Will Romney win the election?

We'll know for sure by this time tomorrow.

I know what both sides are saying about the polls, but all I know is that for the last couple of weeks Rasmussen and Gallup have had R 51-ish 0 47-ish and now it's R 49 - 0 48. Either some momentum was halted or the pollsters are simply attempting to look credible for the future.



I'm preparing for an 0bama victory but praying to be pleasantly surprised by a Romney sweep of OH, PA, FL, et al.

WOW. The poll is so packed there is no parking. I have voted about twice a year here for the last 7 years and they have never had to park on the grass. And probably two thirds to three quarters are Romney. If not more.



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imuakahuku wrote:
WOW. The poll is so packed there is no parking. I have voted about twice a year here for the last 7 years and they have never had to park on the grass. And probably two thirds to three quarters are Romney. If not more.



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Thanks for the report. The high turnout favors Romney. Obama hasn't been able to fill a venue for months even with rock stars propping him up.



Just in case anybody is wondering, Romney might get 75% of votes in Utah. Which actually leaves me baffled that the 25% counter vote is so high.

Watch Ohio and watch it close. If Romney does not win there, the chances of getting to 270 are very tough indeed....

I am looking for some surprises. States flipping Red that were once Blue.

He's got Ohio. Hamilton county is way up and is the county that gave Ohio to Obama and Ohio to Bush twice and so on. How Hamilton goes so goes the state. And early reports are that they have about 80% turnout as of 3pm. That is just unbelievable. Get your party hats ready, I will once again say this will be a landslide. The silent majority is going to the polls! I had to wait 45 min in line at 11am on a workday. 2008 I had a 5-7 min wait and nobody had to park in the grass.

scott715 wrote:
I am looking for some surprises. States flipping Red that were once Blue.

In four years I can see more of them including NY, CA, WA, and maybe even MI and MN. This year maybe just WI and PA with the purple states going red.

THE MOMENT

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ByRsaeiv2xc&w=560&h=315

The bride and I fulfilled our "good citizen" duty this morning. I voted for Obama because Jay-Z told me to yesterday.

:bug: :lol: :whistle:

mizzoucoug wrote:
I know what both sides are saying about the polls, but all I know is that for the last couple of weeks Rasmussen and Gallup have had R 51-ish 0 47-ish and now it's R 49 - 0 48. Either some momentum was halted or the pollsters are simply attempting to look credible for the future.



I'm preparing for an 0bama victory but praying to be pleasantly surprised by a Romney sweep of OH, PA, FL, et al.

The key is to dig down. I haven't looked at Gallup's raw info, but they were predicting Republican +1 in their constructing of the poll up until they went out of commission.



What I believe we are seeing is that the pollsters believe this is going to be a close race so they are skewing the polls to show a really tight race (within the margin of error). As an example, take a recent CNN poll. They claim that it's tied on the top line, but if you look at some of the data, it looks kind of fishy.



They show the top line at 49% to 49%.



First, it claims that Romney is leading Independents 59 to 37, or a 22% lead.



Second, they set up the electorate to look like this - 40% Dem, 29% Rep, 31% Ind. That means for every 29 Republicans that vote, they expect 40 Democrats to vote, or D+11. In comparison, in 2008 with a highly motivated base and a popular candidate against an underfunded candidate and unmotivated base, Democrats only had D+7.



Just taking those numbers, and assuming that all party identified voters vote their party, it would be 47.29% Romney, 51.47% Obama with 1.24% undecided. The poll obviously finds that between Romney is picking off more Dems than Obama is getting GOP, which is why it adjusts to 49 to 49.



If the electorate is D+11, then Obama wins in a landslide. If Ind's are breaking for Romney by 22% he wins the election. I don't think either is really the case, but I'd bet on Romney being ahead in Independents as being more likely.



Given this information, if the makeup of the election is just like it was last time (39D, 32R, 29I), and if Romney is still getting +22% of the Ind vote, then Obama would get 50.31%, Romney would get 49.11%, and 0.58% undecided. But given that they are saying that approx 2% of the D's are moving to Romney, it would be 51.11% to 48.31% for Romney.



Expect a spread of anywhere between D+4 and R+2 to make up the actual electorate, and Romney to carry IND's between 9% and 16%. But that's across the country. Harder to determine in the states.

But I'm still nervous as heck.

stuckinbig10country wrote:

I know what both sides are saying about the polls, but all I know is that for the last couple of weeks Rasmussen and Gallup have had R 51-ish 0 47-ish and now it's R 49 - 0 48. Either some momentum was halted or the pollsters are simply attempting to look credible for the future.



I'm preparing for an 0bama victory but praying to be pleasantly surprised by a Romney sweep of OH, PA, FL, et al.

The key is to dig down. I haven't looked at Gallup's raw info, but they were predicting Republican +1 in their constructing of the poll up until they went out of commission.



What I believe we are seeing is that the pollsters believe this is going to be a close race so they are skewing the polls to show a really tight race (within the margin of error). As an example, take a recent CNN poll. They claim that it's tied on the top line, but if you look at some of the data, it looks kind of fishy.



They show the top line at 49% to 49%.



First, it claims that Romney is leading Independents 59 to 37, or a 22% lead.



Second, they set up the electorate to look like this - 40% Dem, 29% Rep, 31% Ind. That means for every 29 Republicans that vote, they expect 40 Democrats to vote, or D+11. In comparison, in 2008 with a highly motivated base and a popular candidate against an underfunded candidate and unmotivated base, Democrats only had D+7.



Just taking those numbers, and assuming that all party identified voters vote their party, it would be 47.29% Romney, 51.47% Obama with 1.24% undecided. The poll obviously finds that between Romney is picking off more Dems than Obama is getting GOP, which is why it adjusts to 49 to 49.



If the electorate is D+11, then Obama wins in a landslide. If Ind's are breaking for Romney by 22% he wins the election. I don't think either is really the case, but I'd bet on Romney being ahead in Independents as being more likely.



Given this information, if the makeup of the election is just like it was last time (39D, 32R, 29I), and if Romney is still getting 22% of the Ind vote, then Obama would get 50.31%, Romney would get 49.11%, and 0.58% undecided. But given that they are saying that approx 2% of the D's are moving to Romney, it would be 51.11% to 48.31% for Romney.



Expect a spread of anywhere between D+4 and R+2 to make up the actual electorate, and Romney to carry IND's between 9% and 16%. But that's across the country. Harder to determine in the states.

Earlier you said he had a 22% lead, meaning 59% of the undecided vote. That makes the numbers quite different than using 22% of the undecided.

IowaCougar wrote:

mizzoucoug wrote:
I know what both sides are saying about the polls, but all I know is that for the last couple of weeks Rasmussen and Gallup have had R 51-ish 0 47-ish and now it's R 49 - 0 48. Either some momentum was halted or the pollsters are simply attempting to look credible for the future.



I'm preparing for an 0bama victory but praying to be pleasantly surprised by a Romney sweep of OH, PA, FL, et al.

The key is to dig down. I haven't looked at Gallup's raw info, but they were predicting Republican +1 in their constructing of the poll up until they went out of commission.



What I believe we are seeing is that the pollsters believe this is going to be a close race so they are skewing the polls to show a really tight race (within the margin of error). As an example, take a recent CNN poll. They claim that it's tied on the top line, but if you look at some of the data, it looks kind of fishy.



They show the top line at 49% to 49%.



First, it claims that Romney is leading Independents 59 to 37, or a 22% lead.



Second, they set up the electorate to look like this - 40% Dem, 29% Rep, 31% Ind. That means for every 29 Republicans that vote, they expect 40 Democrats to vote, or D+11. In comparison, in 2008 with a highly motivated base and a popular candidate against an underfunded candidate and unmotivated base, Democrats only had D+7.



Just taking those numbers, and assuming that all party identified voters vote their party, it would be 47.29% Romney, 51.47% Obama with 1.24% undecided. The poll obviously finds that between Romney is picking off more Dems than Obama is getting GOP, which is why it adjusts to 49 to 49.



If the electorate is D+11, then Obama wins in a landslide. If Ind's are breaking for Romney by 22% he wins the election. I don't think either is really the case, but I'd bet on Romney being ahead in Independents as being more likely.



Given this information, if the makeup of the election is just like it was last time (39D, 32R, 29I), and if Romney is still getting +22% of the Ind vote, then Obama would get 50.31%, Romney would get 49.11%, and 0.58% undecided. But given that they are saying that approx 2% of the D's are moving to Romney, it would be 51.11% to 48.31% for Romney.



Expect a spread of anywhere between D+4 and R+2 to make up the actual electorate, and Romney to carry IND's between 9% and 16%. But that's across the country. Harder to determine in the states.

Earlier you said he had a 22% lead, meaning 59% of the undecided vote. That makes the numbers quite different than using 22% of the undecided.

FIxed it in the original post too.

BAD NEWS GUYS

OBAMA WILL TAKE AN EARLY LEAD TODAY

UNTIL ALL OF THE REPUBLICANS GET OFF OF WORK

scott715 wrote:
BAD NEWS GUYS

OBAMA WILL TAKE AN EARLY LEAD TODAY

UNTIL ALL OF THE REPUBLICANS GET OFF OF WORK

+1 :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:



Post of the day.

Looks like no Romney win tonight.



Good bye to my insurance.

I can't believe America is going to re-elect a failed affirmative action socialist. The takers have finally overtaken the makers.

According to Fox Romney has a 174 to 163 lead in electoral votes and a 32.9 million to 32.3 lead in popular votes. This in spite of losing Pennsylvania.



I went back to check and o now has 173 e votes.

Haven't given up hope yet, but it's looking bleak. Romney needs FL, VA, and OH.