I honestly think everyone is underrating BYU.

I could see BYU winning by 10. I know, blue goggles, but here’s why:

1. How good is Shapen? He didn’t break 200 yards passing against KSU or OSU. I think BYU is better, and he will struggle. Sure he’d went for 254 against TT, but that was in Waco. He will find it much harder under the lights in LES.

2. Hall is better. It’s easy to underestimate how much Hall being less than 100% in Waco mattered last year. But he’s not just in better health, his skill has improved—and that’s saying a lot. I don’t think BYU will struggle to put up 24 as they did last year. I think they’ll clear 30 with more to come if they catch a break or two.

3. Baylor defense will not be ready. Seriously. BYU kept it so vanilla last week, they will be confused by the A-rod’s misdirection. Just think how easy it would be for Hall to hand off to Katoa who passes it back to Hall in the corner. BYU’s Oline can move! You see the breakdown of that play to Davis? Just imagine that’s Hall instead of Davis. Hall who has the option to run or throw over the top. Indefensible.

4. Chris Brooks. Okay most people are underestimating how good his game is going to be. Because they don’t think he looks as good as Algier, they assume he will struggle like Tyler did. But BYU’s Oline has been upgraded. Compare BYU’s Oline play against USF last year, and consider that USF is better this year and we played in Tampa. Brooks will get some yards as will Katoa because this Oline will dominate. I think it will be like Utah last year, maybe better. But Brooks is big. If he gets into the secondary he break tackles in ways that will have us saying Tyler who?

5. Offensive line (see above).

6. Tight ends. Total X factor here that no one knows how to account for. But we all know Wake, Rex and Holker can cblocj catch and run. These guys are the safety valve Hall didn’t need last game. If Baylor gets pressure (big IF at altitude and against the upgraded Oline) the tight ends can bail out Jaren. The defense will have to respect them and it will keep them on their heels.

7. Secondary. BYU’s secondary is upgraded. Maybe not by much, but enough that it will matter. Baylor will test it thinking they’ve got the goods in Shapen, but I’m skeptical he’ll be consistent at doing so. Frankly I hope they keep trying because that will lead to INTs. On the other side, Hall should have a field day against the underexperienced Baylor secondary. I think he throws for well over 300.

8. Linebackers. BYU went 3-0 against Utah and Arizona teams. That had a LOT to do with Pili and Wilgar who are 100% for this game (not so in Waco).

There’s more but the rest could be a wash with Baylor’s improvements in other areas.

I see the possibility for this game to end BYU 37-17 if the cougars get a break. Which they probably will because…

9. ROC. I bought a ticket for the south stands. It’s gonna be epic. Saturday night? Remember what people said about the noise for both the Utah and ASU games? I’m guessing this game will make people forget those ones.

Here’s hoping.