Big 12 Expansion at 15%

[hawkwing]

Ultimately it's up to Texas, and they don't want to expand, so they need to see that it's in their best interest.

Texas wanted no conference network, and OU gave them that. But the hired consultants suggested both expanding and adding a championship game. The Billion dollars we hear about comes from expansion computations (from 10 to 14 teams, I believe).

I believe you're right on that, but taking out the conference game, all additional money that comes from expansion would go to the new teams so the original/existing teams would get no additional money out of the deal, except possibly a year or two when the expansion teams don't make 100% of their cut. So for Texas that extra money from expansion means absolutely zero. They will already be getting their cut of the title game money whether they expand or not, so that also doesn't help move the needle to expand.

[Mars]

Ultimately it's up to Texas, and they don't want to expand, so they need to see that it's in their best interest.

Texas wanted no conference network, and OU gave them that. But the hired consultants suggested both expanding and adding a championship game. The Billion dollars we hear about comes from expansion computations (from 10 to 14 teams, I believe).

I believe you're right on that, but taking out the conference game, all additional money that comes from expansion would go to the new teams so the original/existing teams would get no additional money out of the deal, except possibly a year or two when the expansion teams don't make 100% of their cut. So for Texas that extra money from expansion means absolutely zero. They will already be getting their cut of the title game money whether they expand or not, so that also doesn't help move the needle to expand.

Correct. It's basically a prestige move. Go from 10 to 12 teams, drop from 9 to 8 conference games, create 2 divisions with 6 teams each to legitimize the CCG. The top teams will have less losses once they miss 3 big12 opponents a year, but will be viewed as stronger after playing game 13. The conference is viewed as stronger by having a healthier number as well.

[BOID]

Now that it's been established that they can have their CCG with ten members, I think the main benefit remaining for expansion is that the conference can survive. This should be more of an issue than by what increased percentage chances there might be of making the national play off. They should be worried about losing a few essential powerhouse members, with the resulting loss of power conference status, or even the complete dissolution of the conference.

BYU is a nationally prominent brand, and would strengthen that conference immediately. BYU's brand in FB exceeds that of half of their members. Even Baylor, with their recent success, does not measure up to either BYU's history of success, or BYU's national brand. Oklahoma State is not exactly a power house, or a big national brand. Then there's TT, KU, KSU, ISU, that clearly do not measure up to BYU's history or brand. On the up side, there is UT, OU, TCU, and WVU. The latter two have more recent history of success than OSU, and a longer history of success than Baylor, but still not as long as BYU's.

My point is that this conference needs BYU, because it is facing a problem that is bigger than revenue, and bigger than the goal of increasing CFP chances. UT and OU are the only members with a strong enough brand to have the luxury of ignoring the danger of loss of conference. The others have to worry about whether they will be picked up by the remaining four power conferences after UT and OU are poached. Of the rest, perhaps WVU, TCU and OSU would have the best outlook, but not guaranteed.

With these circumstances, it seems that at least eight of the ten schools should be agreeable to expansion (by-laws only require eight). They will shoot themselves in the foot if they're only acting out of short term monetary goals.

Still, even with expansion, there is no guarantee that they would select BYU, even though BYU is the one that would strengthen them the most. They already lost two of their previous top four brands, when Texas A/M and Nebraska left. They're not going to get FSU or Clemson (except maybe in their dreams). They need BYU, and perhaps more than BYU needs them.

[jvquarterback]

If Texas wanted to burn the Big12 they'd take 4 more schools and pay them as little as possible until the contract expires then move to the B1G, SEC, ACC, or PAC whichever maximizes revenues. I don't think that's in their best interest, in part because revenue isn't everything (Texas would gladly switch positions right now with Alabama).

We are all talking about what gives the Big12 champ the best shot at making the CFP, but what is more important to Texas is what gives Texas the best chance at making the CFP. Is it a 10, 12, or 14 team league? What is the probability if they jump to the SEC, PAC, ACC, or B1G? Does Texas know? How much would a CFP be worth to Texas in terms of donations and ticket sales?

Another question is at what $ value would USC/UCLA, FL St, UNC, UVa, and others consider dropping their current leagues? 3M, 7M, 12M, 20M. All of those schools are allegedly 5-7M behind the Big12 without even considering 3rd tier rights - so maybe 10-15M lower than what they could do in the Big12. At what point is that enough to bail from the PAC or ACC?

[SenorCougar]

Playlng on Sunday... I suppose good LDS members cannot be doctors, policemen, or firemen.

[hawkwing]

Playlng on Sunday... I suppose good LDS members cannot be doctors, policemen, or firemen.

Yep, amateur athletics is clearly more or equally important and necessary than doctors, policemen, firemen, military members, etc.

[CentralCoastCoug]

I agree with Boid above on most of what he says, however, there are a few problems with that line of thinking.

1. Those other schools don't believe BYU is a better team than them. The mentality is not that BYU can save them, but they would be doing a favor to BYU by including them. Have you not heard the mighty "fans" from up north? They drink the same Kool-Aid as those from the lesser big 12 schools. I'm sure they don't consider themselves to be less than BYU.
2. Inviting BYU or anyone else isn't going to make the league more stable. They see the league being stable if UT and Oklahoma stay. If the remaining 8 go against texas and oklahoma and piss off the two that have all the power, they would essentially be pushing them out the door. The league would collapse if that happens whether or not BYU is in the league. When Texas decides they want another team is when we stand a chance of getting in. Until then, we shouldn't get too excited.

[hawkwing]

I agree with Boid above on most of what he says, however, there are a few problems with that line of thinking.

1. Those other schools don't believe BYU is a better team than them. The mentality is not that BYU can save them, but they would be doing a favor to BYU by including them. Have you not heard the mighty "fans" from up north? They drink the same Kool-Aid as those from the lesser big 12 schools. I'm sure they don't consider themselves to be less than BYU.
2. Inviting BYU or anyone else isn't going to make the league more stable. They see the league being stable if UT and Oklahoma stay. If the remaining 8 go against texas and oklahoma and piss off the two that have all the power, they would essentially be pushing them out the door. The league would collapse if that happens whether or not BYU is in the league. When Texas decides they want another team is when we stand a chance of getting in. Until then, we shouldn't get too excited.

Great point, the Big 12 is not a P5 conference, Texas (and to a lesser extent OU) are a P5 conference.

[BOID]

Good points, CentralCoastCoug. I think we see eye to eye. I didn't present that angle because I was feeling badly about my post growing too long. I agree that the Big 12 peasant members do not realize that BYU can save them. Nevertheless, it is how I see it. I think their conference suffered a loss of national brand prestige when the Aggies and the Huskers left. Now they've only got UT and OU to carry the nationally recognized brand. Baylor has been very good for only a few years, but their recognition is very regional. And so on and so on down the list.

I previously avoided talking about money. But, I think that monetary payout for TV contracts is another way that BYU can save them. You see, if UT and OU realize that they can make more money in their present conference, then they won't be so easily enticed to leave, and the peasant programs won't have to worry so much about pissing them off. The programs with the bigger brand and fan base will deliver that marketability the best, and that would be BYU. It isn't so much the latest program rankings as it is the long term development of fan base and brand recognition. Teams like TCU or Boise St. have out- ranked BYU over the past seven years, but they still have a long way to go to get close to BYU in national fan base and brand.

I think that brand brings money, and that money keeps the power players home. Brand also brings perceived strength of schedule, which increases playoff chances.

I don't expect the Big 12 to do what they should. A combination of pride and prejudice will likely cause them to do something else. It will be their loss, whether they realize that or not.

[BOID]

I re-read my post above, and realized that I left something out. When saying that bringing in new, big brand names brings money, I didn't mean immediately. I meant long term, maybe even as long as 2023, when the Big 12 TV deal is up for renegotiation. Still, a conference that has been losing brand names and is down to just two significant ones, can not afford to wait until 2023 to start that development. The conference reputation for competition and TV draw could be languishing some over the next six years. Therefore, it would be most prudent for them to lock BYU in now.

Disclaimer: This is all simply IMHO. I really don't KNOW anything.

Also, I stand behind my previous declarations that I really don't expect that conference to invite BYU, even though they should, for their own good. Local pride will likely prevent many of the members from recognizing the national scope of BYU's brand.

Finally, I am still happy with independence. Don't need to repeat all the reasons why independence is good for BYU.