What we KNOW about Riley Nelson

[Cougarbib]

In fairness to the one-sided OP, Riley will not have a 200+ PER Vs SJSU, won't throw a 40 yard bomb, and won't get a tipped pass TD - unless he does. He won't be rallying the team for a big 4th quarter comeback, unless Heaps starts, otherwise he will. SJSU = USU.

Oregon State = Ole Miss. Or close to it. They will likely have some speed. There new guys are gaining experience. Unless KVN saves the day again, Riley gives us our best shot for a close BCS Road Win.

TCU would eat Jake Heaps alive - again. They will eat Riley alive too, unless they don't.

In other words, other than yourself, who are you kidding. We don't know diddly squat about Riley Nelson. As a true freshman he could not lift all of the leaky USU boats. Neither couldcthe starter he beat out or the guy that replaced him when he served his mission. Riley Nelson was injured every time you saw him last season. Riley Nelson got a PER over 200 in a game where Jake Heaps got under 100. That is what you know. In fairness, it might have been a fluke. Jake was not a fluke - we know a lot about Jake. You know almost nothing about Riley. So do I.

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[Cougarbib]

Here's what I know:
1-An injured Riley played neck n' neck with a healthy Heaps last year.
2-This year we have won one game because of Riley, and we've won two in spite of Heaps.
3-Riley is an athlete, who is unafraid to take a hit, whether that's while running the ball or stepping up in the pocket to make a throw.
4-Riley's PER is much better than Heaps' this year.

The injury thing is so overblown. People now make it sound like he was walking around with his right arm held on by a thread. And people actually watching practice last year knew that Heaps was outperforming Nelson. It wasn't hurt to the point of surgery until the first quarter of his third start last year.

Stuck

Heaps still outperforms Riley in practice and in (no)Touch football. That is the problem. He outperforms himself in practice and the investment to try to getvthat performance in game situations has failed - at least for now. He will get another shot - unless he doesn't.

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[Cougarbib]

The one throw that Heaps has been very consistent on all year are the short outs to the wide side of the field. Heaps has the arm strength to get it there on time so that it's not taken for a pick 6. That's one throw, and yes it's only a 5 yard out, but it's a basic throw that Nelson cannot make across the field.

The deep out (15 to 20 yards), which admittedly Heaps hasn't been very accurate on, is gone. Heaps at least makes the defense prepare for it.

Play action deep throw is now gone. Again, not that Heaps has been accurate, but it forces teams to at least be aware of it.

Fly patterns are out for the most part as well.

The entire defense will be able to stay 10 to 15 yards off the LOS.

Another thing that we know that I didn't put in the original post is Nelson has played a total of 2 good halves in a BYU uniform. First half against Washington and 2nd half against USU. At USU he played one good game against FSU. The common factor in all these: limited tape/preparation for Nelson. When teams have seen him for more than a half, they have been able to beat him.

Maybe we can get PER to bring some objectivity. I have no idea, but I bet Riley had higher PER than Heaps in both halves Vs UW. It seems like Jake had a tough time scoring even then.

If you want to be objective - compare PER for UW, AFA, and USU - the three times they played a common opponent. Riley was the starter in two of those and teams have film on Riley at least in mop upvfrom 2009. They had nothing on Heaps. Talk about someone that gets shut down in the 2nd half - Texas and Utah and USU.

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[SpiffCoug]

PER stats in games in which both Riley and Jake have thrown passes:
vs UW: Riley 168.26; Heaps 104.37
vs AFA: Riley 74.38; Heaps 21.00
vs FSU: Riley -22.90; Heaps 89.92
Cumulative 2010: Riley 104.55; Heaps 88.57

vs Utah: Riley 103.20; Heaps 107.84
vs UCF: Riley 0.00 (one pass attempt); Heaps 74.04
vs USU: Riley 204.97, Heaps 79.95
Cumulative 2011: Riley 166.13; Heaps 90.90

Cumulative PER in those six games: Riley 125.75; Heaps 90.07

Career PER:
Riley: 119.22 (126.56 at BYU)
Heaps: 109.97

Career Comp% (to dispel accuracy myths):
Riley: 55.7% (56.3% at BYU)
Heaps: 56.1%

Career Yards per attempt (to dispel can't throw long myths):
Riley: 6.71 (6.82 at BYU)
Heaps: 5.76

Career Yards per completion (to further dispel can't throw long myths):
Riley: 12.04 (12.10 at BYU)
Heaps: 10.28

[SpiffCoug]

One other interesting note, Riley played San Jose St in 2006 while at Utah St. SJSU was 9-4 that year and won the New Mexico Bowl. Riley 21-24 for 145 yards 2 TDs 0 INTs and a 165.75 PER.

[Cougarbib]

One other interesting note, Riley played San Jose St in 2006 while at Utah St. SJSU was 9-4 that year and won the New Mexico Bowl. Riley 21-24 for 145 yards 2 TDs 0 INTs and a 165.75 PER.

Spiff

You amaze me. Nothing like some cold hard facts. I will be hugely disappointed if Bronco and Brandon don't give Riley a shot at 2-0 Vs SJSU.

If Jake starts this game that so many just assume any of our four QBs could beat, and gets us in a hole, even if Kyle, Special Teams, or Riley bail him out again, all of his apologists should get a 1 month ban if they come on here making excuses and espousing mythology to explain it.

I am not saying Jake can't lead us to a win. I am saying two things

1. We already know enough about Jake. It is irrelevant how he performed in practice. He can usually beat cupcakes, but does lose games we should win. We do not need to see him play more of the easier teams. Even if he wins, it doesn't answer many important questions about the future. He has too long gotten in thecway of developing others.

2. We need to know more about Riley. Fluke Vs new starter Vs placeholder. Riley appears to be best positioned to lead this team right now.

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[byucougar1]

Combine Riley's PER stats - thanks Spiff, with the intangible leadership qualities of Riley, and it is a no- brainer that we need to try and ride this horse until it can't run. Riley has shown that he has moxy under extremely adverse conditions - his last minute drive against USU was nothing short of amazing. Let's see what he can do while healthy and with a full game plan where he gets to check off receivers and read the coverage that is given.

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[SpiffCoug]

Career PER:
Riley: 119.22 (126.56 at BYU)
Heaps: 109.97

I just want to make one point here. USU was 1-11 that season. They won ONE game. They were an atrocious team. Yet Riley's PER was 115.47. That was Riley as a true freshman on an awful team.

Heaps' last year was 115.90 on a team that was 7-6 (6-4 in his 10 starts) and finished the year 5-1. I challenge anyone to argue that USU had as much talent in 2006 as BYU in 2010.

Ok, one more point. In the nine games in which Riley has throw 10 or more passes, he has three games of a 136 or better PER (and one other game with a 135.12 PER). In 17 career games with 10 or more attempts, Jake has four games with a 136 or better PER.

[hawkwing]

The only responses this topic needs is to read visual analysis of every single pass made by Riley Nelson. The only thing we know about how well Riley can throw this year comes from the spring and fall practices and this game.

[Alphaleonis]

Without going back and watching the last quarter of the game again for the 4th time, I only have visual images in my head of four of Riley's passes.

1. The last touchdown, a perfect strike to Matthews hitting him right in the numbers. Wait, Riley admitted in the post gme interview that JJ was the intended receiver. Before the admission, I was expecting a Pee Wee Herrman response "I meant to do that."

2. The sidelines completion where the receiver dove, tipped the ball in the air a few inches with his outstretched fingers, then caught it. The best catch of the season by a WR in my opinion. This was initially called incomplete on the field, but was reversed by the replay booth. A perfect example of a pass that would have been labelled uncatchable by the Jake haters if Jake had thrown it and the receiver had failed to come up with the miracle.

3. The touchdown in the corner of the endzone, where the receiver had to leap as high as possible to get it. Jake haters would have labelled it "ten yards over his head" if it had been thrown by jake, and not caught. Especially if the receiver had timed his jump slightly off and not gotten a hand on it.

4. The long pass to McKay. At least 3 Aggies had as good a chance for it as MJ when it was in the air, but the one covering MJ barely missed it by about 2-3 inches. The other two aggies had their heads up their armpits and didn't see the ball in time to make a play on it. (But what do you expect? Ever watched USU playing the last half of the 4th quarter in any other games this year?) Bronco said in the post game interview that he was holding his breath or something to that effect while that one fluttered in the air.

Riley had other completions, but these were the momentous ones that gave us the win. Can we expect a miracle bowl for 4 quarters in every game that he plays?