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"Heaps a victim of Unga’s saga, but shouldn’t be"

by BigCougsFan · 5/26/2010

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Mars
Cougarbib2 wrote:
MARS - if U were capable of following anything very closely, U would realize that Heaps and Nelson were not calling the plays. Someone else, who wanted to check out certain situations called those plays and they called for Heaps to throw more and Nelson to run or hand off more. Bottom line - Nelson was asked to pass half as often cuz somebody wanted to see him do something else.

Ah, my English-as-a-second-language Cougarboard troll, you once again don't understand what's going on. Nelson gets more running plays called for him, but he also opts out of passing plays waaay too often to settle for a short run that's his comfort zone. And that's the issue here. He did it extremely frequently in scrub play last year, and he did it in Spring camp as well. He runs when he is asked to pass, and that leads to punts. And that's why Heaps had DOUBLE the touchdowns. Which is the only real point of the QB, at the end of the day.
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Cougarbib
Unlike U mars - I am going to go ahead and trust that Coach Mendenhall, Coach Doman, and the rest of the staff will be able to assess the extent to which Nelson did what he was expected to do on each play. And I will trust that the coaches have talked to the players about what they expect them to do and where they need to improve and will provide opportunities to show if that improvement has actually happened. Iirc, that is why they have Spring practice, have the players work together during the summer and then - oh yeah - they have Fall camp to develop players even further. Kind of a nice concept. And then at some point, they have seen enough to make the call.



If I were the coach, and I am not, I probably would not have a player run a bunch of plays I am already comfortable with his abilities on - would probably run a bunch that would help him develop and improve instead.



Regarding experience and leadership comments - Nelson has more D1 experience cuz Heaps has NONE - not that Nelson has a ton. To recap - Nelson played at USU for a year including some starts as a true freshman. He went on a mission - hopefully matured - hopefully gained some leadership skills like many missionaries do - came home and switched to BYU. At BYU he sat out, but hung around. He was part of summer player activities and observed BYU leaders. Done that a couple of times now. That is experience Heaps does not have as was the USU game experience. Then Nelson had a drib and drab of game experience last year and that is about it. Not much - but quite a bit more than NONE.



So think of Doman - prior to geting his shot. Nelson has more experience than Doman had before Doman reeled off 14 or so straight victories. Of course Doman had Staley - Nelson, or Heaps, or Lark, or Munns will not.



So counting



D1 on-the-field playing time (USU and BYU) - experience edge goes clearly to Nelson.

Practcing with a D1 team (USU and BYU) - experience edge goes clearly to Nelson.

Years in BYU program and familiarity with coaches and system - experience edge clearly goes to Nelson

Hanging around spring drills, summer player development, fall camps to know what is expected of players and leaders - edge clearly goes to Nelson



Does this make Nelson as ready as Hall, Beck, Sark, Detmer, etc. in their senior years - HECK NO! He does not have SENIOR experience. Comparing him to Juniors - he has more experience than most juniors that first started as a junior at BYU - I am not talking about McMahon, Detmer, Beck, and Hall who played substantially as a freshman or sophmore. I am comparing his experience to Bosco, Young, Doman, Sark, and others as a junior. Am I saying he is as talented as those guys - I HAVE NO IDEA IF HE IS.



Quite frankly, Bosco was quite a pleasant surprise as was Doman. Will Nelson be a pleasant surprise - I DON'T KNOW. Neither does MARS.



I am glad we have 4 to pick from instead of none and I trust that Bronco will be fair to everyone and I know that Bronco doesn't give a hoot who MARS thinks should start or whether Mars agrees with his choice - cuz Bronco gets paid to make tough choices. I hope it is a tough choice so we have some depth when one of them sprains an ankle, gets mono, or worse.



Go Cougs
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snoscythe
Mars, when are you going to stop relying on 7-on-7 statistics to pump up your boy Heaps? When you take the 7-on-7 numbers out and only look at 11-on-11 numbers, Nelson had only slightly fewer pass attempts, but he had more yards AND more touchdowns than Heaps.



I know the 7-on-7 numbers got the media all in a tizzy and look sexy, but Heaps wasn't able to replicate that when they played real football plays, and Nelson outshone him.



Yeah, Heaps had more touchdowns, more attempts and more yards in toto, but who cares about the 7-on-7 numbers? That's like determining your starting runningback based on the 40 yard times. Yeah, it has some relevancy to the position, but only to the degree it translates to performance. Heaps' 7-on-7 skills he has honed through years of summer football camps haven't translated to 11-on-11 drills to the point he has outperformed Nelson. He's nearly there, but Nelson still has the statistical edge in the football drills that most resemble what will be going on come Saturdays this Fall.



Add to that consideration the fact that the coaches had acknowledged Nelson is the better leader and the current void in leadership on offense after Unga's departure, and I think Heaps would have to absolutely blow people away this Fall (in 11-on-11 work) to get the nod. Otherwise, redshirt the kid and let him learn. If he's really all that, a redshirt year will make him all that much better, and it also means that Nelson is "all that" as well since he beat him out for the job heads-up.
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jonnylingo
It looks to me that Nelson has the edge right now after the Unga loss. there is a higher premium on experience and leadership now that he is gone. nelson has more of that than heaps.



even if nelson starts, he won't fend of heaps for long. heaps will be starting at some point this season I would imagine.



I am not really high on the idea of throwing heaps into the first game with washington. if things went bad it could really set him back.



hopefully we will be killing them allowing heaps to come and get some play time in the 4th quarter :)
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Mars
snoscythe wrote:
Mars, when are you going to stop relying on 7-on-7 statistics to pump up your boy Heaps? When you take the 7-on-7 numbers out and only look at 11-on-11 numbers, Nelson had only slightly fewer pass attempts, but he had more yards AND more touchdowns than Heaps.

You were asked to prove this and you couldn't. So you have no point to make here.
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SpiffCoug
These are the only stats we have to go on and they're incomplete. During spring ball, during 11v11 drills here's what each QB did. Notice, there are no interceptions listed, although both threw some. And this does not account for drives that ended in rushing scores.



Jake Heaps 62-of-105 for 774 yards and 7 touchdowns

Riley Nelson 29-of-51 for 389 yards and 5 touchdowns



Since we don't have INTs, their passer ratings aren't truly accurate but they are as follows:

Nelson 153.29

Heaps 142.97



So, Nelson was actually the more efficient passer. Even if he doesn't throw a better ball.



Even though we're about three months from the season opener, here's how I see the QB race shaping up, based on published reports and my own observations at spring ball.



Leadership: edge Nelson

QB efficiency: edge Nelson

D1 experience: edge Nelson

Talent & Upside: edge Heaps

Pure passer: edge Heaps

"Success-ability" in the BYU system: push

More wins in 2010 as the starter: push

My own spring ball observations: push



It's a tight race and the coaches have a very difficult decision to make. I just keep coming back to two questions:

1) Have I seen anything from Nelson to make me believe he simply can't get the job done as the starter?

2) Have I seen something from Heaps to make me believe he is only one who can get the job done as the starter?



And from what I've read and seen, the answer to both of those is, "No." I haven't seen anything from Riley to make me think he can't/won't be successful. And I haven't seen anything from Jake to make me think he's the only one who can be successful.
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snoscythe
Mars wrote:
Mars, when are you going to stop relying on 7-on-7 statistics to pump up your boy Heaps? When you take the 7-on-7 numbers out and only look at 11-on-11 numbers, Nelson had only slightly fewer pass attempts, but he had more yards AND more touchdowns than Heaps.

You were asked to prove this and you couldn't. So you have no point to make here.


Looks like Kitic provided them--I misremembered the attempts since the last time we had this discussion I think I broke it down into yards per attempt and completion.



Not everyone makes up numbers Mars. Hard to believe, I know.
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SpiffCoug
So not only does Nelson have a better passer rating, and a higher TD% (9.8% vs 6.6%) he also has a higher yard per attempt (7.6 vs 7.4) and yard per completion (13.4 vs 12.5) as well.



People can pretend all they want that Heaps is a better QB, but the numbers just don't back up that opinion.



That said, I still fully believe Heaps will wind up being the better QB at BYU. I just don't think that it will be in 2010.
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Brayden Green
Here we go again... Experience, experience, experience.



Yeah a D-minus is waaay better than an F. Go ahead and keep touting your "experience". Those 8 starts almost five years ago for USU (quite possibly ThE WORST TEAM IN FOOTBALL at the time) are really going to give us a big edge. And him hanging around the team for a couple years because he was never good enough to be our starter (and still isn't - that's beside the point), yeah that'll be a game-decider for sure.



NELSON wouldn't have even seen any ANY game time last year if the class act of the century, Brendan Gaskins, didn't step TO THE SIDE. So he was our 3rd string qb last year. GO EXPERIENCE!!!



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SpiffCoug
I'm not saying that Nelson's handful of starts several years ago and being a part of the team are the end all and be all of reasons why he should start. But they are factors.



For you to simply discount them because they don't back up your argument is faulty logic.



And guess what, Nelson did see time last year. The reason why he was the back up (Gaskins acquiescing to him) is irrelevant to the fact that he WAS the back up. To state that he was our third string QB last year is simply inaccurate and flat out wrong, because he clearly wasn't.



Would it please you if I had simply said "slight edge Nelson" on the experience factor? Because that's really all it is.



And I still haven't seen anyone give me any real reasons, pointing to real numbers that Heaps is clearly the #1 QB for the 2010 season. The numbers from spring ball don't show it. His experience doesn't show it. His leadership during the off-season isn't showing it (as demonstrated by reports this week that Nelson is the one leading the charge).



Heaps is going to be a very good player. And I'm more than willing to be patient with him. I just don't see him winning any more games for us than Nelson does. But I do think a red-shirt could potentially lead to more wins in some seasons in the future if he's allowed to develop.



So I still come back to my two main questions:

1) Have I seen anything from Nelson to make me believe he can't get the job done in 2010?

2) Have I seen anything from Heaps to make me believe he's the only one who can get the job done?



My answer to both those questions is "no." What's yours?
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Mars
kitic77 wrote:
People can pretend all they want that Heaps is a better QB
:lol:



Yeah, people like Greg Wrubell. People can also pretend all they want that TCU was better than BYU last year, and that Alabama beat Texas too. Of course, those are facts, kind of like how Heaps is recognized as a better QB than Nelson. And yes, he has played a thousand times more football minutes over the past 3 years than Nelson has, and is actually MORE prepared to be a successful starting college quarterback than Nelson is, despite the "experience". This is Jake's life, unlike Riley. Boo-hoo for those like Sno who have no compulsion against lying to make-up whatever stats they wish, if the only stats fly in the face of their opinion, no proof necessary. That little joker can shut his trap until his fantasy stats suddenly appear from nowhere to support his overactive mouth.



What is Nelson's thing that he's so good at? Running. But in high school, Jake Heaps had 119 passing TDs, 30 rushing TDs. There's a good chance that not only does Jake continue to blow the weaker-armed Nelson out of the water as a passer, but that because he isn't a one-dimensional player that he will actually prove to be a better runner at the college level in the long run as well. As a scrambler Heaps is better than Hall and better than Beck certainly. With Nelson, opposing Ds can stack the box because of his inability to throw deep or exceptionally accurately (dump-offs to the RB aside, which were among Nelson's two longest passes of the spring, broken runs from the backfield, not long throws down the sideline). Take away the run and Nelson punts. But Heaps excels as a passer. Take away the run and he eats your secondary alive. Take away the pass and he scrambles for easy first downs. Nelson is a very poor-man's Jake Locker (which makes him a doubly poor choice to start against Washington's defense). Heaps could pass Christian Ponder at this level eventually.
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snoscythe
Mars wrote:
People can pretend all they want that Heaps is a better QB
:lol:



Yeah, people like Greg Wrubell. People can also pretend all they want that TCU was better than BYU last year, and that Alabama beat Texas too. Of course, those are facts, kind of like how Heaps is recognized as a better QB than Nelson. And yes, he has played a thousand times more football minutes over the past 3 years than Nelson has, and is actually MORE prepared to be a successful starting college quarterback than Nelson is, despite the "experience". This is Jake's life, unlike Riley. Boo-hoo for those like Sno who have no compulsion against lying to make-up whatever stats they wish, if the only stats fly in the face of their opinion, no proof necessary. That little joker can shut his trap until his fantasy stats suddenly appear from nowhere to support his overactive mouth.


Mars, I acknowledged my mistake, you can go back a month-and-a-half and verify that I was working off of the same numbers as kitic posted here. You have yet to offer any explanation for your own numerical misadventures. Also, you cite Greg Wrubell as some pontificate as to what will happen in the Fall? The numbers we are using that you pooh-pooh come from Wrubell's blog. Which way do you want it? Are the numbers lies, or is Wrubell omniscient?



I know you are frustrated that we interpret the stats a little bit differently, like ignoring useless 7-on-7 numbers and looking at ypa and ypc and efficiency, you know, stupid things like that instead of raw yardage and high school game tapes, but show some maturity keep the debate on the players and numbers.


Mars wrote:
What is Nelson's thing that he's so good at? Running. But in high school, Jake Heaps had 119 passing TDs, 30 rushing TDs.


Funny how you act like Nelson is one-dimensional, when his passing stats out of high school obliterate what Heaps did. His senior season, Nelson had 50 passing TDs, and 29 rushing TDs. That means in one year, he had 42% of the passing touchdowns and 97% of the rushing touchdowns that it took Heaps a career to accumulate. Or, to make it more relevant, he had 5 more passing touchdowns and 20 more rushing touchdowns his senior year than Heaps had in his. Add to that Nelson had 600 more passing yards, 1000 more passing yards, 1 fewer interception, and threw a completion percentage 7% better than Heaps. Nelson had a 13 ypa and and 20 ypc, Heaps came in with 9 and 15. I guess if we go by high school numbers, the game is over, right?



Oh, and lest I get accused of lying and making up numbers:



http://www.maxpreps.com/athletes/NfwIhIH15kyapU7Lsyi0JA/football-fall-09/stats-jake-heaps.htm

http://www.maxpreps.com/athletes/LV2kEbdfBUKvuuwnGxQS7Q/football-fall-05/stats-riley-nelson.htm



There's a reason why both kids are Parade-All Americans, and there's a reason why their raw scouting scores were nearly even. Don't fool yourself into thinking Nelson is all legs. Like the defenses in the Fall, you'll get burned.
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SpiffCoug
Mars wrote:
People can pretend all they want that Heaps is a better QB
:lol:



Yeah, people like Greg Wrubell. People can also pretend all they want that TCU was better than BYU last year, and that Alabama beat Texas too. Of course, those are facts, kind of like how Heaps is recognized as a better QB than Nelson. This is Jake's life, unlike Riley. Boo-hoo for those like Sno who have no compulsion against lying to make-up whatever stats they wish, if the only stats fly in the face of their opinion, no proof necessary. That little joker can shut his trap until his fantasy stats suddenly appear from nowhere to support his overactive mouth.


Thanks for quoting me out of context. Here's the context.
kiti77 wrote:
People can pretend all they want that Heaps is a better QB, but the numbers just don't back up that opinion.



That said, I still fully believe Heaps will wind up being the better QB at BYU. I just don't think that it will be in 2010.


And just like
Mars wrote:
People can also pretend all they want that TCU was better than BYU last year, and that Alabama beat Texas too.
those people would also be wrong because the numbers don't back up those opinions either.



And again, all I'm saying is that RIGHT NOW the numbers don't back up the opinion that 1) Heaps is far and away a better thrower or 2) Nelson is incapable of being a effective and efficient thrower.



Receivers may like Jake better - why wouldn't they, Heaps is a very good passer and throws a very pretty ball that is very catchable. Nowhere in that statement should it be implied that receivers don't like catching for Nelson nor that Nelson throws an uncatchable ball.



And Mars, here's you're last statement:
Mars wrote:
Heaps could pass Christian Ponder at this level eventually.


How is that any different than my statement of?
kitic77 wrote:
I still fully believe Heaps will wind up being the better QB at BYU. I just don't think that it will be in 2010.


I think the only difference is I used more words to say eventually.



And Christian Ponder, really? Really?! You're going to compare Heaps to Ponder? Ponder the same QB who's been starting off and on for two years. Who was 4-5 as a starter last year. Who has a total of TWO games with a passer rating above 140 and none above 145.
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Brayden Green
Okay Kitic - here are some answers for you. This is the way I see things... A small disclaimer, in that I have nothing against Nelson or specifically FOR heaps. I just want to see our cougs win the most amount of ball games now and in the future. I think we can all agree on that.



1. I think that Nelson's "experience" and "leadership" are blown WAY out of proportion. Yes he started as a frosh, for one of the worst teams in the nation, almost 5 years ago. He took a two year break (salute) and then proceeded to get home and get passed up on the depth chart, once and twice again... He was 3rd string on the depth chart to begin the season, and only got garbage minutes. I attended every home game, and was very unimpressed watching him drop back into a 3 step and tuck the ball away, we were all wanting him to throw it, (and when he finally did, I wanted him to run it again. ). Can he get a stronger arm and better mechanics before starting?



1a. On the same topic, Heaps' "experience" is also discredited because it was "only high school, and college is much faster." While I agree with that, we need to remember that he played as a starter at the very highest levels of high school - he didn"t come from "podumpt-ville" fresh off the farm. I mean let's be honest, some of the playoff teams he played would beat some of our bottom dwellers in conference. Heaps has been playing competitive, "nike camp type football for the last 3 years with the best of the best as a starter. You can't ignore that he is good, maybe great, right now where he stands.



2. Riley passing farther than a 30 yd pass is a wounded duck. His run is going to be ineffective when they spy him because that is all he's good for. Quote me all the numbers you want, that won't change the fact that he throws an ugly ball, and is a pretty one-dimensional player.. Heaps throws a better ball. Period. End of debate, on this topic. And to say that someone is more accurate, but throws a worse ball is just weak. How would that happen, have you ever thought about that. Shaq is a worse free throw shooter, but he shoots a better percentage than steve nash. Oh wait, he doesn't. You have to understand that neither was in charge of playcallingan and we don't even know what defenses or offenses where on the field for practices. So the numbers are very weak.



2a. On this same topic, do we really trust Anae to re-tool the entire playbook to suit Riley's skills (and more importantly) cover up his flaws as quarterback? This is the same guy that continuously bounces a slow-ish injured behemoth outside the tackles on 2nd and 3rd and short situations with a 200 lb per lineman advantage. This, when they are already breaking in a new every other down back, and replacing two tight ends that accouted for much of our offense. Is now the time to spend all of fall practice changing everything all around? Heaps - if he can do the job- fits the system already as a pass happy spread offense.





Neslon has shown me in games that he can't get it done, and heaps HAS shown me that he can get it done. I haven't seen Heaps do anything to prove to me he can't hack it yet. If you are telling me that Nelson is right now a higher caliber qb than heaps, I can tell you right now that you are flat out wrong... Nelson loses us the first game, just because he is a very poor man's version of jake locker, while heaps as "inexperienced" as he is gives us a fighting chance. I see us re-keying our entire offense to suit an inexperienced nelson as a leading man, costing us more games than "inexperience" at the highest level the word can be used. How do you see it?



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SpiffCoug
BlueIsBetter wrote:
Okay Kitic - here are some answers for you. This is the way I see things... A small disclaimer, in that I have nothing against Nelson or specifically FOR heaps. I just want to see our cougs win the most amount of ball games now and in the future. I think we can all agree on that.

I think we can agree on that. And as to your last statement, I don't think we win any more games this year with Heaps than we do with Nelson. So I think giving Heaps a year to develop could lead to an extra win or two in 2012 or 2013 or 2014. I will try to respond to you and why you didn't quite persuade me.


BlueIsBetter wrote:
1. I think that Nelson's "experience" and "leadership" are blown WAY out of proportion. Yes he started as a frosh, for one of the worst teams in the nation, almost 5 years ago. He took a two year break (salute) and then proceeded to get home and get passed up on the depth chart, once and twice again... He was 3rd string on the depth chart to begin the season, and only got garbage minutes. I attended every home game, and was very unimpressed watching him drop back into a 3 step and tuck the ball away, we were all wanting him to throw it, (and when he finally did, I wanted him to run it again. ). Can he get a stronger arm and better mechanics before starting?

Why is this myth being perpetuated that Nelson was the 3rd string QB last year? He wasn't. He was the backup. Regardless of the circumstances (Gaskins asking Bronco to make Riley the backup), nothing changes that Riley was the backup and took backup snaps in games and practices.



I'm confused by your statement that he "proceeded to get home and passed up on the depth chart, once and twice again..." It doesn't make any sense. Please clarify.



Another myth that is being perpetuated is that Riley was awful throwing the ball and only wanted to tuck and run. Against Florida St he threw the ball three times. He completed all three passes for 61 yards and a touchdown. He had zero rushing attempts. That to me right there shows he CAN get it done and can throw the ball to do so. Now granted, it came at the end of the game and likely wasn't against Florida St's starters, but remember you can only travel 53 men, so it's highly unlikely he was going against their third or fourth string defense.



The only games where all he did was "tuck and run" would be UNLV (0 passing attempts, 4 rushing attempts for 17 yds and TD) and Wyoming (0 passing attempts, 10 rushing attempts for 71 yds and a TD. Oh, BYU won those games by a combined score of 111-21 - hardly the kind of game you want your back up throwing, (unless you're Urban Meyer and you don't care about embarrassing the home team by running up the score even more than it already is.


BlueIsBetter wrote:
1a. On the same topic, Heaps' "experience" is also discredited because it was "only high school, and college is much faster." While I agree with that, we need to remember that he played as a starter at the very highest levels of high school - he didn"t come from "podumpt-ville" fresh off the farm. I mean let's be honest, some of the playoff teams he played would beat some of our bottom dwellers in conference. Heaps has been playing competitive, "nike camp type football for the last 3 years with the best of the best as a starter. You can't ignore that he is good, maybe great, right now where he stands.


The highest level of high-school is nothing compared to the world of football in which BYU plays. Just like the highest level of college is significantly different than the world of the NFL. Peyton Manning played well at the highest level of the college world (SEC) and struggled as a rookie, yet Joe Flacco played at a much lower level and was very good as a rookie.



Nike camp football is nothing like real football. The skill sets are the same but that's about it. What we don't yet know is if Heaps can turn all that highly refined skill set into on the field success. I think he will - given time.


BlueIsBetter wrote:
2. Riley passing farther than a 30 yd pass is a wounded duck. His run is going to be ineffective when they spy him because that is all he's good for. Quote me all the numbers you want, that won't change the fact that he throws an ugly ball, and is a pretty one-dimensional player.. Heaps throws a better ball. Period. End of debate, on this topic. And to say that someone is more accurate, but throws a worse ball is just weak. How would that happen, have you ever thought about that. Shaq is a worse free throw shooter, but he shoots a better percentage than steve nash. Oh wait, he doesn't. You have to understand that neither was in charge of playcallingan and we don't even know what defenses or offenses where on the field for practices. So the numbers are very weak.


Who cares what the pass looks like. As long as it's complete. I remember coming home from Iraq in 2003 and right before half in the Boise St game, John Beck threw a ball nearly 70 yards. It fell incomplete in the end zone. My cousin said, "Did you just see that throw?! WOW!! What an arm!" I replied, "You mean the one that was incomplete?"



And I will quote all the numbers because they DON'T show that he is a one dimensional player. And again, if just the numbers from spring ball, they show that Riley is the more efficient passer. Remember passing efficiency and passing accuracy are different stats.



But for the record in spring ball, Jake (the much more accurate thrower with the pretty ball) Heaps completed 62 of 105 pass attempts or 59.05% of his passes. While Riley (wounded duck thrower who is one dimensional) completed 29 of his 51 pass attempts or 56.8%. Neither QB was overly accurate. And if Riley completed all of ONE more pass, his completion percentage would have been 58.8%. Just TWO more completions and he would have been more accurate.



The notion that Riley has atrocious accuracy and that Jake is simply lights-out when it comes to accuracy is not supported by the numbers.


BlueIsBetter wrote:
2a. On this same topic, do we really trust Anae to re-tool the entire playbook to suit Riley's skills (and more importantly) cover up his flaws as quarterback? This is the same guy that continuously bounces a slow-ish injured behemoth outside the tackles on 2nd and 3rd and short situations with a 200 lb per lineman advantage. This, when they are already breaking in a new every other down back, and replacing two tight ends that accouted for much of our offense. Is now the time to spend all of fall practice changing everything all around? Heaps - if he can do the job- fits the system already as a pass happy spread offense.


Now, this is an excellent point. Although, I think the criticism of Anae is somewhat ironic given that on 3rd Down under Anae we've been one of best third down teams in the country and BYU history (http://www.ksl.com/index.php?nid=498&sid=10831667).



Personally, I don't think our offense is going to resemble the previous four seasons all that much. I think we're going to see an offense much closer to 2005 and Texas Tech's. This could be where Heaps could get the nod, because I do agree that if you are going to go one-dimensional (throw-throw-throw) then Heaps may be the guy.



And for the record, we've been a much better team when we're more of a power rushing team than a pass-happy team. Something along lines of Bronco only losing a game or two when we have 34 or more rushing attempts.


BlueIsBetter wrote:
Neslon has shown me in games that he can't get it done, and heaps HAS shown me that he can get it done. I haven't seen Heaps do anything to prove to me he can't hack it yet. If you are telling me that Nelson is right now a higher caliber qb than heaps, I can tell you right now that you are flat out wrong... Nelson loses us the first game, just because he is a very poor man's version of jake locker, while heaps as "inexperienced" as he is gives us a fighting chance. I see us re-keying our entire offense to suit an inexperienced nelson as a leading man, costing us more games than "inexperience" at the highest level the word can be used. How do you see it?


I think I've already shown that Nelson can and HAS gotten it done in games. But I'm not sure how Heaps having never played D1 football has shown you he can get it done. That's your opinion and you're entitled to it.



No, I'm not saying that Nelson is higher caliber of QB. I'm saying I think that he's better prepared for 2010. That can all change over the summer and fall camp. I think Heaps is a better thrower than Jake Locker and the comparisons aren't accurate - but that's a different discussion.



I don't see either QB losing us the first game. I certainly don't see us having more of a "fighting chance" with Heaps than with Nelson. I don't see our record any different with Heaps or Nelson in 2010. This is part of the reason why, right now, I favor starting Riley and red-shirting Heaps. Because I think the year of development and patience and learning could mean more wins in 2012, 2013 and 2014.



I appreciate your answers and attempts, and I'm still not persuaded that there is more benefit to starting Heaps than letting him red-shirt. As was stated in other threads, red-shirting hardly hindered the careers of Marc Wilson, Jim McMahon, Steve Young, Robbie Bosco, Ty Detmer and Max Hall.



Again, I reserve the right to change my mind and opinion as more information is gained.
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SpiffCoug
Mars wrote:
And no, you have claimed multiple times that Nelson has had more TDs than Heaps in "important" practice situations, implying that the TD advantage an significant yardage advantage that Heaps has had in BYU practice doesn't count for some crazy reason, simply because you deem it doesn't. You have never shown stats to back that up, but you keep repeating it, again and again. That has nothing to do with the real stats that BYU, Wrubell, kitic, and I have posted in opposition of your fantasy numbers. You lied, and you got caught red-handed. I appreciate the song-and-dance routine you've carried on all summer afterwards though, if only for my amusement. I have no respect for you though, as someone who has proven to have little integrity.

I think what Sno is trying to say is that while Heaps threw for more TDs in the counted stats (7 vs 5), Nelson had the higher rating, so it is somewhat logic to make the inference that given equal number of attempts, Nelson may have had more TDs.



Heaps TD percentage (TDs/Att): 6.67%

Nelson TD percentage: 9.8%



So giving Nelson the same attempts and assuming the same TD% he would have thrown just over 10 TDs.
W
WestCoastCat
Looks to me like we have some of the Nelson family or close friends on this board pitching their case. All I have to say is I respect that you like Nelson so much and believe in him.



On the other hand some of your comments to down play Heaps ability are a joke. This kid has played against some of the the hottest talent in this entire country some of which who will be starting this year in the biggest BCS schools in the nation. Heaps upside is huge... dont kid yourself you can just ask the 30 plus bcs schools that wanted him to come and be a difference maker in their programs. Including the 2009 national champions Alabama.



Sorry guys but I'm not buying into what your selling... In addition to that I'm so excited for the young guys like Heaps and company that are going to infuse into this program. I hope we see allot of them on the field this year. I'll take a rebuilding year to jump this program into the BCS bowl game realm. That's how I see it. Dont care if you agree with me or not... Please dont even try and bring up the experience card with me...



The future is bright... Rise and Shout!
S
SpiffCoug
WestCoastCat wrote:
Looks to me like we have some of the Nelson family or close friends on this board pitching their case. All I have to say is I respect that you like Nelson so much and believe in him.



On the other hand some of your comments to down play Heaps ability are a joke. This kid has played against some of the the hottest talent in this entire country some of which who will be starting this year in the biggest BCS schools in the nation. Heaps upside is huge... dont kid yourself you can just ask the 30 plus bcs schools that wanted him to come and be a difference maker in their programs. Including the 2009 national champions Alabama.



Sorry guys but I'm not buying into what your selling... In addition to that I'm so excited for the young guys like Heaps and company that are going to infuse into this program. I hope we see allot of them on the field this year. I'll take a rebuilding year to jump this program into the BCS bowl game realm. That's how I see it. Dont care if you agree with me or not... Please dont even try and bring up the experience card with me...



The future is bright... Rise and Shout!

Not a family member. Not a friend. Never met the kid. I saw Jake at a BYU bball game this past year. That's as close as I've come to either player. I fully understand the hype surrounding Heaps. He was one of the most highly recruited high school quarterback last year. Please count me in the "Heaps upside is huge..." crowd. I fully believe he's going to be a star at BYU.



I'm trying to find we're I've down played Heaps' ability. All I've done is point out that hype surrounding him being all-world as a true freshman and being hand over fist better than Nelson is simply not backed up by the numbers that we have available to us.



High school football is NOT division one football. Heaps tore it up. So do a lot of other players. It doesn't always translate to immediate on the field success. You mention all of Heaps' offers. Do you think he'd be competing for the starting job at each and every one of them?



I'm fully with you. I was walking to my car after the RSL game (which fantastically exciting as RSL won 4-1), talking to a buddy of mine. We said there are potentially SIX freshman not named Heaps who could be MAJOR contributors this year. Ross Apo, Alani Fua, Kyle Van Noy, Zac Stout, Josh Quezada, and Tayo Fabuluje. There is so much talent coming into the program it is VERY exciting. BYU is well on it's way to being a very good and very deep team.



Right now, BYU is a perennial Top 25 team. I think BYU can move in to the perennial Top 15 team. And by that I mean, in bad years we finish in the top 15 or just outside.



But it is not a waste of talent to ask a kid to develop. To invest time in him.
B
Brayden Green
So I think giving Heaps a year to develop could lead to an extra win or two in 2012 or 2013 or 2014. I will try to respond to you and why you didn't quite persuade me.


Does Heaps NEED a year to redshirt? In a perfect world we give him one, but at the high level he has been playing, and IF Riley can't get the job done as well as Heaps... Do we need him?




Why is this myth being perpetuated that Nelson was the 3rd string QB last year? He wasn't. He was the backup. Regardless of the circumstances (Gaskins asking Bronco to make Riley the backup), nothing changes that Riley was the backup and took backup snaps in games and practices.


You are right, he was the backup, but the 3rd most talented qb. He was projected 3rd string until Gaskins stepped over. He was fighting for 2nd, but wasn't going to win.


[I'm confused by your statement that he "proceeded to get home and passed up on the depth chart, once and twice again..." It doesn't make any sense. Please clarify.


See: he was 3rd on the depth chart, and overlooked for the qb position. Max and Gaskins passed him up. I should've illustrated that better. I need to do less drugs, or more...


Another myth that is being perpetuated is that Riley was awful throwing the ball and only wanted to tuck and run. Against Florida St he threw the ball three times. He completed all three passes for 61 yards and a touchdown. He had zero rushing attempts. That to me right there shows he CAN get it done and can throw the ball to do so. Now granted, it came at the end of the game and likely wasn't against Florida St's starters, but remember you can only travel 53 men, so it's highly unlikely he was going against their third or fourth string defense.


I am pretty sure by the time he came in, they were up 30 or 40. That game almost made me throw up my $5 Cougardog. Congrats to him for getting that, but I can guarantee that he was against the 3rd defense. Have you ever seen Riley throw live? He's got a weak arm, and bad mechanics. Watch the games he played back... We are in trouble if he starts and we keep the same pass oriented offense.


The only games where all he did was "tuck and run" would be UNLV (0 passing attempts, 4 rushing attempts for 17 yds and TD) and Wyoming (0 passing attempts, 10 rushing attempts for 71 yds and a TD. Oh, BYU won those games by a combined score of 111-21 - hardly the kind of game you want your back up throwing, (unless you're Urban Meyer and you don't care about embarrassing the home team by running up the score even more than it already is. [/color]


Agreed. But that wasn't the plan. A few were qb draws, but not all. He shows a big time tendency to run. Reminds me of early Beck in the pocket, he's so jittery.




The highest level of high-school is nothing compared to the world of football in which BYU plays. Just like the highest level of college is significantly different than the world of the NFL. Peyton Manning played well at the highest level of the college world (SEC) and struggled as a rookie, yet Joe Flacco played at a much lower level and was very good as a rookie.



Nike camp football is nothing like real football. The skill sets are the same but that's about it. What we don't yet know is if Heaps can turn all that highly refined skill set into on the field success. I think he will - given time.


I would put up the all america High school team that he played for and against multiple times against UNM or UWY. I think they would have a fighting chance. Heaps is not very far removed from the "level" that he will see next year - minus TCU and FSU and kind of the Utes. I would think that the people at Nike, ESPN, etc. know how to put on a pretty good camp that shows results... that's just me though, never been there. Most people that come out of them are pretty good, just sayin. And I agree with you, Heaps will be better than Riley. If he isn't already... I think it is a clear push, at worst.


Who cares what the pass looks like. As long as it's complete.


Complete to whom? The only deep ball I saw him throw last year was to the other team (but it was called back so it doesn't count, right?). A wounded duck ball looks pretty good to the other team, on a pass longer than 20 yards.


The notion that Riley has atrocious accuracy and that Jake is simply lights-out when it comes to accuracy is not supported by the numbers.


Never said that. Jake is a better passer, hands down. I mean, do you guys want to go on record and say that Nelson is a better passer than Jake? Go ahead if you feel brave. Numbers can always say what you want them to say, but you can't change mechanics and intangibles (physicality). Go ahead, and say it. Me, I'm going to stick with the guy that throws a tight, accurate ball. Find out if they are throwing the same route, to the same reciever, with the same defender, and then let's do a comparison, all day.




Now, this is an excellent point. Although, I think the criticism of Anae is somewhat ironic given that on 3rd Down under Anae we've been one of best third down teams in the country and BYU history (http://www.ksl.com/index.php?nid=498&sid=10831667)




Right, because we always have a third and short, because of the passing on first and second downs. Now do you see where I'm a little worried when we have NO deep ball threat, and they can crowd the line all they want and take away our 6 yard pass


Personally, I don't think our offense is going to resemble the previous four seasons all that much. I think we're going to see an offense much closer to 2005 and Texas Tech's. This could be where Heaps could get the nod, because I do agree that if you are going to go one-dimensional (throw-throw-throw) then Heaps may be the guy.



And for the record, we've been a much better team when we're more of a power rushing team than a pass-happy team. Something along lines of Bronco only losing a game or two when we have 34 or more rushing attempts.




That scares me, because our offense has been great, and we don't do adjustments all that well. I really hope that we incorporate a option/wildcat attack to keep defenses honest... but I worry about basing our entire offense around that.


I think I've already shown that Nelson can and HAS gotten it done in games. But I'm not sure how Heaps having never played D1 football has shown you he can get it done. That's your opinion and you're entitled to it.




I think that Nelson hasn't gotten it done in D 1 yet, we don't need a clock runner, we need a leader. I don't see Nelson as that unless we completely change our offense, and I think that is a bad idea. Heaps has a great throwing motion, and only needs to adapt to the speed of the game. Should only take summer, but no more than a couple games into the season.




No, I'm not saying that Nelson is higher caliber of QB. I'm saying I think that he's better prepared for 2010. That can all change over the summer and fall camp. I think Heaps is a better thrower than Jake Locker and the comparisons aren't accurate - but that's a different discussion.



Again, I reserve the right to change my mind and opinion as more information is gained.




I agree with you on most of that. Thank you for your insight. I think that we agree to disagree on a few things, and I appreciate your posts. I hope whomever it is that we let them play the summer. I don't want to see Nelson start, and then Jake 5 games in (unless we are 0-5 and that won't be the case either way)
W
WestCoastCat
Not sure why you need me to spell it out for you but I will. Heaps would be fighting for the starting job at not every program but he would be expected to battle at all the programs. If asked to wait Heaps would be doing so behind some very talented already proven successful qb's. Not a qb that his claim to fame is that he went 1-7 at usu... and didnt even put the true freshman away at spring.



And if sno wants to compare high school stats and accomplishments with Heaps go ahead and try... its not even close.
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