Church of the Undefeated PLAYOFF Season 12/3

[redneckjedi]

Welcome to services for The Church of the Undefeated PLAYOFF Season! Some might say we ducked last week, but we were waiting to see if the CFP committee could guarantee objectivity. Spoiler: they cannot. Some announcements:

• SPARTA!!! A big #GiveThanks to Michigan State, who took out Northwestern, who took out Indiana. You've showed us the B1G 10 is what we all knew and hoped it would be.
• BEAVERS!!! Not as cool a rallying cry, but a big #GiveThanks to Oregon State, who took out Oregon. You've showed us the Pac-12 is what we all knew and hoped it would be. Sports media personalities everywhere believe this single game knocked the entire Pac-12 out of the CFP. Good riddance.
• The biggest #GiveThanks of all goes to ESPN GameDay, Coastal Carolina, Tom Holmoe, Twitter eyeballs, and Liberty's COVID-19 issues, for giving us a ranked opponent to play this weekend! Thoughts and prayers to all the behind the scenes logistics people to get all the equipment to the right place and all the game prep done.
• The Coastal Carolina game is a win-win for us. If we win, we should have some kind of statement win to propel us upwards in the rankings. If we lose by, oh, let's say 17, to a Sun Belt team, that should be good enough for 9th. Right, Iowa State? RIGHT?!?
• To further back up the previous point, North Carolina lost to Notre Dame 31-17, and rose 2 spots in the CFP ranking to 17.
• The path to the playoff is clear now: teams 4-12 need to lose, or we need to leapfrog them with a statement win at Coastal Carolina. Apparently two losses isn't enough to disqualify certain teams who won't even win their division. Right, Georgia?
• One additional wrinkle: Ohio State may not play enough games to qualify for the B1G 10 Championship. They have played 4, need to play 6, and have 2 remaining on the schedule, @ Michigan State, vs Michigan. If either cancel, Indiana would take their place in the championship. Currently, the CFP committee doesn't seem to care that Ohio State has only played 4 games, and continues to place them in the top 4 because it's clearly their birthright. Does that change if they finish only 4-0? Only 5-0? Lack of a championship game cost the Big XII a playoff berth in 2014: TCU was at #3, but dropped to #6 after sitting idle on championship weekend.

Spiritual Thoughts:

And I was led by the Spirit, not knowing beforehand the things which I should do.

Obviously, if you do what's right on and off the field, I think the Lord steps in and plays a part in it. Magic happens.

Testimony Meeting:

I know things looked bad last week. They still don't look great. But in this year, of all years, anything can happen. Is Indiana ahead of us still with one loss? Yes, but with an injured starting QB, I know Wisconsin can beat them! I know Miami can lose to North Carolina. I know beating Coastal Carolina will get us ahead of Iowa State, who lost by 17 to the team whose only loss is to Coastal Carolina. I know Texas A&M can lose to Auburn! I know Alabama will beat Florida! I know Tulsa can beat Cincinnati! I know Notre Dame can find a way to beat Clemson! And I know Georgia is mediocre at best with losses to both SEC division champions, and our win at Coastal Carolina will be enough to finally help everyone see that. I know West Virginia and Tennessee still have some magic in them.

Let's say we beat Coastal, A&M loses to Auburn, and Indiana loses to Wisconsin. Iowa State jumped 4 spots after beating then-#17 Texas by a field goal, so if we pound #18, something similar might happen for us. We would jump Indiana, who falls due to a loss. I would hope to jump Oklahoma, Miami, Iowa State, and maybe even Georgia, even if they win, and Texas A&M with a loss. That makes the top 7 1. Alabama, 2. Notre Dame, 3. Clemson, 4. Ohio State, 5. Florida, 6. Cincinnati, 7. BYU. That's striking distance! Then next week, Tulsa drops Cincinnati, we move up to 6. On 12/19, Bama drops Florida and Notre Dame drops Clemson. Now, normally losing to Notre Dame makes you rise 2 spots, but that would put them at #1, so, we'll say sanity prevails and we jump both teams. That's #4. That's all we need! Other upsets would be nice, but it all comes down to Texas A&M and Cincinnati being upset. Any magic from WVU or Tennessee is gravy. We can do this. I know we can do this!

...What's that? I'm going long? Okay. LET'S DO THIS!!! MAGIC IS HAPPENING!!! RA, RA, RA-RA-RA, GOOOOOO COUGARS!!!

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BYU to CFB PLAYOFF
Current Odds: 23.1% (-11%, +9%) ESPN Playoff Predictor

Team (Record)         Make Playoff  Win Title
Alabama (8-0)         95.9%         53.7%
Ohio State (4-0)      78.1%         19.3%
Notre Dame (9-0)      68.1%          8.2%
Clemson (8-1)         50.7%         11.7%
Cincinnati (8-0)      34.9%          1.8%
BYU (9-0)             23.1%          1.2%
Texas A&M (6-1)       13.9%          0.8%
USC (3-0)             13.2%          0.6%
Florida (7-1)         12.8%          1.7%
Wisconsin (2-1)        3.7%          0.7%
Northwestern (5-1)     1.7%          <.1%
Washington (3-0)       1.2%          <.1%
Indiana (5-1)          0.7%          <.1%
Iowa State (7-2)       0.4%          <.1%
Miami (7-1)            0.4%          <.1%
Oklahoma (6-2)         0.4%          <.1%
Georgia (6-2)          0.3%          <.1%
Coastal Carolina (9-0) 0.3%          <.1%
Oregon (3-1)           0.1%          <.1%

Current Rankings:
AP                         | Coaches                    | CFP
---------------------------+----------------------------+----------------------
1.  Alabama (8-0)          | 1.  Alabama (8-0)          | 1. Alabama (8-0)
2.  Notre Dame (9-0)       | 2.  Notre Dame (9-0)       | 2. Notre Dame (9-0)
3.  Ohio State (4-0)       | 3.  Clemson (8-1)          | 3. Ohio State (4-0)
4.  Clemson (8-1)          | 4.  Ohio State (4-0)       | 4. Clemson (8-1)
5.  Texas A&M (6-1)        | 5.  Florida (7-1)          | 5. Texas A&M (6-1)
6.  Florida (7-1)          | 6.  Texas A&M (6-1)        | 6. Florida (7-1)
7.  Cincinnati (8-0)       | 7.  Cincinnati (8-0)       | 7. Cincinnati (8-0)
8.  BYU (9-0)              | 8.  BYU (9-0)              | 8. Georgia (6-2)
9.  Miami (7-1)            | 9.  Miami (7-1)            | 9. Iowa State (7-2)
10. Indiana (5-1)          | 10. Georgia (6-2)          | 10. Miami (7-1)
11. Georgia (6-2)          | 11. Indiana (5-1)          | 11. Oklahoma (6-2)
12. Iowa State (7-2)       | 12. Iowa State (7-2)       | 12. Indiana (5-1)
13. Oklahoma (6-2)         | 13. Oklahoma (6-2)         | 13. BYU (9-0)
14. Coastal Carolina (9-0) | 14. Coastal Carolina (9-0) | 14. Northwestern (9-0)
15. Marshall (7-0)         | 15. Marshall (7-0)         | 15. Oklahoma State (6-2)
16. Northwestern (5-1)     | 16. USC (3-0)              | 16. Wisconsin (2-1)
17. USC (3-0)              | 17. Northwestern (5-1)     | 17. North Carolina (6-3)
18. Wisconsin (2-1)        | 18. Oklahoma State (6-2)   | 18. Coastal Carolina (9-0)
19. Oklahoma State (6-2)   | 19. Wisconsin (2-1)        | 19. Iowa (4-2)
20. Louisiana (8-1)        | 20. Oregon (3-1)           | 20. USC (3-0)
21. Oregon (3-1)           | 21. Louisiana (8-1)        | 21. Marshall (7-0)
22. Tulsa (5-1)            | 22. Tulsa (5-1)            | 22. Washington (3-0)
23. Washington (3-0)       | 23. Washington (3-0)       | 23. Oregon (3-1)
24. Iowa (4-2)             | 24. Iowa (4-2)             | 24. Tulsa (5-1)
25. Liberty (9-1)          | 25. Liberty (9-1)          | 25. Louisiana (8-1)

Easiest Playoff Path:
1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. Ohio State
4. BYU

Biggest Obstacles
0. Barta
1. Clemson
2. Texas A&M
3. Florida
4. Cincinnati
5. Georgia?
6. Iowa State?!
7. Miami
8. Oklahoma
9. Indiana

Obstacles Eliminated
1. SMU obliterated by Cincinnati, should not be a problem
2. Iowa State second loss to Oklahoma State
3. North Carolina second loss to Virginia
4. Kansas State second loss to West Virginia
5. Penn State second loss to Ohio State
6. Georgia second loss to Florida
7. Michigan second loss to Indiana
8. Wisconsin lost to COVID, Northwestern
9. Oregon lost to Oregon State

Requirements:
1. BYU is undefeated
 A. 10/24 vs Texas State 
 B. 10/31 vs Western Kentucky 
 C. 11/06 @  Boise 
 D. 11/21 vs North Alabama 
 E. 12/5 @ Coastal Carolina
 F. 12/12 vs San Diego State
2. Everyone ranked 4-12 loses
 A. Clemson @ Virginia Tech 12/5, ACC Champ vs. Notre Dame 12/19
 B. Texas A&M @ Auburn 12/5, @ Tennessee 12/12
 C. Florida @ Tennessee 12/5, vs LSU 12/12, SEC Champ 12/19
 D. Cincinnati @ Tulsa 12/12, AAC Champ vs. Tulsa 12/19
 E. Georgia vs. Vanderbilt 12/5
 F. Iowa State vs. West Virginia 12/5
 G. Miami @ Duke 12/5, vs UNC 12/12, vs Georgia Tech 12/19
 H. Oklahoma vs. Baylor 12/5, @ West Virginia 12/12
 I. Indiana @ Wisconsin 12/5, vs. Purdue 12/12

By the hand of Zach Wilson and the power of Boney Fuller, so let it be written, so let it be done.