Re: BYU Opens as 13 point underdog to AZ
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2018 4:57 pm
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BYU Opens as 13 point underdog to AZ
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Re: BYU Opens as 13 point underdog to AZ
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2018 5:16 pm
Re: BYU Opens as 13 point underdog to AZ
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:52 pm
Thoughts on this?
Re: BYU Opens as 13 point underdog to AZ
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 7:32 am
I question the BYU run defense "strength." How good are we talking here? If it is turned up and the D plays lights out against the running strength of the AZ backfield, I think BYU has a shot. Must force the game into the air, then have our secondary make the plays.
Re: BYU Opens as 13 point underdog to AZ
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 8:30 am
The line on this a few months ago was 17 points. It's actually coming down.hawkwing wrote: ↑Mon May 21, 2018 8:18 am
I think the line is fair, considering what an all around awful team BYU fielded for 2017. I do think the game will be closer than that however.
This is one of the games BYU needs to win, against a lower tier P5 program, otherwise it will be another long year.
Re: BYU Opens as 13 point underdog to AZ
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:14 am
I have no way to be objective about this since I love both Arizona and BYU. I am very bullish on the BYU OL. I think if BYU commits to the run they could be very successful. I am not impressed at all with our WR so I really hope the passing game is only a secondary part of our offense, regardless who is QB.
The main reason Arizona's defense has been bad in recent years was the defensive line. When you are starting defensive tackles that weigh 250 pounds, and it's not 1975, you're in trouble. But that was exactly what was happening. That has changed with PJ Johnson, a 300 pound JUCO transfer, coming in to line up beside their only other capable defensive tackle Dereck Boles (Jamaican!!!). The back 7 should actually be good. Losing Scottie Young hurts, but Schooler and Fields are studs at linebacker. Whittaker and Burns are very good corners. I fully expect the Arizona defense to improve to at least average this year, maybe 5th or 6th in the Pac-12.
One note about Arizona's offense. The offensive line is a HUGE concern. With Friekh suspended, Arizona will at best start 4 new offensive lineman. Maybe 5 if one of the returning starters can't get up to speed. Tate does not like to make a quick read and throw. Tate likes to go deep (10th in the nation in yards per attempt last year). Unless the new coaching staff has changed this habit, Tate may be under duress wanting to go deep with Takitaki screaming off the edge.
I think Arizona is going to win. BYU doesn't win road games against P5 teams unless they are awful. I think This Arizona team will win 8-9 games given their schedule. But I hear the over/under for this game is 60. Given the OL concerns and an improved Arizona Defense, I would take the under if I am a betting man. I'm thinking AZ wins 28-23.
PS: I'm pretty sure that every time BYU plays Arizona I have been wrong in my game prediction. You're welcome.
Re: BYU Opens as 13 point underdog to AZ
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:33 pm
60 points seems a lot considering how poor our offense was last year.
Re: BYU Opens as 13 point underdog to AZ
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:27 pm
Essentially they are saying 37-23. With BYU's offense last year the 23 is probably generously high. With BYU's defense last year, the 37 is probably generously low.
That said, Mars brings up a good point about the teams relative strengths and weaknesses. I think it will be closer.
That said, Mars brings up a good point about the teams relative strengths and weaknesses. I think it will be closer.
Re: BYU Opens as 13 point underdog to AZ
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:39 pm
BYU has gone "under" in 9 of the past 10 season openers.
Re: BYU Opens as 13 point underdog to AZ
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:19 pm
You say Arizona 28-23 like it's a bad thing. I'm a kicked puppy. I'll take beating the spread and call it a win!mormonrasta wrote: ↑Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:14 amI have no way to be objective about this since I love both Arizona and BYU. I am very bullish on the BYU OL. I think if BYU commits to the run they could be very successful. I am not impressed at all with our WR so I really hope the passing game is only a secondary part of our offense, regardless who is QB.
The main reason Arizona's defense has been bad in recent years was the defensive line. When you are starting defensive tackles that weigh 250 pounds, and it's not 1975, you're in trouble. But that was exactly what was happening. That has changed with PJ Johnson, a 300 pound JUCO transfer, coming in to line up beside their only other capable defensive tackle Dereck Boles (Jamaican!!!). The back 7 should actually be good. Losing Scottie Young hurts, but Schooler and Fields are studs at linebacker. Whittaker and Burns are very good corners. I fully expect the Arizona defense to improve to at least average this year, maybe 5th or 6th in the Pac-12.
One note about Arizona's offense. The offensive line is a HUGE concern. With Friekh suspended, Arizona will at best start 4 new offensive lineman. Maybe 5 if one of the returning starters can't get up to speed. Tate does not like to make a quick read and throw. Tate likes to go deep (10th in the nation in yards per attempt last year). Unless the new coaching staff has changed this habit, Tate may be under duress wanting to go deep with Takitaki screaming off the edge.
I think Arizona is going to win. BYU doesn't win road games against P5 teams unless they are awful. I think This Arizona team will win 8-9 games given their schedule. But I hear the over/under for this game is 60. Given the OL concerns and an improved Arizona Defense, I would take the under if I am a betting man. I'm thinking AZ wins 28-23.
PS: I'm pretty sure that every time BYU plays Arizona I have been wrong in my game prediction. You're welcome.