Path to the NY6

[redneckjedi]

According to my calculations, this is our best shot:

• Alabama beats Georgia in a close game for the SEC Championship; Georgia does not drop out of the top 4.
• Oklahoma State embarrasses Baylor for the Big XII Championship, and the 3rd loss is enough to drop them below us.
• No other shenanigans; everyone else stays right where they are.

Assuming Utah again beats Oregon and Pitt beats Wake Forest, the resulting rankings look something like this:

1. Alabama
2. Michigan
3. Cincy
4. Georgia
5. Oklahoma St.
6. Notre Dame
7. Ohio State
8. Ole Miss
9. Michigan St.
10. BYU
11. Baylor
12. Utah
13. Oklahoma

And the bowls would be:
Orange: Alabama vs Georgia II
Cotton: Michigan vs Cincinnati
Sugar: Oklahoma St. vs Ole Miss
Rose: Utah vs Ohio St.
Fiesta: ND vs BYU
Peach: Pitt vs Michigan State

Reasoning: If Alabama drops out of the top 4, they take the SEC spot in the Sugar Bowl, and Ole Miss becomes an at-large. Assuming Oklahoma St. is in the playoff in such a scenario, Baylor takes the Big 12 spot in the Sugar Bowl. The at-large teams are Notre Dame, Ole Miss, and Michigan St, with BYU as the first out. So, if Alabama is not in the playoff, the only other scenario that works for us would be Notre Dame getting into the playoff over Oklahoma St, which is unlikely given that Oklahoma St. is already ranked ahead of them and Notre Dame has no more games. If Baylor wins the Big 12, there's no way Oklahoma St drops below us, and they would be the at-large instead of us.

Of course, the CFP committee could inexplicably make us jump Michigan St, opening up a world of possibilities, but that seems....unlikely.

So, Roll Tide and Ride 'em Cowboys!

[redneckjedi]

The rankings are out, we are #12 and Oklahoma is below us. Baylor and Ole Miss swapped spots even though both won, making it slightly more likely we'll jump them if they lose to Oklahoma St. OU dropped 4 with a 4 point loss to OKST, and #9 Baylor would only have to drop 3 now to be below us.

And so now I root for Nick Saban and against Jeff Grimes, which feels so very, very wrong...

[redneckjedi]

With Baylor and Utah winning, our hopes now rest on either: 1) the CFP committee moving us ahead of Michigan St for playing 2 P5 Champs and beating one, or 2) Oklahoma St. dropping below us. Neither seems likely.

[scott715]

We played 3 conference champions beating 2 of them. The committee likes conference champions I hear.