Church of the Undefeated PLAYOFF Season 11/9

redneckjedi · Post by **redneckjedi** » Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:22 pm

Welcome to services for The Church of the Undefeated PLAYOFF Season! Before we begin, we have some announcements:

First, Florida beat Georgia and made them look pretty bad in the process. They dumped QB1 for QB2 to see if it would help; it didn't. So Georgia has 2 losses and is out of the picture.
Second, Notre Dame beat a Lawrence-less Clemson team in double overtime. Aside from some weird officiating and too many video reviews, it was a great game between two great teams. The problem is that Clemson only fell to #4, where Notre Dame might have dropped below us with a loss. And, assuming these two teams make it to the ACC title game, a Clemson win likely means both teams go to the playoff, which would not be good. So we're redoing the ACC plan entirely in favor of Notre Dame.
We didn't get any help from Houston (L @ Cincy), NC State (L vs Miami), or South Carolina (L vs Texas A&M).
We did move up above Georgia, and increase our odds (22.8%, +8.9%) of making the playoff - though probably not as much as if Clemson had won convincingly.
We've got 3 more shots for an upset at Texas A&M, 4 more at Cincy plus the AAC championship game. Thoughts and prayers to make them count.
Wisconsin continues to drop in the rankings without losing due to COVID-19 cancellations, but not in the playoff odds. Hopefully they can play soon (and lose), but it's also worth noting that voters don't give you a pass for a cancellation, especially with the two cancellations last week in the Pac-12.
On College Gameday, Kirk Herbstreit said he would take BYU in the playoffs over Oregon and Cincy. Hopefully the playoff selection committee will have similar thoughts. First rankings come out 11/24. If you want to start your ministering visits early, here is the committee: https://collegefootballplayoff.com/spor ... ittee.aspx
Assuming that the Pac-12 started too late or has a 1-loss champion, all we need is: 1) ND upsets Clemson in the ACC title game, 2) Bama beats Florida in the SEC title game, 3) OSU wins B1G title game, 4) Texas A&M gets upset (12/5 Auburn?), 5) Cincy gets upset (5 more games). That should push us into the top 4 of the playoff odds and keep those behind us from squeezing ahead. 2 status quo outcomes, 3 upsets. That's it!

Spiritual Thought:

Isaiah 8:12 wrote:Say ye not, A confederacy, to all them to whom this people shall say, A confederacy; neither fear ye their fear, nor be afraid.

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BYU to CFB PLAYOFF
Current Odds: 22.8% (+8.9%) ESPN Playoff Predictor

Team (Record)        Make Playoff  Win Title
Alabama (6-0)        90.5%         39.0%
Ohio State (3-0)     73.6%         27.2%
Notre Dame (7-0)     46.4%          5.7%
Clemson (7-1)        45.0%         10.6%
Wisconsin (1-0)      40.6%          8.6%
Oregon (1-0)         27.3%          2.6%
BYU (8-0)            22.8%          1.4%
Florida (4-1)        18.2%          2.7%
Cincinnati (6-0)     10.3%          0.5%
USC (1-0)             6.9%          0.3%
Texas A&M (5-1)       5.9%          0.4%
Georgia (4-2)         3.3%          0.4%
Indiana (3-0)         3.3%          0.2%
Northwestern (3-0)    2.2%          <.1%
Utah (0-0)            1.3%          <.1%
Oklahoma State (5-1)  1.0%          <.1%
Oklahoma (5-2)        0.6%          <.1%

Current Rankings:
AP                         | Coaches
---------------------------+---------------------------
1.  Alabama (6-0)          | 1.  Alabama (6-0)
2.  Notre Dame (7-0)       | 2.  Notre Dame (7-0)
3.  Ohio State (3-0)       | 3.  Ohio State (3-0)
4.  Clemson (7-1)          | 4.  Clemson (7-1)
5.  Texas A&M (5-1)        | 5.  Florida (4-1)
6.  Florida (4-1)          | 6.  Texas A&M (5-1)
7.  Cincinnati (6-0)       | 7.  Cincinnati (6-0)
8.  BYU (8-0)              | 8.  BYU (8-0)
9.  Miami (6-1)            | 9.  Miami (6-1)
10. Indiana (3-0)          | 10. Indiana (3-0)
11. Oregon (1-0)           | 11. Georgia (4-2)
12. Georgia (4-2)          | 12. Oregon (1-0)
13. Wisconsin (1-0)        | 13. Oklahoma State (5-1)
14. Oklahoma State (5-1)   | 14. Wisconsin (1-0)
15. Coastal Carolina (7-0) | 15. Marshall (6-0)
16. Marshall (6-0)         | 16. Iowa State (4-2)
17. Iowa State (7-2)       | 17. Coastal Carolina (7-0)
18. Oklahoma (5-2)         | 18. Oklahoma (5-2)
19. SMU (7-1)              | 19. SMU (7-1)
20. USC (1-0)              | 20. USC (1-0)
21. Texas (5-2)            | 21. Auburn (4-2)
22. Liberty (7-0)          | 22. Liberty (7-0)
23. Northwestern (3-0)     | 23. Northwestern (3-0)
24. Auburn (4-2)           | 24. Texas (5-2)
25. Louisiana (6-1)        | 25. Army (6-1)

Easiest Playoff Path:
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Notre Dame
4. BYU

Biggest Obstacles
1. Clemson
2. Texas A&M
3. Florida
4. Oregon
5. Wisconsin
6. Cincinnati

Potential Obstacles
1. Miami
2. Indiana
3. Oklahoma State most likely already eliminated, but another loss (OU?)
   finishes them off

Obstacles Eliminated
1. SMU obliterated by Cincinatti, should not be a problem
2. Iowa State second loss to Oklahoma State
3. North Carolina second loss to Virginia
4. Kansas State second loss to West Virginia
5. Penn State second loss to Ohio State
6. Georgia second loss to Florida
7. Michigan second loss to Indiana

Requirements:
1. BYU is undefeated
 A. 10/24 vs Texas State 
 B. 10/31 vs Western Kentucky 
 C. 11/06 @  Boise 
 D. 11/21 vs North Alabama
 E. 11/28 @  Army? (here's hoping!)
 F. 12/12 vs San Diego State
2. No conference gets two teams in
 A. SEC
  I.   Alabama wins out, wins SEC title game
       (vs Florida in SEC title)
  II.  Texas A&M needs another loss (11/28 vs LSU, 12/5 @ Auburn)
   a. Any loss works, shouldn't contribute to leapfrogging
  III. Georgia/Florida (11/7) winner loses SEC title game (vs Bama?)
   a. Florida wins, will likely play in title game
 B. ACC
  I.   Notre Dame wins out, wins ACC title game
  II.  Clemson needs 2 losses (11/21 @ FSU, 11/28 vs PITT, 12/5 @ VT,
       ACC CHAMP?)
   a. Not many other chances for them to lose
   b. ND-Clem II in the ACC title game is best chance to eliminate Clem
  III. Miami needs 1 more loss (11/6 @ NCST, 11/14 @ VT, 12/5 vs UNC)
  IV.  North Carolina eliminated 
   a. Loss @ FSU
   b. Second loss @ UVA
 C. B1G
  I.   Ohio State rolls everyone (10/31 @ PSU , 12/12 vs Mich),
       wins title game
  II.  Winner of Michigan vs Penn State (11/28) loses to someone else 
       besides Ohio State
   a. Penn State loss to Indiana 
   b. Michigan loss to Michigan State 
  III. Indiana loses to someone (11/7 vs Mich, 12/5 @ Wisc) besides OSU
  IV. West division winner has 1 loss before title game
3. 2 P5 conferences get zero teams in (PAC-12, Big XII?)
 A. PAC-12 does what the PAC-12 does
  I.   Title game winner (#12 Oregon? #20 USC?) has 1+ losses
 B. Big XII continues to self-immolate 
  I.   Oklahoma State needs at least one loss, preferrably two 
       (10/24 vs ISU, 10/31 vs UT , 11/7 @ KSU, 11/21 @ OU )
   a. Loss to UT 
  II.  Kansas State eliminated 
   a. Bad loss to Arkansas St.
   b. Loss to West Virginia
  III. Iowa State eliminated 
   a. Bad loss to Lousiana
   b. Loss to OKST
4. G5 gets no teams in
 A. AAC
  I.   Cincinnatti needs 1 loss
       (10/24 vs SMU, 11/7 vs HOU, 11/13 vs ECU, 11/21 @ UCF, 11/28 @ TEM)
  II.  SMU eliminated 
   a) Loss to Cincinnatti
 B. C-USA
  I.   Marshall needs 1 loss
   a. Any loss would be an upset
 C. MW
  I.   Boise State/SDSU wins title game
 D. MAC
  I.   Not much concern here yet
 E. Sun Belt
  I.   Coastal Carolina needs 1 loss
  
Games to Watch (best outcome-actual outcome):
10/24
BYU vs TXST    (BYU-BYU)    
SMU vs Cincy   (SMU-Cincy)  
OKST vs ISU    (ISU-OKST)   
PSU vs ISU     (ISU-ISU)    

10/31
BYU vs WKU     (BYU-BYU)    
PSU vs OSU     (OSU-OSU)    
OKST vs UT     (UT-UT)      
MICH vs MSU    (MSU-MSU)    
UVA vs UNC     (UVA-UVA)    

11/6-7
BYU @ Boise    (BYU-BYU)    
ND vs Clem     (Clem-ND)    
UGA vs FLA     (UGA-FLA)    
NCST vs Miami  (NCST-Miami) 
Cincy vs HOU   (HOU-Cincy)  
USC vs ASU     (ASU-USC)    
ORE vs STAN    (STAN-ORE)   
Ariz vs     (ARIZ-None)  

11/14
Cincy vs ECU   (ECU)
TENN vs A&M    (TENN)
WSU vs ORE     (WSU)
Mich vs WISC   (Mich)
MSU vs IU      (MSU)
VT vs Miami    (VT)
Ariz vs USC    (Ariz)

11/21
BYU vs UNA     (BYU)
OU vs OKST     (OU)
UCF vs Cincy   (UCF)

11/27-28
UNC vs ND      (UNC)
A&M vs LSU     (LSU)
Mich vs PSU    (PSU)

12/5
Aub vs A&M     (Aub)
Miami vs UNC   (UNC)
Tulsa vs Cincy (Tulsa)
WISC vs IU     (IU)

12/12
BYU vs SDSU    (BYU)
OSU vs Mich    (OSU)

12/18-19
SEC CHAMP      (Bama)
B1G CHAMP      (OSU)
ACC CHAMP      (ND)
PAC 12 CHAMP   (Not Oregon)
Big XII CHAMP  (Not Oklahoma)
AAC CHAMP      (Not Cincy)

By the hand of Zach Wilson and the power of Boney Fuller, so let it be written, so let it be done.

YNot · Post by **YNot** » Mon Nov 09, 2020 6:20 pm

I can't believe we're actually having this discussion, but Texas A&M losing @ Auburn and Notre Dame losing @ Boston College or @ North Carolina and Cincinnati losing to one of @UCF, @Tulsa, or @Temple, while upsets, wouldn't really be that surprising.

We would then just need Alabama, Ohio State, and Clemson (with Trevor Lawrence) to hold serve...and pave the CFP path for 10-0 BYU (or 11-0 or 12-0?). An upset in the SEC, B1G, or ACC championship games could wreak CFP rankings havoc.

Also, Miami loss @ Virginia Tech or to North Carolina wouldn't be too surprising, given their close wins over Virginia and NC State...but sure would give BYU some breathing room.

Also, it wouldn't hurt to see some ugly football played in the PAC and B1G to keep Oregon, Wisconsin and Indiana off our backs.

Does Texas A&M shutting down football for a week or two because of COVID hurt their ranking?

redneckjedi · Post by **redneckjedi** » Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:13 am

I think Texas A&M probably doesn't get hurt like Wisconsin has been. They've played a lot more games and are more of a known quantity than Wisconsin, and have looked pretty good in games after the Alabama loss, and the Florida win looks even better for them after last week. If they have to cancel the Tennessee game, probably not a problem for them. If they miss out on several games, especially Auburn? That probably does start to hurt them.

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