At-Large Talk-Friday

[EM_Puma]

Earlier this week we identified basically 23 teams vying for those 15 slots (in alphabetical order). Their activity this week is noted:

Arizona (Beat UCLA 66-58, now plays OR State)
BYU (finished games)
California (Beat Stanford 77-71, now plays Colorado)
Connecticut (Beat WVU 71-67, lost to Syracuse 55-58)—they’re in
CSU (Beat TCU 81-60, play SDSU)—I believe they are in
Dayton
Drexel (finished games)
Iona (finished games)
Miami (Beat GA Tech 54-36, now plays FL St. Beat FSU and they’re a lock)
Miss. State (Lost to Georgia 71-61)
NC State (Beat Boston College 78-57, plays UVA, win game, they’re in)
Northwestern (Lost to Minnesota 68-75)—they are out
Oregon (Lost to Colorado 63-62)
S. Florida (beat Villanova 56-47, lost to Notre Dame 53-57 in OT)—they’re in
Seton Hall (lost to Louisville 61-55)
So. Mississippi (Beat E. Carolina 81-78 in OT)—they’re in
St. Joseph's
St. Louis
Tennessee
Texas (Beat Iowa St 71-65, now play Missouri)—they’re in
Washington (Lost to OR State 84-86)
Xavier
WVU (lost to S. Connecticut 67-71)

Played their way in already:
1) Connecticut (Brennan has them now as a lock)
2) CSU (Brennan believes they are in)
3) South Florida (Brennan doesn't believe this, I do)
4) Southern Mississippi (Brennan says things look good)
5) Texas (Brennan isn't impressed, but says other losses of Bubble teams makes them look in)

Played their way out already:
1) Mississippi State (Brennan agrees)
2) Northwestern (Brennan agrees)
3) Oregon (Brennan agrees)
4) Seton Hall (Brennan agrees)

Very slippery ground (should be out, but probably are not):
1) Washington (Brennan believes they are out)
2) WVU (Brennan still likes their chances)

Who’s left to now fill last 10 slots:
1) Arizona
2) BYU
3) California
4) Dayton
5) Drexel
6) Iona
7) Miami
8 NC State
9) St. Joseph
10) St. Louis
11) Tennessee
12) Xavier

So basically we are down to 10 slots with 14 teams, 2 that should be out, but we’ll have to see. Hopefully there are no tournament upsets tomorrow.

Big games today
Miami vs FSU—Miami wins and they lock up a slot
NC State vs Virginia—NCS wins and they lock up a slot
St. Louis vs La Salle
Tennessee vs Ole Miss
Arizona vs Oregon St
Dayton vs Xavier—the winner locks up a slot, the loser is out
Colorado vs California—the winner locks up a slot

[EM_Puma]

Helped BYU a little:
VA Tech beat Clemson 68-63
Nevada beat SJST 54-44

Hurt BYU a little/lot
Oregon lost to Ore St 63-62
USU lost to LA Tech 72-70

[EM_Puma]

Lunardi still has BYU in.

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SINCE THE LAST UPDATE

•Texas moves above “Last Four In” (No. 47 overall) with its victory over Iowa State.
•Mississippi State drops to “Last Four In” with its loss to Georgia.
•South Florida stays in the field (No. 46 overall) despite its loss to Notre Dame.
•Oregon moves from "First Four Out" to the last spot on "Next Four Out."
LAST FOUR IN

Washington
Mississippi State
Drexel
Seton Hall

FIRST FOUR OUT

Tennessee
Northwestern
NC State
Miami (Fla.)

NEXT FOUR OUT

Iona
Arizona
Saint Joseph's
Oregon

Also considered: Dayton, Marshall, Ole Miss

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (6)
Big 12 (6)
SEC (5)
ACC (4)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
West Coast (3)
Colonial (2)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)
Pac-12 (2)

[EM_Puma]

U Mass just upset #24 Temple. Lunardi believes that only 3 teams will come out of the Atlantic10. That gave St. Louis, Xavier, Dayton, or St. Joseph a greater ability to snag the auto-bid. With Temple a certain lock, then besides whichever of those four win the autobid (or U Mass maybe), only one other will make it. I think Xavier is the most vulnerable and needs a deep run.

[soccerjoe]

NC State just beat Virginia, so they're most likely in...

[EM_Puma]

NC State just beat Virginia, so they're most likely in...

I'd say they moved to a lock.

[EM_Puma]

Welcome to the NIT St. Joseph. St. Bonaventure just sent them packing 70-68. That was good.

[EM_Puma]

Marshall upsets S. Mississippi 72-63, muddying the water just a stir. S. Miss was rumored to be sitting pretty well for an At-Large bid, but they struggled and beat E. Carolina in OT, and now were beated by 9 points on a neutral floor. Their worry meter just went up. If the bubble stays soft, and Marshall doesn't go on and take the autobid, then they could be okay.

[profgeek]

Here's what SI's Glockner said about an hour ago:

"The Cougars, amazingly, may benefit from this week's carnage. Once left for bracket dead, the Cougars may scrape into the dance despite a fairly unimpressive profile."

He has BYU as a 12 seed playing Vanderbilt in Albuquerque.