Church of the Undefeated PLAYOFF Season 11/16

[redneckjedi]

Welcome to services for The Church of the Undefeated PLAYOFF Season! Before we begin, we have some announcements:

• BYU had a bye week. Unfortunately, so did getting helpful upsets. Still, our playoff chances increased to 25.1%. That's actually pretty fantastic, and I'll take it.
• COVID-19 "postponed" or canceled a number of games in the top 25, which made the week even more lame.
• Miami escaped Virginia Tech (who, it should be noted, lost to Liberty) with a one-point win. Lame.
• BC looked like it wanted to hang with Notre Dame....and then didn't, losing 45-31. Lame.
• USC once again came from behind to win against Arizona. They are a lucky 2-0, when they could easily be 0-2. Lame.
• Oregon came from behind to beat Washington State, dropping 22 points in the 4th to get to 43 and make it look way better than it was. Kinda like BYU against Houston....huh. We're currently being projected to play them in the Fiesta Bowl.
• Wisconsin played like a team that really, really, really wanted to be playing some football, and destroyed Michigan 49-11. Lame.
• Not to be outdone, Indiana destroyed Michigan State 24-0. Thoughts and prayers to the entire state of Michigan for so very many reasons. Also, lame.
• This week should be better. Maybe. Ohio State vs. Indiana, UCF vs. Cincy, Northwestern vs. Wisconsin, and, if you believe in miracles, Utah vs. USC.

Spiritual Thought:

Run it up, Herman! Leave no doubt!

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BYU to CFB PLAYOFF
Current Odds: 25.1% (+2.3%) ESPN Playoff Predictor

Team (Record)        Make Playoff  Win Title
Alabama (6-0)        88.8%         37.7%
Ohio State (3-0)     61.4%         21.2%
Wisconsin (2-0)      54.9%         17.5%
Notre Dame (8-0)     48.7%          5.4%
Clemson (7-1)        42.8%          9.6%
Oregon (2-0)         29.8%          2.7%
BYU (8-0)            25.1%          1.5%
Florida (5-1)        17.9%          2.7%
Cincinnati (7-0)     12.0%          0.7%
Texas A&M (5-1)       6.7%          0.5%
USC (2-0)             4.8%          0.2%
Northwestern (4-0)    3.3%          0.2%
Indiana (4-0)         1.6%          0.1%
Oklahoma State (5-1)  0.6%          <.1%
Georgia (4-2)         0.5%          <.1%
Utah (0-0)            0.3%          <.1%

Current Rankings:
AP                         | Coaches
---------------------------+---------------------------
1.  Alabama (6-0)          | 1.  Alabama (6-0)
2.  Notre Dame (8-0)       | 2.  Notre Dame (8-0)
3.  Ohio State (3-0)       | 3.  Ohio State (3-0)
4.  Clemson (7-1)          | 4.  Clemson (7-1)
5.  Texas A&M (5-1)        | 5.  Florida (5-1)
6.  Florida (5-1)          | 6.  Texas A&M (5-1)
7.  Cincinnati (7-0)       | 7.  Cincinnati (7-0)
8.  BYU (8-0)              | 8.  BYU (8-0)
9.  Indiana (4-0)          | 9.  Miami (7-1)
10. Wisconsin (2-0)        | 10. Indiana (4-0)
11. Oregon (2-0)           | 11. Georgia (4-2)
12. Miami (7-1)            | 12. Wisconsin (2-0)
13. Georgia (4-2)          | 13. Oregon (2-0)
14. Oklahoma State (5-1)   | 14. Oklahoma State (5-1)
15. Coastal Carolina (7-0) | 15. Marshall (7-0)
15. Marshall (7-0)         | 16. Iowa State (5-2)
17. Iowa State (5-2)       | 17. Oklahoma (5-2)
18. Oklahoma (5-2)         | 18. Coastal Carolina (7-0)
19. Northwestern (4-0)     | 19. USC (2-0)
20. USC (2-0)              | 20. Northwestern (4-0)
21. Liberty (8-0)          | 21. Auburn (4-2)
22. Texas (5-2)            | 22. Liberty (8-0)
23. Auburn (4-2)           | 23. Texas (5-2)
24. Louisiana (7-1)        | 24. North Carolina (6-2)
25. Tulsa (4-1)            | 25. Louisiana (7-1)

Easiest Playoff Path:
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Notre Dame
4. BYU

Biggest Obstacles
1. Clemson
2. Texas A&M
3. Florida
4. Wisconsin
5. Oregon
6. Cincinnati

Potential Obstacles
1. Miami
2. Indiana
3. Oklahoma State most likely already eliminated, but another loss (OU?)
   finishes them off

Obstacles Eliminated
1. SMU obliterated by Cincinatti, should not be a problem
2. Iowa State second loss to Oklahoma State
3. North Carolina second loss to Virginia
4. Kansas State second loss to West Virginia
5. Penn State second loss to Ohio State
6. Georgia second loss to Florida
7. Michigan second loss to Indiana

Requirements:
1. BYU is undefeated
 A. 10/24 vs Texas State 
 B. 10/31 vs Western Kentucky 
 C. 11/06 @  Boise 
 D. 11/21 vs North Alabama
 E. 12/12 vs San Diego State
2. No conference gets two teams in
 A. SEC
  I.   Alabama wins out, wins SEC title game
       (vs Florida in SEC title)
  II.  Texas A&M needs another loss (11/28 vs LSU, 12/5 @ Auburn)
   a. Any loss works, shouldn't contribute to leapfrogging
  III. Georgia/Florida (11/7) winner loses SEC title game (vs Bama?)
   a. Florida wins, will likely play in title game
 B. ACC
  I.   Notre Dame wins out, wins ACC title game
  II.  Clemson needs 2 losses (11/21 @ FSU, 11/28 vs PITT, 12/5 @ VT,
       ACC CHAMP?)
   a. Not many other chances for them to lose
   b. ND-Clem II in the ACC title game is best chance to eliminate Clem
  III. Miami needs 1 more loss (11/6 @ NCST, 11/14 @ VT, 12/5 vs UNC)
  IV.  North Carolina eliminated 
   a. Loss @ FSU
   b. Second loss @ UVA
 C. B1G
  I.   Ohio State rolls everyone (10/31 @ PSU , 11/21 vs IU),
       wins title game
  II.  Winner of Michigan vs Penn State (11/28) loses to someone else 
       besides Ohio State
   a. Penn State loss to Indiana 
   b. Michigan loss to Michigan State 
  III. Indiana loses to someone (11/7 vs Mich, 12/5 @ Wisc) besides OSU
  IV. West division winner has 1 loss before title game
3. 2 P5 conferences get zero teams in (PAC-12, Big XII?)
 A. PAC-12 does what the PAC-12 does
  I.   Title game winner (#12 Oregon? #20 USC?) has 1+ losses
 B. Big XII continues to self-immolate 
  I.   Oklahoma State needs at least one loss, preferrably two 
       (10/24 vs ISU, 10/31 vs UT , 11/7 @ KSU, 11/21 @ OU )
   a. Loss to UT 
  II.  Kansas State eliminated 
   a. Bad loss to Arkansas St.
   b. Loss to West Virginia
  III. Iowa State eliminated 
   a. Bad loss to Lousiana
   b. Loss to OKST
4. G5 gets no teams in
 A. AAC
  I.   Cincinnatti needs 1 loss
       (10/24 vs SMU, 11/7 vs HOU, 11/13 vs ECU, 11/21 @ UCF, 11/28 @ TEM)
  II.  SMU eliminated 
   a) Loss to Cincinnatti
 B. C-USA
  I.   Marshall needs 1 loss
   a. Any loss would be an upset
 C. MW
  I.   Boise State/SDSU wins title game
 D. MAC
  I.   Not much concern here yet
 E. Sun Belt
  I.   Coastal Carolina needs 1 loss
  
Games to Watch (best outcome-actual outcome):
10/24
BYU vs TXST    (BYU-BYU)    
SMU vs Cincy   (SMU-Cincy)  
OKST vs ISU    (ISU-OKST)   
PSU vs ISU     (ISU-ISU)    

10/31
BYU vs WKU     (BYU-BYU)    
PSU vs OSU     (OSU-OSU)    
OKST vs UT     (UT-UT)      
MICH vs MSU    (MSU-MSU)    
UVA vs UNC     (UVA-UVA)    

11/6-7
BYU @ Boise    (BYU-BYU)    
ND vs Clem     (Clem-ND)    
UGA vs FLA     (UGA-FLA)    
NCST vs Miami  (NCST-Miami) 
Cincy vs HOU   (HOU-Cincy)  
USC vs ASU     (ASU-USC)    
ORE vs STAN    (STAN-ORE)   
Ariz vs     (ARIZ-None)  

11/14
Cincy vs ECU   (ECU-Cincy)  
TENN vs A&M    (TENN-None)  
WSU vs ORE     (WSU-ORE)    
Mich vs WISC   (Mich-WISC)  
MSU vs IU      (MSU-IU)     
VT vs Miami    (VT-Miami)   
Ariz vs USC    (Ariz-USC)   

11/21
BYU vs UNA     (BYU)
FSU vs Clem    (FSU)
OSU vs IU      (OSU)
OU vs OKST     (OU)
UCF vs Cincy   (UCF)
NW vs WISC     (NW)
ORE vs UCLA    (UCLA)
 vs USC     (  )
A&M vs MISS    (MISS-None)  

11/27-28
UNC vs ND      (UNC)
A&M vs LSU     (LSU)
Mich vs PSU    (PSU)

12/5
Aub vs A&M     (Aub)
Miami vs UNC   (UNC)
Tulsa vs Cincy (Tulsa)
WISC vs IU     (IU)

12/12
BYU vs SDSU    (BYU)
OSU vs Mich    (OSU)

12/18-19
SEC CHAMP      (Bama)
B1G CHAMP      (OSU)
ACC CHAMP      (ND)
PAC 12 CHAMP   (Not Oregon)
Big XII CHAMP  (Not Oklahoma)
AAC CHAMP      (Not Cincy)

By the hand of Zach Wilson and the power of Boney Fuller, so let it be written, so let it be done.