mormonrasta wrote:EDIT:
I just looked up how our best teams perform against "major" programs. Major is defined as Big 8/10/12, Pac 8/10/12, Big East, SWC, SEC, ACC, and major independents like Notre Dame.
When BYU has finished the season ranked in a major poll, BYU's record against "major" programs is 31-21-1 .594 win pct. We have a .643 win pct. at home and a .524 win pct. on the road. In neutral site games against such teams we have a .640 win pct.
So if Kalani, has the same home win pct. and the same road win pct as our best teams, and we win both of our neutral site games he goes 16-10 against this schedule. That's 2 losses per year over the next 5 years not factoring in Boise. Is that worth it?
Absolutely. That's 9 or 10 wins per season, with wins over the likes of LSU, Wisconsin, Arizona, Cal, and Utah. Would we rather play an MWC schedule for the *hope* that we get to play *one of* LSU or Wisconsin in a bowl game (more likely Arizona or Cal in Las Vegas, if we're lucky)?
Over the last 5 years, BYU has won 45% of P5 regular season games (11/24) and 77% of G5 regular season games (24/31) and 100% of FCS games (5/5). That 45% record against P5 saw only 33% of the games in Provo and over 58% on the road (2 neutral). The next 5 seasons have 43% of the games in Provo, 50% on the road, with 2 neutral.
Over the next 5 seasons, let's say BYU wins 50% of the P5 games and 80% of the G5 games and 100% of the FCS games (not accounting for bowl games):
2017 = 9 wins; 2-2 v. P5 (LSU, Utah, Wisconsin, Mississippi St.) and 6/7 v. G5.
- BYU gets awesome home games against Utah and Wisconsin (and Boise St.) and a cool neutral-site game in Houston against the Tigers. The Cougars finish in the rankings conversation and chance for 10 wins via the bowl game.
2018 = 8 or 9 wins; 2-3 (or 3/2) v. P5 (Arizona, Cal, Wisconsin, Washington, Utah) and 4/5 v. G5.
- BYU gets 2 more quality P5 wins and again finishes in the rankings conversation and perhaps another chance for 10 wins.
2019 - 8 or 9 wins; 2-3 (or 3/2) v. P5 (Utah, Tennessee, USC, Washington, Washington St) and 4/5 v. G5.
- BYU has an amazing home slate, with Utah, USC, and Washington coming to Provo, and a fantastic road trip to Knoxville. The Cougars again finish in the rankings conversation and perhaps another shot at double digit wins.
2020 - 8 wins; 3-3 v. P5 (Utah, Michigan St., ASU, Minnesota, Missouri, Stanford) and 4/5 v. G5.
- Great home games with Michigan St. and Missouri and a trip to Palo Alto and the (first ever?) trip to Minneapolis. Depends on how the P5 finish in the rankings, but that is probably BYU's toughest schedule to date, especially with Utah, Boise St., and Stanford on the road.
I'll take 8 or 9 wins with exciting games against historic programs every chance I get. Are we really that insecure about BYU's place in college football that we would choose an easier road - and much worse schedule - to a mythical top-25 ranking - by filling the schedules in our favor against MWC lightweights and road trips to Laramie and Albuquerque?