Church of the Undefeated PLAYOFF Season

[redneckjedi]

Hello brothers and sisters, now that we're halfway through a really weird season, I think it's high time for the restoration of the Church of the Undefeated Season. Yes, it will be virtual, but hey - it always was!

The signs have already begun to appear. The Big XII lost multiple games to the Sun Belt. Oklahoma lost twice, then beat Texas, who had already lost to now 1-2 TCU. Florida lost to Texas A&M, Tennessee was obliterated by Kentucky. UNC lost to a bad FSU team. Auburn lost to a bad South Carolina team. Nick Saban arose from his death bed and smote Georgia. And Coastal Carolina is undefeated and ranked.

So come, mark the roll, bear testimony, and don't forget the sign-up sheet that will be going around.

Things are different now, and it's because of 1 word: playoff! Right now, predictions are giving us around a 10% chance to become the first non-P5 team to play in the playoff. So yes, the Undefeated Season is Good. But the Playoff is even Better. And this is how it is going to happen. All we need is the status quo in the SEC and ACC, a dominant Ohio State, Pac-12 parity, the continued self-immolation of the Big XII, some slip ups from ND, SMU, and Cincy, we're in. Your thoughts and prayers are requested on behalf of the following scenarios.

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BYU to CFB PLAYOFF
Current Odds: 10.3% ESPN Playoff Predictor

Current Rankings:
AP                         | Coaches
---------------------------+---------------------------
1.  Clemson (5-0)          | 1.  Clemson (5-0)
2.  Alabama (4-0)          | 2.  Alabama (4-0)
3.  Notre Dame (4-0)       | 3.  Notre Dame (4-0)
4.  Georgia (3-1)          | 4.  Georgia (3-1)
5.  Ohio State (0-0)       | 5.  Ohio State (0-0)
6.  Oklahoma State (3-0)   | 6.  Oklahoma State (3-0)
7.  Texas A&M (3-1)        | 7.  Penn State (0-0)
8.  Penn State (0-0)       | 8.  Florida (2-1)
9.  Cincinatti (3-0)       | 9.  Texas A&M (3-1)
10. Florida (2-1)          | 10. Cincinatti (3-0)
11. Miami (3-1)            | 11. Miami (3-1)
12. BYU (5-0)              | 11. BYU (5-0)
13. Oregon (0-0)           | 13. North Carolina (3-1)
14. North Carolina (3-1)   | 14. Wisconsin (0-0)
14. Wisconsin (0-0)        | 15. Oregon (0-0)
16. SMU (5-0)              | 16. SMU (5-0)
17. Iowa State (3-1)       | 17. Michigan (0-0)
18. Michigan (0-0)         | 18. Iowa State (3-1)
19. Virginia Tech (3-1)    | 19. Kansas State (3-1)
20. Kansas State (3-1)     | 20. Virginia Tech (3-1)
21. Minnesota (0-0)        | 21. Minnesota (0-0)
22. Marshall (4-0)         | 22. NC State (4-1)
23. NC State (4-1)         | 23. USC (0-0)
24. USC (0-0)              | 24. Coastal Carolina (4-0)
25. Coastal Carolina (4-0) | 25. Marshal (4-0)

Easiest Playoff Path:
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. BYU

Biggest Obstacles
1. ND
2. Georgia
3. Oklahoma St.
4. Penn State
5. Florida
6. Cincinnati
7. Texas A&M
8. Miami
9. North Carolina
10. An undefeated Pac-12 team
11. SMU
12. Iowa State
13. Kansas State

Requirements:
1. BYU is undefeated
 A. 10/24 vs Texas State
 B. 10/31 vs Western Kentucky
 C. 11/06 @  Boise
 D. 11/21 vs North Alabama
 E. 11/28 @  Army? (here's hoping!)
 F. 12/12 vs San Diego State
2. No conference gets two teams in
 A. SEC
  I.   Alabama wins out, wins SEC title game
       (vs Georgia/Florida in SEC title)
  II.  Texas A&M needs another loss (11/28 vs LSU, 12/5 @ Auburn)
   a. Any loss works, shouldn't contribute to leapfrogging
  III. Georgia/Florida (11/7) winner loses SEC title game (vs Bama?)
   a. Prefer UGA over FLA, it's doubtful anyone wants UGA vs Bama 3
 B. ACC
  I.   Clemson wins out, wins ACC title game
  II.  Notre Dame needs 2 losses (11/7 vs Clem, 11/27 @ UNC)
   a. Not many other chances for them to lose
  III. Miami needs 1 loss (11/6 @ NCST, 11/14 @ VT, 12/5 vs UNC)
   a. Prefer L @ NC State, L @ VT, W vs UNC
  IV.  North Carolina needs 1 loss (12/5 @ Miami, vs ND)
   a. Prefer L @ Miami, W vs ND
 C. B1G
  I.   Ohio State rolls everyone (10/31 @ PSU, 12/12 vs Mich),
       wins title game
  II.  Winner of Michigan vs Penn State (11/28) loses to someone else 
       besides Ohio State
  III. West division winner has 1 loss before title game
3. 2 P5 conferences get zero teams in (PAC-12, Big XII?)
 A. PAC-12 does what the PAC-12 does
  I.   Title game winner (#13 Oregon? #24 USC?) has 1+ losses
 B. Big XII continues to self-immolate
  I.   Oklahoma State needs at least one loss, preferrably two 
       (10/24 vs ISU, 10/31 vs UT, 11/7 @ KSU, 11/21 @ OU )
  II.  Kansas State needs another loss
       (11/7 vs OKST, 11/21 @ ISU, 12/5 vs UT)
   a. They already have a bad loss to Arkansas St, maybe optional
  III. Iowa State needs another loss
       (10/24 @ OKSU, 11/21 vs KSU, 11/27 @ UT)
   a. They already have a bad loss to Lousiana, maybe optional
  IV.  If West Virgina or Baylor become ranked, they need another loss
   a. UT is a good two-loss team (by 2 to TCU, OT to OU) that plays all
       5 of these teams
4. G5 gets no teams in
 A. AAC
  I.   Cincinatti needs 1 loss
       (10/24 vs SMU, 11/7 vs Houston)
  II.  SMU needs 1 loss
       (10/24 vs Cincy, 10/31 vs Navy, 11/21 vs Houston)
 B. C-USA
  I.   Marshall needs 1 loss
   a. Any loss would be an upset
 C. MW
  I.   Boise State/SDSU wins title game
 D. MAC
  I.   Not much concern here yet
 E. Sun Belt
  I.   Coastal Carolina needs 1 loss
  
Games to Watch (best outcome):
10/24
BYU vs TXST    (BYU)
SMU vs Cincy   (SMU)
OKST vs ISU    (ISU)

10/31
BYU vs WKU     (BYU)
PSU vs OSU     (OSU)
OKST vs UT     (UT)

11/6-7
BYU @ Boise    (BYU)
ND vs Clem     (Clem)
UGA vs FLA     (UGA)
NCST vs Miami  (NCST)
KSU vs OKST    (KSU)

11/14
VT vs Miami    (VT)

11/21
BYU vs UNA     (BYU)
OU vs OKST     (OU)
ISU vs KSU     (KSU)

11/27-28
UNC vs ND      (UNC)
A&M vs LSU     (LSU)
Mich vs PSU    (Mich)
UT vs ISU      (UT)

12/5
Aub vs A&M     (Aub)
Miami vs UNC   (Miami)
UT vs KSU      (UT)

12/12
BYU vs SDSU    (BYU)
OSU vs Mich    (OSU)
ACC CHAMP?     (Clem)
Big XII CHAMP? (???)

12/18-19
SEC CHAMP      (Bama)
B1G CHAMP      (OSU)
ACC CHAMP?     (Clem)
PAC 12 CHAMP   (???)

By the hand of Zach Wilson and the power of Boney Fuller, so let it be written, so let it be done.

[frdbtr]

I'd love to see it but the playoff isn't going to happen. They would put 2 sec teams in long before that happens. BYU beats Boise and an undefeated regular season is going to happen.

[redneckjedi]

Paul Finebaum, help thou his unbelief:

[YNot]

Easiest Playoff Path:
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. BYU

ACC - Notre Dame did not look great against Louisville. The Irish will lose to Clemson on 11/7 and could lose 2 or 3 more games. They play @Pitt, @Boston College, and @North Carolina. Any of those teams could up end the Notre Dame obstacle. And, no one is going to beat Clemson. So, whoever Clemson plays in the CCG is bounds out of CFP consideration with their second loss.

SEC - I think we want Georgia to beat Florida, to knock the Gators out of the way and to take some shine off of A&M's marquee win. Then, Georgia loses again to Alabama in the SEC championship game. In that scenario, I don't think the Selection Committee would put Georgia in the CFP...Definitely want A&M to fall once more for extra insurance.

BIG TEN - In addition to Ohio State sweeping through the conference, Michigan is key. They play Minnesota, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Ohio State. We want them to knock off Penn State and Wisconsin, but lose to Minnesota and Ohio State. That gives every B1G team but Ohio State at least 2 losses.

BIG 12 - Oklahoma State just doesn't have a complete team. Sure, Tulsa is a better win than anticipate, but OSU hasn't really been tested...I don't see how Oklahoma State wins 8 consecutive Big 12 games. Iowa State and Kansas State aren't really serious obstacles, because they each have a home loss to a Sun Belt team.

PAC - the PAC schedule is set up for undefeated Oregon to glide into in the PAC championship game. The hope is that the South winner limps into the CCG with two losses and then upsets the Ducks.

AAC - Cincinnati or SMU could certainly ruin our hopes. However, I foresee a daisy chain of losses, where AAC contenders all beat up each other. Cincy still plays @SMU, Memphis, Houston, @UCF, @Tulsa. SMU hosts Cincy and still plays @Tulsa and Houston. Memphis already lost to SMU, but plays @Cincy and Houston. UCF already lost to Tulsa and Memphis, but is very capable to beat @Houston and Cincy.

Best case scenario here is for Houston to run the table here on out and win the AAC championship, with their sole loss to BYU at home.

My bet is, even after BYU finishes the undefeated season, that the final CFP spot will end up with either:

- SEC #2: 9-1 Texas A&M or 10-1 Alabama (loses to Georgia in the SEC CCG)
- B1G #2: 8-1 Penn State or 8-1 Wisconsin, whose only loss is in a close game to Ohio State
- 7-0 Oregon (PAC 12 champ)

[redneckjedi]

I personally think the committee will be against having a non-champion from a conference that didn't play OOC in the playoff, especially if they already played and lost to the champion. That's why I agree, I want Georgia over Florida, and Alabama in the CCG. That and an A&M loss to LSU or Auburn should end SEC #2 hopes.

Agree totally about Michigan, but I don't think those wins are as critical as the SEC/ACC scenarios because of the schedule. I'm not sure Penn State or Wisconsin makes it in with one loss to Ohio State and no OOC games. If you can't win your round-robin division, didn't you just eliminate yourself in a de facto playoff game with the champion?

It would be pretty funny to have Utah limping into the CCG game 4-2, beat Oregon, claim their first Pac-12 title, and have that be the thing that sends us into the playoff over Oregon. Not that I think it will happen, but the tortured souls up there would be good entertainment.

[BroncoBot]

I'd love to see it but the playoff isn't going to happen. They would put 2 sec teams in long before that happens. BYU beats Boise and an undefeated regular season is going to happen.

playoff was made specifically to keep teams like BYU and BSU and UCF out. I agree. not gonna happen.

[snoscythe]

BYU only makes it into the playoff if there are fewer than four undefeated or one-loss G5 and P5 teams.

Everyone else has to have 2+ losses for that door to open.

[GAKunkel]

Not happening this season, but maybe next. We'd have to go undefeated this season, win a NY6 bowl against a strong P5 team, and go undefeated next season, which will more than likely not happen given our schedule and the fact Wilson will probably be gone after this season.