WCC Tournament

hawkwing wrote:
I did try it by dropping the outliers (lowest home & away score, and highest home and away score). The average then jumps to 5.86 points, but at that point you start to run into the too few datasets to have very reliable data.

A good way to drop outliers is to use Median instead of Mean. Dangerous to drop outliers on a small data set unless you drop high scores and low scores of BYU and opponents. Soon nothing left.



Take the swing we had with each opponent and find the middle as in this made up data. I have not done it, but believe you will find a cluster around the 15 point differential swing mark.



Made up data



-5

-1

5

9

11

13

15

15

15



16

18

22

26

27

28

29

31

35



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

If you look at the point differential between the same teams home and away it does come out to about 16 points. But I'm not convinced that that is an effective way of measuring home court vs away because the data is so all over the map. On the other hand, the average score home vs away fits very nicely into the kind of dataset you would want to work with in a statistics setting and provides some very solid results.



BYU scores 83 at home and 80 on the road. Granted, that does not include what the opposing team's home court advantage is, so actual point swings will be a combination of the two.

hawkwing wrote:
If you look at the point differential between the same teams home and away it does come out to about 16 points. But I'm not convinced that that is an effective way of measuring home court vs away because the data is so all over the map. On the other hand, the average score home vs away fits very nicely into the kind of dataset you would want to work with in a statistics setting and provides some very solid results.



BYU scores 83 at home and 80 on the road. Granted, that does not include what the opposing team's home court advantage is, so actual point swings will be a combination of the two.

It is a combination of the two and when you combine the two, you get a 15.56 point average swing in margin of victory.



I totally agree that BYU points scored differential is all over the map and BYU actually scored less at home vs 3 of the 9 WCC opponents. Triple OT games and defensive vs offensive strategy and injuries and suspensions can cause that. But for opponents, only SMC scored fewer at home than they scored in Provo. And generally, opponents lit it up at home vs BYU and struggled in Provo. You could say our defense gave it away on the road.



I limited this to WCC games because that is our only same season home and away data.



Median helps eliminate outliers and is another measure of centricity. Here is the actual data.



USF -2

SCU 3

SMC10

POR 11

UOP 17

PEP 18

ZAG 23

SDU 26

LMU 34



Median: 17



The swing in results for a pair of opponents, according to the study Hawk posted the link to in an earlier thread, is influenced by many factors. Great teams vary less. Altitude causes variance. Experienced teams vary less. Tough travel logistics and time zone changes cause more variance. Homer refs and timekeeper are a factor, too, IMHO. Injuries and suspensions cause differences. This was a factor at least twice. And for OT - should the margin of victory for that game be zero since it was tied at the end of regulation or be based on the final score. It is not a perfect science. We had at least one opponent play up tempo in Provo but slow it down at their place - SMC. SCU did the opposite. We swept both of them anyway.



When I pulled up the data, THIS STRUCK ME



BYU was 9-0 at Home and 4-5 vs the same teams on the road. I think I know why.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

If we do not win this thing our hopes of getting in the NCAA tourney are toast. There were a few bubble games yesterday that didn't help our chances. Colorado beating Stanford and Dayton beating St. Louis are going to fork us as well as a few others that didn't go our way



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

Here is another crude way of looking at our odds.



Zags beat us by 15 at their place. We beat the Zags by 8 in Provo. Perhaps, on average, they are 7 points better than BYU on a truly neutral floor. But, we seem to be playing our best ball and Zags had the stumble at USD - where BYU won a week later. If I were an oddsmaker, Zags by 5-10 points given that losing home court advantage seems likely to hurt us more than it hurts them to go neutral based on the factors posted previously. But the USD game clearly indicates that Zags could be had by BYU.



LMU beat us by 11. We beat them by 23. We should win by 10 in Vegas.



Pepperdine beat us by 6. We beat them by 12. IIRC, they had 2 starters out in Provo. It might be a nail biter on a neutral court. BYU by 3.



Portland tied us in regulation and a couple of overtimes before beating us by 4. We beat them by 7. Nail biter on a neutral court. BYU by 3.



Pacific beat us by 7. We beat them by 10. Nail biter on a neutral floor. BYU by 2.



We swept everyone else, so, BYU should be favored vs the others by margins indicated below:



San Diego 14+

SF 5

Santa Clara 10+

Saint Mary's 5



With so many nail biters and small margins, there are about 5 teams that could surprise us or conversely, we could surprise the Zags and win it all. And, of course, we will only play 3 of these teams at most.







[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

http://msn.foxsports.com/south/photos/analysis-10-giant-killers-to-watch-for-ncaa-tourney-030214#img_6" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Giant Killers no one wants to face in the tournament. BYU made the list.

scott715 wrote:
http://msn.foxsports.com/south/photos/analysis-10-giant-killers-to-watch-for-ncaa-tourney-030214#img_6



Giant Killers no one wants to face in the tournament. BYU made the list.

It says that we're 13-5 in the Mountain West. I didn't realize we'd played that many MWC teams this season.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/wcc_log51" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Has GU favored then us to win it.

Cougarbib wrote:
Here is another crude way of looking at our odds.



Zags beat us by 15 at their place. We beat the Zags by 8 in Provo. Perhaps, on average, they are 7 points better than BYU on a truly neutral floor. But, we seem to be playing our best ball and Zags had the stumble at USD - where BYU won a week later. If I were an oddsmaker, Zags by 5-10 points given that losing home court advantage seems likely to hurt us more than it hurts them to go neutral based on the factors posted previously. But the USD game clearly indicates that Zags could be had by BYU.



LMU beat us by 11. We beat them by 23. We should win by 10 in Vegas.



Pepperdine beat us by 6. We beat them by 12. IIRC, they had 2 starters out in Provo. It might be a nail biter on a neutral court. BYU by 3.



Portland tied us in regulation and a couple of overtimes before beating us by 4. We beat them by 7. Nail biter on a neutral court. BYU by 3.



Pacific beat us by 7. We beat them by 10. Nail biter on a neutral floor. BYU by 2.



We swept everyone else, so, BYU should be favored vs the others by margins indicated below:



San Diego 14+

SF 5

Santa Clara 10+

Saint Mary's 5



With so many nail biters and small margins, there are about 5 teams that could surprise us or conversely, we could surprise the Zags and win it all. And, of course, we will only play 3 of these teams at most.







[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

I will stick with this prediction.



BYU by 5 over USF.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

Cougarbib wrote:

Here is another crude way of looking at our odds.



Zags beat us by 15 at their place. We beat the Zags by 8 in Provo. Perhaps, on average, they are 7 points better than BYU on a truly neutral floor. But, we seem to be playing our best ball and Zags had the stumble at USD - where BYU won a week later. If I were an oddsmaker, Zags by 5-10 points given that losing home court advantage seems likely to hurt us more than it hurts them to go neutral based on the factors posted previously. But the USD game clearly indicates that Zags could be had by BYU.



LMU beat us by 11. We beat them by 23. We should win by 10 in Vegas.



Pepperdine beat us by 6. We beat them by 12. IIRC, they had 2 starters out in Provo. It might be a nail biter on a neutral court. BYU by 3.



Portland tied us in regulation and a couple of overtimes before beating us by 4. We beat them by 7. Nail biter on a neutral court. BYU by 3.



Pacific beat us by 7. We beat them by 10. Nail biter on a neutral floor. BYU by 2.



We swept everyone else, so, BYU should be favored vs the others by margins indicated below:



San Diego 14+

SF 5

Santa Clara 10+

Saint Mary's 5



With so many nail biters and small margins, there are about 5 teams that could surprise us or conversely, we could surprise the Zags and win it all. And, of course, we will only play 3 of these teams at most.







[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

I will stick with this prediction.



BYU by 5 over USF.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

I forgot to brag about the 10 point BYU over LMU prediction.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

Gonzaga is running away with it.



17 point lead with about 4 min to go.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">