Gonzaga goes down

SD beat the zags.



Going to have to be on our A game next week.



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Yep, picking up a win at San Diego is going to be tough. And we need that win to keep SMC and Gonzaga in the other half of the bracket.

There is a very good chance that USF will win out with 5 losses. We need this win to hang on to 2nd place via tie breaker with USF.



And of course the tiny prayer that Zags will choke and lose their last 2 games and let us win WCC on tie breaker.



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It does appear, though, that we're playing pretty strong to close out the season, with rotations and minutes figured out better than they have been all season. We're peaking at the right time to make a run through the conference tourney while the Zags are limping in.

BYU is already locked in to playing in a different half of the bracket than Gonzaga. There are 3 possibilities for BYU:

1. BYU wins @ SD, Gonzaga loses out. BYU gets 1 seed (BYU holds the tiebreaker over Gonzaga in the matchup against SMU), Gonzaga 2 seed as they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over SF. SF gets the 3 seed. (I could be wrong here, but I believe this is how they determine the seeding and tie-breakers. If tied, it goes by head-to-head matchup. If it is still tied, it goes by each teams' match-up with the highest team in the conference standing. If it is still tied, it goes by each teams' match-up with the 2nd highest team in conference standing, and so forth. In this case, the match-up would be SMU, which BYU would hold a 2 wins to 1 advantage over Gonzaga if Gonzaga loses out.)

2. BYU wins @ SD, Gonzaga wins one of their remaining games. Gonzaga 1 seed, BYU 2 seed as they hold the tiebreaker over SF.

3. SF wins out, BYU loss @ SD, SMU wins out. Gonzaga 1 seed, SF 2 seed, BYU 3 seed as they hold the tiebreaker over SMU.

So BYU is guaranteed no worse than the 3 seed and will not see Gonzaga in the tournament unless both teams make it to the finals.

Please correct me if I missed a possible scenario.

Double wrote:
BYU is already locked in to playing in a different half of the bracket than Gonzaga. There are 3 possibilities for BYU:

1. BYU wins @ SD, Gonzaga loses out. BYU gets 1 seed (BYU holds the tiebreaker over Gonzaga in the matchup against SMU), Gonzaga 2 seed as they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over SF. SF gets the 3 seed. (I could be wrong here, but I believe this is how they determine the seeding and tie-breakers. If tied, it goes by head-to-head matchup. If it is still tied, it goes by each teams' match-up with the highest team in the conference standing. If it is still tied, it goes by each teams' match-up with the 2nd highest team in conference standing, and so forth. In this case, the match-up would be SMU, which BYU would hold a 2 wins to 1 advantage over Gonzaga if Gonzaga loses out.)

2. BYU wins @ SD, Gonzaga wins one of their remaining games. Gonzaga 1 seed, BYU 2 seed as they hold the tiebreaker over SF.

3. SF wins out, BYU loss @ SD, SMU wins out. Gonzaga 1 seed, SF 2 seed, BYU 3 seed as they hold the tiebreaker over SMU.

So BYU is guaranteed no worse than the 3 seed and will not see Gonzaga in the tournament unless both teams make it to the finals.

Please correct me if I missed a possible scenario.

You missed many scenarios, not sure if any of them put us in with Zags.



Try this scenario. Zags lose out. BYU loses. SMC and USF lose any game not with Zags, BYU, or each other. If they play each other, lowest placed team wins. I have no idea how it plays out.



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Cougarbib wrote:

BYU is already locked in to playing in a different half of the bracket than Gonzaga. There are 3 possibilities for BYU:

1. BYU wins @ SD, Gonzaga loses out. BYU gets 1 seed (BYU holds the tiebreaker over Gonzaga in the matchup against SMU), Gonzaga 2 seed as they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over SF. SF gets the 3 seed. (I could be wrong here, but I believe this is how they determine the seeding and tie-breakers. If tied, it goes by head-to-head matchup. If it is still tied, it goes by each teams' match-up with the highest team in the conference standing. If it is still tied, it goes by each teams' match-up with the 2nd highest team in conference standing, and so forth. In this case, the match-up would be SMU, which BYU would hold a 2 wins to 1 advantage over Gonzaga if Gonzaga loses out.)

2. BYU wins @ SD, Gonzaga wins one of their remaining games. Gonzaga 1 seed, BYU 2 seed as they hold the tiebreaker over SF.

3. SF wins out, BYU loss @ SD, SMU wins out. Gonzaga 1 seed, SF 2 seed, BYU 3 seed as they hold the tiebreaker over SMU.

So BYU is guaranteed no worse than the 3 seed and will not see Gonzaga in the tournament unless both teams make it to the finals.

Please correct me if I missed a possible scenario.

You missed many scenarios, not sure if any of them put us in with Zags.



Try this scenario. Zags lose out. BYU loses. SMC and USF lose any game not with Zags, BYU, or each other. If they play each other, lowest placed team wins. I have no idea how it plays out.



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Yeah there are several scenarios. So I just looked at where BYU and Gonzaga could end up.

Gonzaga will be a #1 or #2 seed. If they win one remaining game they are the #1 seed. The only possible way they are the #2 seed is if they lose out and BYU wins against SD. That would put both teams at 13-5 in conference play and BYU would have the better record against SMC, thus giving BYU the #1 seed. SF could also end up at 13-5, but since they were swept by Gonzaga, SF cannot get the #1 seed.

If Gonzaga wins one game, and BYU wins out, BYU will be the #2 seed. If BYU loses and SF wins out, BYU will be the #3 seed. BYU cannot fall below the #3 seed as the worst case scenario 12-6 BYU team would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over a best case scenario 12-6 SMC team.

So if Gonzaga is a #1 seed, BYU will be a #2 or #3 seed. If BYU is a #1 seed, Gonzaga will be a #2 seed. So they will be in different brackets.

What about a three way tie.



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scott715 wrote:
What about a three way tie.



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In a 3 way tie at 13-5, BYU would be the #1 seed, Gonzaga the #2, and USF the #3. BYU would own the head to head over USF and the better record against the next highest opponent (SMC) over Gonzaga. Gonzaga would be the #2 with the head to head advantage over USF. That puts USF at the #3.