Church of the Undefeated PLAYOFF Season 10/26

[redneckjedi]

Welcome to services for The Church of the Undefeated PLAYOFF Season! Before we begin, we have some announcements:

• Penn State lost unexpectedly to Indiana in overtime, and Michigan beat Minnesota. That means if Penn State can beat Michigan, Michigan can beat Wisconsin, and Ohio State beats everybody, the B1G part of our playoff puzzle is complete.
• Notre Dame is looking a lot better than last week. Clemson probably beats them, but the second loss may be hard to find.
• Kansas State is also not looking like the team that lost to the Sun Belt. That makes it more likely they can knock off Oklahoma State, if nobody else does.
• We managed to jump Miami, despite their 19-14 win over Virginia (1-4), which says that style matters in some cases more than P5-ness of your opponent, and we have style.
• Boise is now ranked, which is fantastic for us. Army is, as well, so if we can get that game back on the schedule it will be even more helpful for us.
• All in all, our playoff odds increased by 3% to 13.3%, according to ESPN, which is pretty dang good considering our schedule. There are 8 teams with higher odds, 2 from each P5 conference not currently practicing cannibalism.
• Public enemy #1 right now is Wisconsin, with a 47.4% chance of making the playoff. This includes their chances of beating Ohio State in the B1G championship game, but also their chances of being the second B1G team in. Neither can happen.
• BYU's odds are more than double Oklahoma State's (5.9%), the last remaining unbeaten Big XII team. This most likely reflects the difficulty of their remaining schedule.
• The Pac-12 begins play in 2 weeks. They are the last big question mark. Oregon (20.5%) and USC (15.4%) are just above BYU in the playoff odds. Best scenario is that neither go.

Spiritual Thought:

But behold, the judgments of God will overtake the wicked; and it is by the wicked that the wicked are punished; for it is the wicked that stir up the hearts of the children of men unto bloodshed.

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BYU to CFB PLAYOFF
Current Odds: 13.3% (+3%) ESPN Playoff Predictor

Team (Record)        Make Playoff  Win Title
Alabama (5-0)        86.7%         30.3%
Ohio State (1-0)     74.7%         28.8%
Clemson (6-0)        74.4%         21.1%
Wisconsin (1-0)      47.4%          9.7%
Georgia (3-1)        24.0%          3.6%
Notre Dame (5-0)     22.0%          2.1%
Oregon (0-0)         20.5%          1.5%
USC (0-0)            15.4%          1.0%
BYU (6-0)            13.3%          0.5%
Oklahoma State (4-0)  5.9%          0.4%
Michigan (1-0)        4.5%          0.3%
Florida (2-1)         3.4%          0.4%
Penn State (0-1)      3.3%          0.4%
Utah (0-0)            1.1%          <.1%
Boise State (1-0)     0.7%          <.1%
Northwestern (1-0)    0.6%          <.1%
Indiana (1-0)         0.5%          <.1%

Current Rankings:
AP                         | Coaches
---------------------------+---------------------------
1.  Clemson (6-0)          | 1.  Clemson (6-0)
2.  Alabama (5-0)          | 2.  Alabama (5-0)
3.  Ohio State (1-0)       | 3.  Ohio State (1-0)
4.  Notre Dame (5-0)       | 4.  Notre Dame (5-0)
5.  Georgia (3-1)          | 5.  Georgia (3-1)
6.  Oklahoma State (4-0)   | 6.  Oklahoma State (4-0)
7.  Cincinatti (4-0)       | 7.  Cincinatti (3-0)
8.  Texas A&M (3-1)        | 8.  Texas A&M (3-1)
9.  Wisconsin (1-0)        | 9.  Florida (2-1)
10. Florida (2-1)          | 10. BYU (6-0)
11. BYU (6-0)              | 11. Wisconsin (1-0)
12. Miami (5-1)            | 12. Miami (5-1)
13. Michigan (1-0)         | 13. North Carolina (4-1)
14. Oregon (0-0)           | 14. Michigan (1-0)
15. North Carolina (4-1)   | 15. Oregon (0-0)
16. Kansas State (4-1)     | 16. Kansas State (4-1)
17. Indiana (1-0)          | 17. Penn State (0-1)
18. Penn State (0-1)       | 18. Marshall (5-0)
19. Marshall (5-0)         | 19. Kansas State (3-1)
20. Coastal Carolina (5-0) | 20. USC (0-0)
21. USC (0-0)              | 21. Coastal Carolina (5-0)
22. SMU (5-1)              | 22. Iowa State (3-2)
23. Iowa State (3-2)       | 23. SMU (5-1)
24. USC (0-0)              | 24. Oklahoma (3-2)
25. Boise State (1-0)      | 25. Army (6-1)

Easiest Playoff Path:
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. BYU

Biggest Obstacles
1. Wisconsin
2. Notre Dame
3. Georgia
3. Florida
5. Texas A&M
6. An undefeated Pac-12 team
7. Oklahoma St.
8. Cincinnati

Potential Obstacles
1. North Carolina
2. Michigan
3. Kansas State
4. Miami we managed to jump them following lackluster win against Virginia
5. Penn State likely loss @ Ohio State 10/31 eliminates them

Obstacles Eliminated
1. SMU obliterated by Cincinatti, should not be a problem
2. Iowa State second loss to Oklahoma State

Requirements:
1. BYU is undefeated
 A. 10/24 vs Texas State 
 B. 10/31 vs Western Kentucky
 C. 11/06 @  Boise
 D. 11/21 vs North Alabama
 E. 11/28 @  Army? (here's hoping!)
 F. 12/12 vs San Diego State
2. No conference gets two teams in
 A. SEC
  I.   Alabama wins out, wins SEC title game
       (vs Georgia/Florida in SEC title)
  II.  Texas A&M needs another loss (11/28 vs LSU, 12/5 @ Auburn)
   a. Any loss works, shouldn't contribute to leapfrogging
  III. Georgia/Florida (11/7) winner loses SEC title game (vs Bama?)
   a. Prefer UGA over FLA, it's doubtful anyone wants UGA vs Bama 3
 B. ACC
  I.   Clemson wins out, wins ACC title game
  II.  Notre Dame needs 2 losses (11/7 vs Clem, 11/27 @ UNC)
   a. Not many other chances for them to lose
  III. Miami needs 1 loss (11/6 @ NCST, 11/14 @ VT, 12/5 vs UNC)
   a. Prefer L @ NC State, L @ VT, W vs UNC
  IV.  North Carolina needs 1 loss (12/5 @ Miami, vs ND)
   a. Prefer L @ Miami, W vs ND
 C. B1G
  I.   Ohio State rolls everyone (10/31 @ PSU, 12/12 vs Mich),
       wins title game
  II.  Winner of Michigan vs Penn State (11/28) loses to someone else 
       besides Ohio State
   a. Penn State loss to Indiana 
  III. West division winner has 1 loss before title game
3. 2 P5 conferences get zero teams in (PAC-12, Big XII?)
 A. PAC-12 does what the PAC-12 does
  I.   Title game winner (#14/15 Oregon? #20/21 USC?) has 1+ losses
 B. Big XII continues to self-immolate
  I.   Oklahoma State needs at least one loss, preferrably two 
       (10/24 vs ISU, 10/31 vs UT, 11/7 @ KSU, 11/21 @ OU )
  II.  Kansas State needs another loss
       (11/7 vs OKST, 11/21 @ ISU, 12/5 vs UT)
   a. They already have a bad loss to Arkansas St, maybe optional
  III. Iowa State eliminated 
   a. Bad loss to Lousiana
   b. Loss to OKST 
  IV.  If West Virgina or Baylor become ranked, they need another loss
   a. UT is a good two-loss team (by 2 to TCU, OT to OU) that plays all
       5 of these teams
4. G5 gets no teams in
 A. AAC
  I.   Cincinnatti needs 1 loss
       (10/24 vs SMU, 11/7 vs Houston)
  II.  SMU eliminated 
       (10/24 vs Cincy, 10/31 vs Navy, 11/21 vs Houston)
   a) Loss to Cincinnatti
 B. C-USA
  I.   Marshall needs 1 loss
   a. Any loss would be an upset
 C. MW
  I.   Boise State/SDSU wins title game
 D. MAC
  I.   Not much concern here yet
 E. Sun Belt
  I.   Coastal Carolina needs 1 loss
  
Games to Watch (best outcome-actual outcome):
10/24
BYU vs TXST    (BYU-BYU)   
SMU vs Cincy   (SMU-Cincy) 
OKST vs ISU    (ISU-OKST)  
PSU vs ISU     (ISU-ISU)   

10/31
BYU vs WKU     (BYU)
PSU vs OSU     (OSU)
OKST vs UT     (UT)

11/6-7
BYU @ Boise    (BYU)
ND vs Clem     (Clem)
UGA vs FLA     (UGA)
NCST vs Miami  (NCST)
KSU vs OKST    (KSU)

11/14
VT vs Miami    (VT)

11/21
BYU vs UNA     (BYU)
OU vs OKST     (OU)
ISU vs KSU     (ISU)

11/27-28
UNC vs ND      (UNC)
A&M vs LSU     (LSU)
Mich vs PSU    (PSU)
UT vs ISU      (UT)

12/5
Aub vs A&M     (Aub)
Miami vs UNC   (Miami)
UT vs KSU      (UT)

12/12
BYU vs SDSU    (BYU)
OSU vs Mich    (OSU)
ACC CHAMP?     (Clem)
Big XII CHAMP? (???)

12/18-19
SEC CHAMP      (Bama)
B1G CHAMP      (OSU)
ACC CHAMP?     (Clem)
PAC 12 CHAMP   (???)

By the hand of Zach Wilson and the power of Boney Fuller, so let it be written, so let it be done.

[hawkwing]

Great post!

[EM_Puma]

Wow. I love in-depth analysis.

You hate to see someone affected by COVID, but it has been reported that Wisconsin's stalwart QB, Graham Mertz has tested positive. If this is verified by a follow-up test, per B1G rules, he's out for 21 days.

[scott715]

Oregon Ducks cancel practice after 5 test positive for COVID-19

[redneckjedi]

Oregon Ducks cancel practice after 5 test positive for COVID-19

How does the selection committee treat teams that get 7 games or less in, especially if COVID causes a late cancellation? You're undefeated, but played half as much as other undefeated teams. Does the lack of games hurt you? Too bad we have to wait until 11/28 to start to find out...

[EM_Puma]

Oregon Ducks cancel practice after 5 test positive for COVID-19

How does the selection committee treat teams that get 7 games or less in, especially if COVID causes a late cancellation? You're undefeated, but played half as much as other undefeated teams. Does the lack of games hurt you? Too bad we have to wait until 11/28 to start to find out...

Listening to main stream sports professionals (that are not PAC12 school related), it has sounded to me as though it will take a PAC12 team that totally annihilates the rest of the competition to even get a smell. I would agree with that position.

[scott715]

Late to the party, the door will close on you.

[redneckjedi]

I hope you're right. Less games = less losses to go around, and less opportunity for the Pac-12 to do what it does best - not go to the playoffs. The playoff odds for Oregon and USC do have me worried, but those aren't simulating a selection committee; they are using SP+/FPI/some other proxy metric for overall quality, and taking the top 4 teams. It's good to hear the human component will be a little more harsh than that.

That said, I still would love the Pac-12 to implode into lukewarm mediocrity.

[BroncoBot]

I hope you're right. Less games = less losses to go around, and less opportunity for the Pac-12 to do what it does best - not go to the playoffs. The playoff odds for Oregon and USC do have me worried, but those aren't simulating a selection committee; they are using SP+/FPI/some other proxy metric for overall quality, and taking the top 4 teams. It's good to hear the human component will be a little more harsh than that.

That said, I still would love the Pac-12 to implode into lukewarm mediocrity.

In some respects, the pac-12 is already there.