65
Utah: 65
UCLA: 70
West Va: 65
Toledo: 75
Mich St: 30
Miss St: 65
Boise St: 60
Cinci: 65
So Utah: 90
U Mass: 95
Utah St: 70

I predict 9 wins. My percentages might look like 11 wins, but if you multiply them together, they drop below 50. Therefore, we will likely drop 2, and possibly 3 that I favored us for.

[mizzoucoug]

Arizona 60
Utah 55
UCLA 60
WV 30
Toledo 75
Mich St 25
Miss St 40
Boise St 55
Cinci 55
SUU 95
UMass 95
Utah St 85

[byufan4ever]

ESPN predicts 6.39 victories. They favor us in 5 games.
You are predicting 6.84 victories, but favor us in 7 games.

That's a very good distinction. Thank you!

[byufan4ever]

Here's the summary so far:

Have to say that I'm surprised at the 9 favored wins (Arizona at 50.1% counts as a W). Boid, I appreciate your optimism, but I hope your not betting your life savings on these results!! I really do think that we'll struggle our first game out against Arizona. New coaches (many FIRST time coaches at this level), new offense, new defense, essentially an away game. I don't know a ton about Arizona, but they'll be no push over.

[BOID]

That's why I gave us 60 percent over Arizona. First game of season, and on the road. If it had been at home in November, I would have given us 85 over the Wildcats. If UCLA had been on the road, and at same first weekend, then I might have called that one at 45. And this because I respect UCLA more than Arizona.

[scott715]

Arizona 70
Utah 45
UCLA 60
WV 50
Toledo 90
Mich St 20
Miss St 40
Boise St 45
Cinci 75
SUU 99
UMass 100
Utah St 85