What are reasonable expectations for next decade of bball?

Given 9 teams in the conference, the odds would seem to indicate Rose should get at least one conference tourney title.

hawkwing wrote:

hawkwing wrote:
I unfortunately don't anticipate any sweet 16 runs, but I very much hope I'm wrong.

DISSENTER.. DISSENTER

Your post has been noted.

For those opposed, please convene a Cougar Corner Podcast at your soonest convenience to make your opinions known.

Can I get tickets to the podcast conference?

wisconsincougs wrote:
I'm guessing most of you saw this article summarizing the successes of Dave Rose over the last 10 years: http://byucougars.com/m-basketball/dave-rose-decade-excellence" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



I've added a tab to my recruiting pipeline spreadsheet that adds additional context to compare Rose's 10 years to the previous 5 decades: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsoXzrkkdQYudEVzZTFsOVl4VjMxWXdybklNV1JySnc#gid=6" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



The step change from the prior decade is pretty dramatic, and it's pretty clear across all the major metrics that this has been our best 10 year run.



That said, obviously fans aren't satisfied with advancing in the NCAA tournament only twice, and not winning a single conference tournament. So that's an area we all hope to see improve over the next 10 years.



I've also put together some research that shows how our tourney success compares to others.



In appearances, we're in the top 20 nationally: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsoXzrkkdQYudEVzZTFsOVl4VjMxWXdybklNV1JySnc#gid=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



In wins, we are #47: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsoXzrkkdQYudEVzZTFsOVl4VjMxWXdybklNV1JySnc#gid=9" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Incidentally, #47 is also exactly where we rank in terms of # of weeks in the top 25 over the last 10 years: http://collegepollarchive.com/mbasketball/ap/app_total.cfm?sort=totapp&from=2005&to=2015" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Based on our past, and how we stack up to other programs in terms of resources, recruiting talent available, etc., what do you think is a reasonable expectation for the next decade?



I believe based on the recruiting pipeline that we'll take another step forward. But given we've advanced to the Sweet 16 5 times in 60 years, with only 2 of those in the past 40, it seems unlikely we'll get to a point where we're in the Sweet 16 consistently.



I'd love to see us have a decade like Marquette, Tennesse, or Purdue just put up. Consistently in the tourney, advancing past the 1st round multiple times, and multiple Sweet 16 and/or Elite 8 type runs. I think a fair expectation is that we get to the 2nd weekend once, but my hope is the Lone Peak trio coalesces early and gives us multiple chances to get there.



I'll take an early prediction and say 8 tourney bids (matching this decade), with 10 wins. Biggest run will be getting back to the Elite 8.



What about you guys? 8 bids and 3.5 wins is what we saw in the past 10. What do you think is coming over the next 10?

I expect that The Hartsock clan has like 20 kids and in 20 years Andrew Harrisons kid at Kentucky mumbles f%%$%# that #$#%&! on our way to the championship game...



Truly I feel like because of missions BYU is always 1 or 2 missing pieces from truly being dominant even in their best years. I like the pieces that are coming in and the quality of hoops coming out of Utah will give us top 20 caliber quality for the next decade, but it takes someone special and a solid defensive squad to make serious consistent sweet 16 and elite eight runs.



I feel like the coaching staff is on the hook for the ole miss game and they need to up their game as much as the guys on the court. Our team tolerates too many mistakes and has too many lapses on the court right now to lead me to believe that talent alone will push us to the next level. Our coaching and preparation need to improve as much as our talent needs to improve. Our strength and conditioning need to improve drastically and we need to be able to feed the post and get to the line or get a basket (like all other top teams can do). Guys like Jake Toolson need to work on their bodies, lean body mass, and explosiveness (I think Toolson can effectively replace Haws if he does). (Guys like Josh Sharp failed to do so). Guys like KC need to work on their outside shot. These are things that aren't negotiable at top programs. Guys are expected to work their butts off in the offseason. At BYU it sometimes seems optional.



I love that BYU is getting better hoops facilities. I love that transfers are willing to come at sit at BYU (even pay their way) rather than go elsewhere. I absolutely love zac seljaas. I want Frank Jackson badly and I hope that he sees the light that that the BYU offense was built for him (the practice facility might have been built for him too). Eric Mika, Peyton Dastrup, Bronson Kaufusi (we get bronson, isaac nielsen, mika and eventually ryan andrus for 3 more years). We have the pieces to have a solid defensive and offensive front court.



What I worry about: Nick Emery and TJ Haws might not be athletic or physical enough to be dominant at the next level. (I hope I'm wrong) They dominated in high school and in spite of their lack of bigs (depthwise) they dominated many many guys that were in the NCAA tourney this year. But what kind of players are they going to be in college?



I worry that Utah is not going away. I don't like sharing recruits with them and prefer that the U and USUs hoops programs completely implode (USU might be).



I LOVE DAVE ROSE... I LOVE HIS STYLE OF PLAY... I LOVE HIS DEMEANOR... I LOVE WHAT HE'S DONE FOR BYU HOOPS... BUT... I worry that Coach Rose doesn't have a killer instinct and is too loyal to his assistants. I want a shake up. If getting Quincy Lewis to the Y gets us Frank Jackson and Poopola then DO IT.......... But I think Lewis offers a lot more than that. I think he offers an intensity that we have never seen at the Y. There is not a future BYU head coach after Dave Rose on the bench right now (if they promote Terry Nashif in 10 years I'll throw up). Coach Rose came from the juco ranks and was hired from Coach Cleve who came from the juco ranks (when hiring a hc from the juco ranks was crazy). I say give Quincy a chance to not only show he's ready to be a DI assistant, but that he might be the best potential candidate to replace Dave Rose in 10 years. Do something unexpected because winning is important enough to do something different. (Let Nashif go coach a JUCO or small school and see if he can manage winning as the boss... how long is he going to ride Coach's coat tails?)



I am excited about the future of BYU hoops but there are also a lot of concerns because no matter what talent comes in in the future, we still see issues with closing out games, losing to teams that we shouldn't lose to, not being physical or explosive enough, defending the perimeter and missing on recruits (guys that never got better (worthington, sharp, ambrosino, etc.) and not quite sealing the deal on Loveridge, etc.



There are things to improve. There are things to tighten up. There are lots of reasons to be very optimistic too.

Not sure about the next 10 years, but the next 6, IMO will all end with a NCAA bid. Over 10 year I would think 8-10. I really believe BYU will make Elite 8 and Final 4 runs (just because of the Lone Peak players and those being added with them. Who would of thought that a High School team from Utah could ever be named National Champions. BYU will have a loaded team come 2016-17 that will like only get more loaded will big time talent... Utah has been producing some really great LDS talent for a number of year now and does look to be slowing up any time soon. Granted BYU won't get all of them (Loveridge and Chatman just in the last couple years), but they will get their fair share. Some that Coach Rose has got since becoming the Head Coach Jackson Emery, Brandon Davies, Tyler Haws, and Kyle Collinsworth... Then their is the Lone Peak 3 Eric Mika, Nick Emery, and TJ Haws. Another recruit from this year is Zac Seljaas who is a 4 star, #19 PF recruit (IMO, he is and will play SF, he made 217 3's at Bountiful High School), next year (2016) Utah has 3 top 100 Scout.com recruits: Frank Jackson (#23 Nationally, 5 stars, #6 PG), Gavin Baxter (#43 Nationally, 4 stars, #8 PF), and Brendan Bailey (#51 Nationally, 4 stars, #15 SF)...



So in the 2018-19 season BYU could have a 4 star recruit at all 5 positions:

PG- TJ Haws 6'4"

SG- Nick Emery 6'2"

SF- Zac Seljaas 6'7"

PF- Payton Dastrup 6'10"

C- Eric Mika 6'10"



That could be a very strong lineup, granted there could be older and more experienced players starting ahead of some of these players (Zac most likely) and injuries could also be a factor... But on paper that looks pretty impressive, I can remember BYU ever having that many Blue Chip/Highly Rated players on the team at the same time. Coach Rose has really been loading up with 3 star or better recruits for future teams:

4 Stars

2013 Eric Mika 6'10" C

2013 Nick Emery 6'2" SG

2014 TJ Haws 6'4" PG

2014 Payton Dastrup 6'10" PF

2015 Zac Seljaas 6'7" SF



3 Stars

2013 Jakob Hartsock 6'7" PF

2013 Braiden Shaw 6'8" PF

2013 Luke Worthington 6'10" C

2013 Jamal Aytes 6'6" PF (UNLV Transfer)

2014 Jake Toolson 6'5" SF

2014 Dalton Nixon 6'7" SF



For what ever reason the 2012 recruits SG Cory Calvert (Colorado Player of the Year) and PG Jordan Chatman (Washington Player of the Year) were not rated very high (Cory 2 star and Jordan was not even rated by Scout.com).



If you look at the 3 star or better rated players from this season rosters you would find:

3 stars (according to Scout.com)

2009 Tyler Haws 6'5" SG

2010 Kyle Collinsworth 6'6" SF

2010 Anson Winder 6'3" SG

2011 Chase Fischer 6'3" SG (Wake Forest Transfer)

2013 Luke Worthington 6'10" C

2013 Jamal Aytes 6'6" PF (UNLV Transfer)

2014 Jake Toolson 6'5" SF

2014 Dalton Nixon 6'7" SF



As for the Elite 8 or Final 4, I'm betting on that because of this man playing the point...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=VrDoq02yBX0





8)

To start off the next decade ESPN has us projected as a 9 seed next year.



http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/2015/insider/story/_/id/12627883/your-1-16-seed-list-2016-ncaa-tournament-college-basketball" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


585474561501704192

Are we going to commit to playing defense or not? Is coach Rose willing to bench his best players if they don't sell out on the defensive end? I think Rose is a very good coach. I am happy to have him at BYU, but my fear is that he has not created a culture that lends itself to tournament success.



We have some nice talent coming in. Let's strive to lead the NCAA in scoring defense rather than scoring. Let's hold players accountable on both sides of the floor. If we do that we can win conference tournaments, beat single digit seeds, win as a lower seed and advance to the elite 8. All of these these things have been done in our history.



What troubles me the most is this. There have been 70 programs that have made the Elite 8/Round of 8 at least 3 times in their history. Only 6 have not made the Final Four. BYU is one of them (1950, 1951, 1981 round of 8 appearances). I would love to see Rose take us to where we have never been, but it's going to require a dramatic change in how we do things.

If we don't believe that BYU can make multiple Sweet 16 runs in the next 10 years then we need a new head coach. I know what Dave Rose has done. Raised the program from the ashes. But I feel he has hit a plateau. Thank you Dave Rose. I love you. Now, I want to go to the next level. Who can take us? How do we get there? I am not satisfied with 0-1 Sweet 16 runs in the next 10 years and I can't believe any of you would be either...



I kinda feel the same way about Bronco. Good but not great coach who has hit a plateau.

craigoscarson wrote:


I feel like the coaching staff is on the hook for the ole miss game and they need to up their game as much as the guys on the court. Our team tolerates too many mistakes and has too many lapses on the court right now to lead me to believe that talent alone will push us to the next level. Our coaching and preparation need to improve as much as our talent needs to improve. Our strength and conditioning need to improve drastically and we need to be able to feed the post and get to the line or get a basket (like all other top teams can do). Guys like Jake Toolson need to work on their bodies, lean body mass, and explosiveness (I think Toolson can effectively replace Haws if he does). (Guys like Josh Sharp failed to do so). Guys like KC need to work on their outside shot. These are things that aren't negotiable at top programs. Guys are expected to work their butts off in the offseason. At BYU it sometimes seems optional.



I LOVE DAVE ROSE... I LOVE HIS STYLE OF PLAY... I LOVE HIS DEMEANOR... I LOVE WHAT HE'S DONE FOR BYU HOOPS... BUT... I worry that Coach Rose doesn't have a killer instinct and is too loyal to his assistants. I want a shake up. If getting Quincy Lewis to the Y gets us Frank Jackson and Poopola then DO IT.......... But I think Lewis offers a lot more than that. I think he offers an intensity that we have never seen at the Y. There is not a future BYU head coach after Dave Rose on the bench right now (if they promote Terry Nashif in 10 years I'll throw up). Coach Rose came from the juco ranks and was hired from Coach Cleve who came from the juco ranks (when hiring a hc from the juco ranks was crazy). I say give Quincy a chance to not only show he's ready to be a DI assistant, but that he might be the best potential candidate to replace Dave Rose in 10 years. Do something unexpected because winning is important enough to do something different. (Let Nashif go coach a JUCO or small school and see if he can manage winning as the boss... how long is he going to ride Coach's coat tails?)

+1 to these two paragraphs. Pretty much how I feel.

C'mon guys, don't you know that if Rose is the best we've ever had, you are forbidden from identifying his flaws and suggesting that *gasp* we may be able to do better with a different man at the helm?

That is true for most LDS coaches out there. Maybe Lewis can take us further. He needs to fine the right assistant coach. He does not need to do it all. Rice worked out when he was hired. There has to be a younger Rice out there.

snoscythe wrote:
C'mon guys, don't you know that if Rose is the best we've ever had, you are forbidden from identifying his flaws and suggesting that *gasp* we may be able to do better with a different man at the helm?

Sarcasm aside, I have no problems identifying and discussing the relative strengths and weaknesses of Coach Rose. However I do have a problem with we should look elsewhere than the coach who has the 2nd most wins and the highest all time winning percentage in the history of the program for someone who 'may" do better.



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I don't care about regular season wins. You can have them. I want conference championships and Big Dance wins.



Next 10 Years

Regular Season Wins: 0-5 Million, I don't really care

Conference Championships: 3+

Sweet 16 Runs: 2+

Elite Eight Runs: 1+



Obviously we need regular season wins to win conference championships and to get into the tournament, but that shouldn't be the judge of the program. Conference championships and tourney runs should be.

snoscythe wrote:
C'mon guys, don't you know that if Rose is the best we've ever had, you are forbidden from identifying his flaws and suggesting that *gasp* we may be able to do better with a different man at the helm?

If you point out any flaws in Rose it just means that you are part of Bronco's family and that you're only doing it out of spite. Because, what other possible explanation could there be for fans to point out that a coach is imperfect other than vindictiveness?

Posts like this is why I come to CougarCorner and I will always say CC > CB

Thanks Craig!!

craigoscarson wrote:

I'm guessing most of you saw this article summarizing the successes of Dave Rose over the last 10 years: http://byucougars.com/m-basketball/dave-rose-decade-excellence" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



I've added a tab to my recruiting pipeline spreadsheet that adds additional context to compare Rose's 10 years to the previous 5 decades: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsoXzrkkdQYudEVzZTFsOVl4VjMxWXdybklNV1JySnc#gid=6" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



The step change from the prior decade is pretty dramatic, and it's pretty clear across all the major metrics that this has been our best 10 year run.



That said, obviously fans aren't satisfied with advancing in the NCAA tournament only twice, and not winning a single conference tournament. So that's an area we all hope to see improve over the next 10 years.



I've also put together some research that shows how our tourney success compares to others.



In appearances, we're in the top 20 nationally: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsoXzrkkdQYudEVzZTFsOVl4VjMxWXdybklNV1JySnc#gid=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



In wins, we are #47: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsoXzrkkdQYudEVzZTFsOVl4VjMxWXdybklNV1JySnc#gid=9" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Incidentally, #47 is also exactly where we rank in terms of # of weeks in the top 25 over the last 10 years: http://collegepollarchive.com/mbasketball/ap/app_total.cfm?sort=totapp&from=2005&to=2015" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Based on our past, and how we stack up to other programs in terms of resources, recruiting talent available, etc., what do you think is a reasonable expectation for the next decade?



I believe based on the recruiting pipeline that we'll take another step forward. But given we've advanced to the Sweet 16 5 times in 60 years, with only 2 of those in the past 40, it seems unlikely we'll get to a point where we're in the Sweet 16 consistently.



I'd love to see us have a decade like Marquette, Tennesse, or Purdue just put up. Consistently in the tourney, advancing past the 1st round multiple times, and multiple Sweet 16 and/or Elite 8 type runs. I think a fair expectation is that we get to the 2nd weekend once, but my hope is the Lone Peak trio coalesces early and gives us multiple chances to get there.



I'll take an early prediction and say 8 tourney bids (matching this decade), with 10 wins. Biggest run will be getting back to the Elite 8.



What about you guys? 8 bids and 3.5 wins is what we saw in the past 10. What do you think is coming over the next 10?

I expect that The Hartsock clan has like 20 kids and in 20 years Andrew Harrisons kid at Kentucky mumbles f%%$%# that #$#%&! on our way to the championship game...



Truly I feel like because of missions BYU is always 1 or 2 missing pieces from truly being dominant even in their best years. I like the pieces that are coming in and the quality of hoops coming out of Utah will give us top 20 caliber quality for the next decade, but it takes someone special and a solid defensive squad to make serious consistent sweet 16 and elite eight runs.



I feel like the coaching staff is on the hook for the ole miss game and they need to up their game as much as the guys on the court. Our team tolerates too many mistakes and has too many lapses on the court right now to lead me to believe that talent alone will push us to the next level. Our coaching and preparation need to improve as much as our talent needs to improve. Our strength and conditioning need to improve drastically and we need to be able to feed the post and get to the line or get a basket (like all other top teams can do). Guys like Jake Toolson need to work on their bodies, lean body mass, and explosiveness (I think Toolson can effectively replace Haws if he does). (Guys like Josh Sharp failed to do so). Guys like KC need to work on their outside shot. These are things that aren't negotiable at top programs. Guys are expected to work their butts off in the offseason. At BYU it sometimes seems optional.



I love that BYU is getting better hoops facilities. I love that transfers are willing to come at sit at BYU (even pay their way) rather than go elsewhere. I absolutely love zac seljaas. I want Frank Jackson badly and I hope that he sees the light that that the BYU offense was built for him (the practice facility might have been built for him too). Eric Mika, Peyton Dastrup, Bronson Kaufusi (we get bronson, isaac nielsen, mika and eventually ryan andrus for 3 more years). We have the pieces to have a solid defensive and offensive front court.



What I worry about: Nick Emery and TJ Haws might not be athletic or physical enough to be dominant at the next level. (I hope I'm wrong) They dominated in high school and in spite of their lack of bigs (depthwise) they dominated many many guys that were in the NCAA tourney this year. But what kind of players are they going to be in college?



I worry that Utah is not going away. I don't like sharing recruits with them and prefer that the U and USUs hoops programs completely implode (USU might be).



I LOVE DAVE ROSE... I LOVE HIS STYLE OF PLAY... I LOVE HIS DEMEANOR... I LOVE WHAT HE'S DONE FOR BYU HOOPS... BUT... I worry that Coach Rose doesn't have a killer instinct and is too loyal to his assistants. I want a shake up. If getting Quincy Lewis to the Y gets us Frank Jackson and Poopola then DO IT.......... But I think Lewis offers a lot more than that. I think he offers an intensity that we have never seen at the Y. There is not a future BYU head coach after Dave Rose on the bench right now (if they promote Terry Nashif in 10 years I'll throw up). Coach Rose came from the juco ranks and was hired from Coach Cleve who came from the juco ranks (when hiring a hc from the juco ranks was crazy). I say give Quincy a chance to not only show he's ready to be a DI assistant, but that he might be the best potential candidate to replace Dave Rose in 10 years. Do something unexpected because winning is important enough to do something different. (Let Nashif go coach a JUCO or small school and see if he can manage winning as the boss... how long is he going to ride Coach's coat tails?)



I am excited about the future of BYU hoops but there are also a lot of concerns because no matter what talent comes in in the future, we still see issues with closing out games, losing to teams that we shouldn't lose to, not being physical or explosive enough, defending the perimeter and missing on recruits (guys that never got better (worthington, sharp, ambrosino, etc.) and not quite sealing the deal on Loveridge, etc.



There are things to improve. There are things to tighten up. There are lots of reasons to be very optimistic too.

http://www.vanquishthefoe.com/byu-cougars-basketball/2015/4/7/8287255/ultimate-byu-basketball-preview-2015-2016-roster-redshirts-missionaries" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



A preview for next year's team.

Few late thoughts on this thread:



1) Last time BYU went to the Sweet 16 we didn't win the conference tournament.

2) Success in the dance is greatly influenced by seeding. Last time BYU got an upper half seed, we went to the Sweet 16.

3) We have no depth.

4) It's hard to teach accountability with such a large droop off in talent/skill. In games like the WCC or NCAA tourney BYU doesn't really have that luxury. We are not Duke with a bench full of 4 and 5 star recruits capable of picking up where the other 4 or 5 star recruit fails. Bartley is playing recklessly. Who do you swap him out with? Nixon? Sharp? Not much of an improvement there.

5) If you are starter material at BYU, your spot is pretty much guaranteed for four years. Not going to much competition for your spot due to the lack of depth. If are good enough to start but not good enough to go pro there really is no incentive to improve your game other than your own personal desire to get better. This may be why we don't see dramatic improvements in the majority of our players. Lack of competition.



Over the next 10 years I expect 8 dance appearances, 3 conference championships, 4 round of 32, 2 Sweet 16 runs, 1 Elite 8 appearance, 20 win seasons every season, no post season snubs, and 4 WCC POYs.



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Any team that doesn't win the WCC regular season championship will by their very nature of being in the WCC most likely be a NCAA Tournament bubble team.



Bubble teams do not get good seeds.



BYU needs to win the WCC in dominating fashion to hope for conducive seeding for a sweet 16 run.

hawkwing wrote:
Any team that doesn't win the WCC regular season championship will by their very nature of being in the WCC most likely be a NCAA Tournament bubble team.



Bubble teams do not get good seeds.



BYU needs to win the WCC in dominating fashion to hope for conducive seeding for a sweet 16 run.

Agree, which was pretty much the case with the MWC.



Jimmer's last year was the exception with SDSU and BYU being top 25 teams. Even when we won the MWC we didn't get very good seeding.



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Gunk wrote:

5) If you are starter material at BYU, your spot is pretty much guaranteed for four years. Not going to much competition for your spot due to the lack of depth. If are good enough to start but not good enough to go pro there really is no incentive to improve your game other than your own personal desire to get better. This may be why we don't see dramatic improvements in the majority of our players. Lack of competition.

I don't agree with this statement. I'm trying to think of the last player that we didn't see dramatic improvement from over his time here. Maybe we don't agree on what the term "dramatic" means, but every player in recent memory has done better every year in the system, with Anson Winder being the poster boy for that.