BYU will beat Oregon

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Yzzazz
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BYU will beat Oregon

Post by Yzzazz »

:crazy: blue goggles on here, admitted, but read on and see if you can dispute the logic of this post. Even if I'm exaggerating these observations, I'm not wrong about them. I think they add up to a win for the cougs on Saturday.

To begin with, lets acknowledge that Oregon looked so bad against Georgia, you'd have been tempted to think the strength and conditioning coaches tried handing out CBD chewables as pain management before the game. Sluggish, slow-witted, clueless playing, duck fans needed their own chewables to endure it. The performance was so uniformly poor at every position you simply have to lay that on the coaches. They didn't get their guys prepared.

First year head coach and new staff, it's not surprising, but it was so bad you can't even give them a pass for being newbies. But is that the true measure of this team? It's doubtful.

On the other hand, the highlight reel from last week shows very little vulnerability anywhere on the team. So the coaching staff got it fixed, right? Not so fast. EWU made them look all-world by over-displaying the talent gap between the two teams. The eagles were out of position, not tackling fundamentally sound, slow, small, pick your adjective, they looked as bad against Oregon as Oregon looked the week before.

So you can't really tell right? I beg to differ. I think there is plenty of evidence to deduce what this game will be like if you know where to look.

I think BYU wins it handily (by a 10-20 point lead).

Here's why:

1. Right now, Oregon thinks they have fixed everything. They think they know what they need to do to get ready. They think they can handle what's coming. Like Baylor last week, they are wrong and they have no idea what's coming for them. The EWU game (just like Baylor's game against Albany) has given them a false sense of confidence, and they really don't know how to prepare. This will be evident about half way through the first quarter, and the Ducks will realize they have to step it up. By itself this initial surprise won't win the game. The Ducks could recover from a bit of shock. But unless they force a turnover or catch and early break, BYU will begin by scoring first and building a lead. How will they do it?

Offense:

2. Chris Brooks is hurting. He didn't make the yards he wanted against Baylor and he's feeling it. He is going to come out spoiling. He ran for 68 yards against the ducks, in Autzen, on a terrible Cal team. That team took Oregon to the last play of the game and everyone breathed a sigh of relief when Cal's coach put the ball in the QB's less-than-capable hands. CB will run behind a much better O-line and probably have an easier time clearing 100 yards gained than any other player on the field.
Check out 18:50 on this vid: where Brooks puts Cal in a position to win the game. This is the kind of running we will see this weekend.

3. The Oregon defense has either a false sense of confidence, or, if they live in reality, has their fluids scared out of them. They should. They will be playing against a team that features future NFL QB, O-line, and receiving corp. The REALITY of Oregon last season was that their defense was pourous. Check their box scores. Here's a fun one: 4-8 Colorado scored 29 pts in Autzen. It's the same this year. EWU rushed for 100 yards--and they looked awful doing it! They gave up an average of 28 points last year to competition that was largely lower caliber than BYU (don't forget, BYU was 5-0 against the PAC).

4. Gunner and Puka are mad-anxious to get playing. If they do, everyone knows Oregon has their work cut out for them (that is to say, no chance of stopping those barnburners). But even if they don't, everyone knows who to call: Chase Roberts. Truth is, Hill, Epps, Rex, Holker or Wake could just as easily break for big plays.

5. Jaren Hall. Whatever glowing praise and stats you could fill in this paragraph with, you aren't wrong for doing so. Everyone knows Hall is the real deal and he will be a difference maker in this game. They aren't going to sack him 5 times like the QB who last started for BYU in Autzen.

Defense:

6. Sure Bo Nix is better than Shapen, but that doesn't mean he's going to find it easy to thread the needle against an improved and stingy defense. Just remember, BYU's defense is better than EVERY team in the PAC 12 last year (and likely this year as well). BYU will certainly hold Oregon under 28, and quite possibly under 20. Can Oregon's defense match that? HIGHLY doubt it.

7. Our secondary is improved.

8. Our D-line is improved.

9. Our linebackers are healthy.

10. M A X T O O L E Y

Stadium:

Eugene is forecast to be around 60 degrees with a 40% chance of rain. I think any amount of rain should take the edge of the passing game for both teams and improve the outcome of the run. Cooler temps and mild humidity will eliminate any worry about muscle cramping.

Crazy noise at Autzen can be mitigated if the cougs jump out to a lead.

Final thought:

This is a Jake Oldroyd comeback moment. He won't miss a clutch kick, but I am predicting he won't need to.

Barring serious injuries to Brooks, Katoa, Hall, Tooley or Pili, I predict BYU wins 31 to 17.


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Re: BYU will beat Oregon

Post by ABYUFAN »

FWIW I see this week's game with Oregon looking a lot like last year's Utah - Oregon Games with BYU filling in for Utah. You did a good job of spelling it out more detailed than I am going to do


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Re: BYU will beat Oregon

Post by scott715 »

Oregon was awful last year. New coaches will hurt them for the first few games. I will there to cheer the team on.


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Re: BYU will beat Oregon

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Re: BYU will beat Oregon

Post by Yzzazz »

... And another thing!

I have been trying to make sense of the question "What kind of team is Oregon?" I think I finally have an answer and it is found in the other "O" state.

The sports media and Las Vegas have two false assumptions going for them right now:

1. Oregon is a really good and talented team.
2. The PAC 12 is on par with other P5 conferences.

Oregon has had a roster full of talent as evidenced by the fact that 11 players left their team for the NFL in the last two years. Six from last year's squad. That's impressive.

When Oregon beat Ohio state, IN COLUMBUS at the season opener last year, it solidified the public perception on both assumptions, and the impact carried through the entire year. So much so that no one predicted Utah would beat Oregon twice, both by healthy margins. That is the same Utah team that BYU in that same year. Oddly, the same Utah team that lost to Ohio State.

So Oregon beats OSU, but Utah beats Oregon and OSU beats Utah. How?

Call it the talent trap.

What happens when you are legitimately talented, but also young and sure of yourself? You are overly prone to be "undisciplined." Specifically, you assume you can solve problems, or make up for unforced assignment errors, with your speed or strength or both. Championship teams in college football rarely, if ever, are littered with a roster full of undisciplined players. This is likely the explanation to the triangular performance of those teams last year, and, combined with a first year coach, the reason for Oregon's stunning defeat against Georgia.

Georgia is both talented and disciplined. You don't make it through the CFP without both. Oddsmakers and ratings systems (Massey, Sagarin, FPI, etc.) have objective means for calculating the relative value of talent on a roster, but they don't really have great metrics for discipline. Largely because even the most disciplined team can play in a very undisciplined way at any given moment, or for an undetermined period of time.

This is not that time for BYU, largely because of the leadership of the coaches and Jaren Hall. Did you notice that story Jay Drew wrote yesterday detailing the Oldroyd moment from Jake's own perspective? What really stood out to me was that Oldroyd said he go flooded with positive, supporting comments, and ZERO negative ones.

I strongly doubt the sweet temperament of the BYU fanbase is the reason for it. That is almost entirely because EVERYONE saw or heard about Jaren's actions at the end of the game. Leadership made a difference. Humans are more likely to be disciplined (that is to stick with an assignment or plan) if they are following a disciplined leader they trust. BYU has that this year.

Oregon does not.

Lanning is probably a swell guy and a great coach, but Oregon is a young team and he is in his first year. He didn't have time to establish a culture of discipline and with his roster being drained of its NFL talent the last two years, what he was left with going into the season opener is talented youth. It was a hotbed for undisciplined behavior and it showed up in every drive Oregon made.

That was likely the explanation for OSU's loss to Oregon in the year before as well. Third (second if you don't count COVID) year coach Ryan had to rebuild after losing 12 players to the NFL. That number is high even for Buckeye teams over the years. He still had a lot of talent, but it was youthful and prone to leaving an assignment.

If this is the reason for the inconsistent performance of Oregon and OSU in the early season games, then it bodes well for BYU fans on Saturday. Neither Baylor nor BYU can afford to be undisciplined. If they are, they will easily lose to more talented teams. Both of those teams played very disciplined game, with Baylor (penalties) breaking discipline slightly more often that BYU.

I do not expect Oregon's sophomore-heavy roster to be fully disciplined yet. Even against EWU there was evidence of missed assignments. The most consistent knock on Bo Nix over the years has been this very thing. Could they bring it all together and rise to the challenge BYU represents? Certainly they could, but I don't think they will.

Because if the last two games were any indication, BYU will play an excellent script to start the game and they'll get a lead early. This could reduce the crowd as a factor, allowing BYU to put the game away early in the fourth quarter.

If Oregon plays a disciplined game and keeps it close into the fourth quarter, the BYU will have to rely on a miracle finish. I think this is a lower probability than BYU getting the lead and keeping it.


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Re: BYU will beat Oregon

Post by tmoney35 »

I absolutely love everything you're saying here, but past experience keeps me nervous anytime we play an undisciplined team full of athletes. Teams like that can pull a great game out of their butts at any time.

Overall, think it's pretty clear we have a better team and will probably end up with a better season, but you just never know what will happen on a given weekend with a team stacked with talent


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Re: BYU will beat Oregon

Post by Yzzazz »

“ absolutely love everything you're saying here, but past experience keeps me nervous anytime we play an undisciplined team full of athletes…”

Of course we didn’t even mention the worst part: injuries. Here’s hoping our players come back healthy!


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Re: BYU will beat Oregon

Post by EM_Puma »

tmoney35 wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:59 am I absolutely love everything you're saying here, but past experience keeps me nervous anytime we play an undisciplined team full of athletes. Teams like that can pull a great game out of their butts at any time.

Overall, think it's pretty clear we have a better team and will probably end up with a better season, but you just never know what will happen on a given weekend with a team stacked with talent
I couldn't have said it better. Ben Criddle noted that in the last 5 recruiting seasons, Oregon has not had a recruiting class lower than #14--2 of them in the top 10. THAT's a lot of talent. I just hope it's like from the movie Miracle, with Kurt Russell where he's explaining how come the all-star NHL team had lost to the Russians. It wasn't because of talent, but because they never came together as a team. It does seem apparent from our experiences of watching USC over the last decade or so. They have the talent, but they apparently never come together as a team. Here's hoping the same for Oregon.

Honestly, I still can't explain how Puketah just dominated Oregon twice last season. Head scratcher. Oh, I forgot, it's because they had Cam Rising.


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Re: BYU will beat Oregon

Post by Sammich »

I do not like this game.


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Re: BYU will beat Oregon

Post by Fido »

Observations:
BYU running game is overrated. The only team they have been able to run on this year is South Florida. If this OL is full of NFL players, you wouldn't know it from their run blocking.

The defense cannot--repeat cannot--stop the run. Teams are finding success by running the ball down BYU's throat.

Jake Oldroyd needs to either prove he can make some kicks or you have to go with the backup kicker (Smith I think?) Smith did well when pressed into duty before and Oldroyd is turning into a head case with 3 not close misses in a row.


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