Archived Topic

Newt Gingrich

by jvquarterback · 12/1/2011

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jvquarterback
Cougarclaw

1. Liquidity does not come from financial instituitions or banks. It comes from investors with capital. The investment firms that were bailed out were only middle men. Their demise would have shifted capital away from their dangerous practices (which are still going on despite an regulation you may believe prevents it) into more fruitful areas.



2. I think the 1920s is a great case study but start in 1920 when a stock crash about 80% of the size of the 1929 crash took place. No subsequent regulation was put in place and the economy was doing very well 18 months later. Then the 1929 crash takes place (precipitated by the actions of the Federal Reserve more than anything else) and a whole slew of regulations get passed and you get 27 years of depression. I'll take the free market approach thank you very much.



3. OK the defense argument is a little facetious, but it was more a swipe at people who don't pay taxes than anything else. The road system is likely a waste of money but I guess we'll never know without a free market alternative. Where roads are private, as many are in the East, they they are much more efficiently run.



4. Patents (and copyrights) dampen innovation. Some people make a moral argument that the inventor should always retain their "intellectual property" and I thought you were making that argument (the fire analogy). I guess not. But patents hinder technology, they do not advance it, there is a lot of evidence for this.



5. I said the rate of decline of worker injuries decreased when OSHA began regulating workplaces. That means without the regulations the competition for workers in the free market competition for the best workers was a better check in favor of worker safety than any subsequent regulations. OSHA's own data supports this.



6. None of those firms were a monopoly. Prices dropped dramatically as each of them grew because there was enormous competition in their fields despite what the US justice dept would like you to believe. They were broken up because the sore losers got their friends in government to harm the winners.



7. Regulations are always captured by large firms to hinder innovation so they cannot create a level playing field. That was the point of Stigler's argument because they raise barriers to entry which favors the existing firms.
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jvquarterback
Why is Ron Paul's ceiling in any state 25%? Didn't all the naysayers tell us it was 5%, then 10%, 15%, then 20% before? Why were they wrong and you're right at 25% now? He wasn't the second choice of many in the earlier polls either.



He does kind of look like Gandalf now that you mention it.



As for the interview CNN has yet to release the whole interview (even though they said they would) but they are already facing some blowback from other media sources regarding the editing of the end of the interview. It is hard to know what questions Borger asked and what his responses were to those questions due to the editing so it is hard to know what he was saying about the ten years number he gave as well as several of the other responses. I guess we'll see when the full interview is finally released.



Either way I still have to say I'm a little disappointed in Paul's response to Ms Borger. If I were Paul I would just answer every time that I didn't write them, I should have stopped them from being published, blah, blah blah. But I would follow that up by saying there is no candidate, Republican or Democrat, who has his record defending minorities from inequities in the court system, wage laws, racial profiling, etc, etc. No one really believes Ron Paul is a racist and if this is the best they have they have nothing.
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snoscythe
jvquarterback wrote:
Why is Ron Paul's ceiling in any state 25%? Didn't all the naysayers tell us it was 5%, then 10%, 15%, then 20% before? Why were they wrong and you're right at 25% now? He wasn't the second choice of many in the earlier polls either.


Because his numbers are now declining and he doesn't have second-choice support.
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jvquarterback
snoscythe wrote:
Why is Ron Paul's ceiling in any state 25%? Didn't all the naysayers tell us it was 5%, then 10%, 15%, then 20% before? Why were they wrong and you're right at 25% now? He wasn't the second choice of many in the earlier polls either.


Because his numbers are now declining and he doesn't have second-choice support.


In what poll are his numbers declining? If you are talking about Rasmussen, his support is up 18% 12/13 vs 20% 12/19 just like he is in every other poll.



He has never had second choice support in any poll, yet his numbers keep climbing.
C
CougarClaw
jvquarterback wrote:
Cougarclaw

1. Liquidity does not come from financial instituitions or banks. It comes from investors with capital. The investment firms that were bailed out were only middle men. Their demise would have shifted capital away from their dangerous practices (which are still going on despite an regulation you may believe prevents it) into more fruitful areas.


First, thanks for cleaning up my mess. I'll mess it up again for you.. =)



The money multiplier disproves your statement above. Banks are the #1 creator of liquidity in any economy. Here's a simple example. I deposit my $100, bank is only required to hang onto a small amount in required reserves, let's call it 5%. They take $95 and loan it to you. You place $95 in the bank. How much do we now have in the system? $195. you take your $95 and for now, put it in the bank. They hang onto 5% and loan 90.25 to a third party. how much in the system now? $285.25. And it goes on until there's nothing left to loan out but the multiplier is a key economic measure of liquidity. I can see your anger against "middlemen" but those same folks allowed banks the funds the they then loaned to all the businesses that started up during the last decade. In today's economy banks fund businesses. no banks. no business.


jvquarterback wrote:
2. I think the 1920s is a great case study but start in 1920 when a stock crash about 80% of the size of the 1929 crash took place. No subsequent regulation was put in place and the economy was doing very well 18 months later. Then the 1929 crash takes place (precipitated by the actions of the Federal Reserve more than anything else) and a whole slew of regulations get passed and you get 27 years of depression. I'll take the free market approach thank you very much.


Completely different story. Historically, recessions always followed Major Wars as the War industry ramps down and the unemployed fighting soldiers came home looking for landing spots. This wasn't a flaw at all with the free market system at all like 1929 or 2008 but a mismatch of supply and demand. And I'll agree with you that free market principles brougt supply and demand back in line. That's something it's very good at. Fixing inherent problems like 1929, is not something it's good at.


jvquarterback wrote:
3. OK the defense argument is a little facetious, but it was more a swipe at people who don't pay taxes than anything else. The road system is likely a waste of money but I guess we'll never know without a free market alternative. Where roads are private, as many are in the East, they they are much more efficiently run.


a victory! lol...I'll take it! As for Privatized roads in Europe they have been a success, The ones I drove on in France were wonderful! But don't confuse a privatized road system with ending government sponsorship of road building. The government still needs to meet the economic demand for roads, but choose to meet it a different route. That's not the same thing as letting individual towns decide whether or not they'll pave mainstreet or let it go to dirt.


jvquarterback wrote:
4. Patents (and copyrights) dampen innovation. Some people make a moral argument that the inventor should always retain their "intellectual property" and I thought you were making that argument (the fire analogy). I guess not. But patents hinder technology, they do not advance it, there is a lot of evidence for this.


i'd like to see the evidence. I'm busy watching Apple sue Samsung and HTC (aka android) for stealing iphone and ipad ideas. so far, their intellectual property has not been protected despite the laws in place.


jvquarterback wrote:
5. I said the rate of decline of worker injuries decreased when OSHA began regulating workplaces. That means without the regulations the competition for workers in the free market competition for the best workers was a better check in favor of worker safety than any subsequent regulations. OSHA's own data supports this.


going to need to see numbers here. I shared some pretty drastic numbers that showed a pretty effective OSHA. For any cause of the decline though, they'd naturally slow since injuries can't fall below 0.


jvquarterback wrote:
6. None of those firms were a monopoly. Prices dropped dramatically as each of them grew because there was enormous competition in their fields despite what the US justice dept would like you to believe. They were broken up because the sore losers got their friends in government to harm the winners.


Stanford disagrees with your definition of a monopoly.

http://www-cs-faculty.stanford.edu/~eroberts/cs201/projects/corporate-monopolies/development.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


jvquarterback wrote:
7. Regulations are always captured by large firms to hinder innovation so they cannot create a level playing field. That was the point of Stigler's argument because they raise barriers to entry which favors the existing firms.


So...let me get this straight. Firms are looking to use whatever freedom they have available to them to limit other firms from competing. In this case, the weapon of choice is lobbying and regulation. So rather than limiting these firms from this practice, you would rather open it up completely? You would allow them to use ANY method to beat the competition? I think I'm stating your point accurately enough, correctly if I'm not But, I can think of plenty of currently illegal ways a firm could take out its competition and none of them represent a world i want to live in. I'd prefer to focus on limiting special interest groups thank you very much!
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CougarClaw
jvquarterback wrote:
Why is Ron Paul's ceiling in any state 25%? Didn't all the naysayers tell us it was 5%,


nay. That's not what they said. ;)
J
jvquarterback
jvquarterback wrote:
2. I think the 1920s is a great case study but start in 1920 when a stock crash about 80% of the size of the 1929 crash took place. No subsequent regulation was put in place and the economy was doing very well 18 months later. Then the 1929 crash takes place (precipitated by the actions of the Federal Reserve more than anything else) and a whole slew of regulations get passed and you get 27 years of depression. I'll take the free market approach thank you very much.


CougarClaw wrote:
Completely different story. Historically, recessions always followed Major Wars as the War industry ramps down and the unemployed fighting soldiers came home looking for landing spots. This wasn't a flaw at all with the free market system at all like 1929 or 2008 but a mismatch of supply and demand. And I'll agree with you that free market principles brougt supply and demand back in line. That's something it's very good at. Fixing inherent problems like 1929, is not something it's good at.


I'm out of time for the evening so I'll just look at this one and get into fractional reserve banking tomorrow.



The exact opposite of what you described happened at the end of WWII. The country had been in a recession for 27 years and yet when the troops came home and government spending was cut by 30% the economy exploded.



1920 and 1929 are the perfect cases for an evaluation of regulation at the onset of a market correction. In both cases investors were overextended in terms of their debt. In one case the market liquidated the assets of poor investors and the economy recovered quickly, in the other government intervened and the economy didn't recover until government spending was cut 27 years later at the end of WWII and the government finally stopped try to regulate everything.
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scott715
I think we need to look at Heaps poll numbers now, lol
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snoscythe
Here's the latest on what Reuters has now excavated from Ron Paul's past--more conspiracy theories ("my training as a physician let's me see through the government cover-up of AIDS", Israel is running our government) and racist innuendo.



http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/11/12/Solicitation2.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



This one is even more notable, because Paul signed this one, and when given the chance to explain it earlier today, the Paul camp refused to deny or retract it because "he wrote it under his own signature." This solicitation from 1993 makes his denial of the 1992 materials even more suspect.



Then you combine all of these materials with the fact that he was the only member of Congress to vote "no" on awarding Rosa Parks the Congressional Gold Medal, and the questions start gaining traction.
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Mars
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IowaCougar
This has turned into quite a discussion. Here's my short take:



If Ron Paul is the Republican nominee, I may vote democrat for the first time in my life. He's the only candidate who actually scares me more than Obama.



For those of you who think he came off well in the debates - you must have been watching something else, because he came off as totally insane. If he were to engage in debates against Obama he would get completely dismantled.
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jvquarterback
The fractional reserve system is underwritten by the US government (they set the reserve requirement and insure deposits) so it is not a free market phenomenon. Like other government interventions resulting in monetary expansion it contributes to the boom and bust cycle of the economy because it misleads individuals who subsequently pay the wrong price in terms of interest rates, misallocating scarce resources into less efficient investments.



If you don't read anything else Ron Paul has to say about foreign policy or anything else read what he has to say about the federal reserve and fractional reserve banking. This article would be a good place to start on the problems with a government-backed fractional reserve banking system (I think some form of a fractional reserve system could certainly exist in a free market system).
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jvquarterback
IowaCougar wrote:
This has turned into quite a discussion. Here's my short take:



If Ron Paul is the Republican nominee, I may vote democrat for the first time in my life. He's the only candidate who actually scares me more than Obama.



For those of you who think he came off well in the debates - you must have been watching something else, because he came off as totally insane. If he were to engage in debates against Obama he would get completely dismantled.


The first time I heard Ron Paul speak in a debate I thought the same thing - that he had lost an exchange with Rudi Guiliani about the motives of the 9/11 attackers. I thought he was blaming America for 9/11. Then I read his arguments and the data he cited about the benefits of a non-interventionist foreign policy and later I read about how the monetary policy of the US is destroying the economy and I became convinced.



This is the reason Ron Paul keeps moving up in the polls despite the fact that he is never someone's second option as snocythe points out. No one who hasn't read what he has to say would consider him as a second choice but once they do look into what he has to say in some depth they become convinced without ever saying Paul is their second choice.
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SpiffCoug
What Ron Paul is naive about is the reasons they hate us. Does our presence there make them hate us? Yes. But they would still hate us even if we left. When you're out to destroy people, any reason will do. Osama bin Laden would have found another reason if we weren't "occupying" Saudi Arabia. Any reason would have done.



This is something Ron Paul doesn't seem to understand. Our intervention in the Middle East is A reason they don't like us. It's not THE reason.
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Mars
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SpiffCoug
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jvquarterback
SpiffCoug wrote:
Can Virginia be the litmus test between Romney and Paul? It looks like they may be the only two on the ballot for the March 6 primary.



http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/12/24/newt-gingrich-fails-to-qualify-for-virginias-presidential-primary/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


I was going to post this in a separate post. It is pathetic that none of the others could round up 10,000 signatures for a super Tuesday primary. What's worse, Gingrich and Perry actually tried to do it and failed.



BTW Gingrich also missed the deadline to file in Missouri, which has its primary Feb 7.
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SpiffCoug
To the average Joe, 10,000 must seem like a lot. But to a politician who is trying to run a national campaign, 10,000 should be relatively simple. To fail to reach that minimum is a huge strike against any candidate's viability.



This GOP primary season is going to be over much more quickly than everyone thought six months ago. Romney will be the candidate on Super Tuesday (March 6) if not much sooner.
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jvquarterback
Here is the calendar:

1/3 Iowa (caucus)

1/10 NH (primary)

1/21 SC (primary)

1/24 LA (Caucus) and WV (convention)

1/31 FL (primary)

2/4 NV (caucus)

2/4-11 ME (caucus)

2/7 MN (caucus), MO (primary), CO (caucus)

2/7-11 Northern Marinaras (caucus)

2/28 MI (primary) and AZ (primary)

3/6 AK (Convention), Idaho (Caucuses), North Dakota (Caucus),Tennessee (Primary), Virginia (Primary), Vermont (Primary), Georgia (Primary), Massachusetts (Primary), Ohio (Primary), Oklahoma (Primary), WY (convention)



The way I see this playing out is Romney wins all the northern primaries, Paul takes all of the caucuses and conventions, and the race comes down to the southern primaries. And I think the southern primaries will be determined by a competition between Romney's advertising campaign versus Paul's ground game. Hard to say now who would win in that scenario. But I think that is actually the best case scenario for both Romney and Paul because if there is a legitimate southern contender (ie Perry - who I think people have counted out way too early) I don't think either of them will win.
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