What should Rose do with Haws?

We've talked about this in other threads but I think it deserves its own. It is very apparent, as we've talked about and used stats to back up, that Haws has been struggling. He doesn't play great D, is only a decent rebounder, has been playing a ton of minutes, and hasn't been shooting well from the field. He also is going on a mission next year which could be another reason to get Abouo and maybe even Loyd more minutes since they will have a much bigger role next year.



If you were Rose what would you do?

Short_Change wrote:
We've talked about this in other threads but I think it deserves its own. It is very apparent, as we've talked about and used stats to back up, that Haws has been struggling. He doesn't play great D, is only a decent rebounder, has been playing a ton of minutes, and hasn't been shooting well from the field. He also is going on a mission next year which could be another reason to get Abouo and maybe even Loyd more minutes since they will have a much bigger role next year.



If you were Rose what would you do?

At this point, stick with the rotation that has won all but 4 games. Maybe.

declocoug wrote:

We've talked about this in other threads but I think it deserves its own. It is very apparent, as we've talked about and used stats to back up, that Haws has been struggling. He doesn't play great D, is only a decent rebounder, has been playing a ton of minutes, and hasn't been shooting well from the field. He also is going on a mission next year which could be another reason to get Abouo and maybe even Loyd more minutes since they will have a much bigger role next year.



If you were Rose what would you do?

At this point, stick with the rotation that has won all but 4 games. Maybe.

I can definitely understand still keeping him in the starting rotation, but do you keep on playing him 27 min a game with the productivity that he has been displaying lately and knowing that he's going to be gone for two years?

Bring him in as the 2 off the bench and adjust his minutes according to how he's playing that night.

If we were only halfway through conference, I'd say put him on the bench and put in Loyd at 1, slide Jimmer to 2, Emery to 3.



However, we have one game left, and then it's sudden death from here on out. Given that context, it would be extremely foolish to start tinkering with groupings any more than you need to in accommodating fouls and injuries. I don't think Abouo has proven he would be an overall upgrade at the 3, and Tavernari is doing great coming off the bench, so there's really no bench player that makes the risk of altering chemistry at this point in the season worth any foreseeable reward. I like the idea of Loyd and Jimmer running a dual-threat guard system, but again you run into chemistry a bit (will they share and still be as effective?) and pushing Emery lower into the 3 spot could make him less effective for us defensively as well as on the boards as he'd be jostling with a bigger body.



Early season, you can tinker. Midseason, you can make adjustments when something isn't working. Late-season, if it ain't broke, don't touch it.

snoscythe wrote:
If we were only halfway through conference, I'd say put him on the bench and put in Loyd at 1, slide Jimmer to 2, Emery to 3.



However, we have one game left, and then it's sudden death from here on out. Given that context, it would be extremely foolish to start tinkering with groupings any more than you need to in accommodating fouls and injuries. I don't think Abouo has proven he would be an overall upgrade at the 3, and Tavernari is doing great coming off the bench, so there's really no bench player that makes the risk of altering chemistry at this point in the season worth any foreseeable reward. I like the idea of Loyd and Jimmer running a dual-threat guard system, but again you run into chemistry a bit (will they share and still be as effective?) and pushing Emery lower into the 3 spot could make him less effective for us defensively as well as on the boards as he'd be jostling with a bigger body.



Early season, you can tinker. Midseason, you can make adjustments when something isn't working. Late-season, if it ain't broke, don't touch it.

Do you limit Haws' minutes from 27 to say 20 or so or do you think that ruins the chemistry too much? I know chemistry is good, but if you can play you can play. Loyd definitely never hurt our teams chemistry the past two games and even though he didn't start he played starting minutes.



Abouo has proven to be the best rebounder we have period and has been the best defender at the 3 and has shown that he can shut down big time players. Not to mention his much needed athleticism. How long to you let Haws play with his poor shooting?

You limit his minutes and get Abouo out there much more often. People forget that in the tourney it takes toughness, shut-down D, and rebounding to win. BYU won't be able to run up and down and put up 90 on anybody starting in less than 2 weeks. We need the best lineup that provides these things and I can't imagine one that doesn't include Abouo.

Haws has averaged 14 points, 5 rebounds, 2.75 assists, 1 steal, and 1.5 personal fouls per game over the last four games, with 31 minutes per game.



Abouo has averaged 2.25 points, 2.5 rebounds, .75 assists, .75 steals, and 1.5 fouls over the same span with 12 minutes per game.



If you adjust Abouo's numbers to 31 minutes per game, this would be his stat line: 5.8 points, 6.45 rebounds, 1.94 assists, 1.94 steals, and 3.87 fouls.



So, you have to ask, do I really want to go for a guy who, given the same amount of playing time is going to give me 1.45 more rebounds, and 1 more steal and lose 8.2 points, and .79 assists while committing 2.3 more fouls?



Don't get me wrong, Abouo has improved lately, but I really don't think he has done enough to merit a drastic change in playing time late in the season, especially when Haws is really outplaying him in 3 out of 5 statistical categories.



To answer your question: No, I don't think we should be shaving minutes from Haws for Abouo.

I think Haws is doing things that the average schmuck of a fan doesn't recognized and that is why Rose keeps him in the games for the minutes that he is getting. If Haws was hurting the team with his minutes, his minutes would decrease for someone who is playing better.

frdbtr wrote:
I think Haws is doing things that the average schmuck of a fan doesn't recognized and that is why Rose keeps him in the games for the minutes that he is getting. If Haws was hurting the team with his minutes, his minutes would decrease for someone who is playing better.

Chances are, this is right on.

snoscythe wrote:
Haws has averaged 14 points, 5 rebounds, 2.75 assists, 1 steal, and 1.5 personal fouls per game over the last four games, with 31 minutes per game.



Abouo has averaged 2.25 points, 2.5 rebounds, .75 assists, .75 steals, and 1.5 fouls over the same span with 12 minutes per game.



If you adjust Abouo's numbers to 31 minutes per game, this would be his stat line: 5.8 points, 6.45 rebounds, 1.94 assists, 1.94 steals, and 3.87 fouls.



So, you have to ask, do I really want to go for a guy who, given the same amount of playing time is going to give me 1.45 more rebounds, and 1 more steal and lose 8.2 points, and .79 assists while committing 2.3 more fouls?



Don't get me wrong, Abouo has improved lately, but I really don't think he has done enough to merit a drastic change in playing time late in the season, especially when Haws is really outplaying him in 3 out of 5 statistical categories.



To answer your question: No, I don't think we should be shaving minutes from Haws for Abouo.

He's also shot 31% from the field the last four games whereas Abuou has shot 38% and a lot of Haws' points, almost half (6.75), have come from the free throw line (he hasn't missed one in a long time). I like him in the game at the end of the halves because of that, but don't like his decline in shooting percentage.



Efficiency is better than total numbers Sno and you should know that. Haws takes way more shots. With Abouo's efficiency though our point differencial with him in the game should increase especially since he rebounds better and defends better. Also what's more important fouls per game or how effective of a defender you are provided that you're not fouling out which neither are? I see Abouo as outplaying Haws in everything right now but assists per game and free throw percentage which again is why I like Haws in the game when we're shooting a lot free throws.

Here's another shooting breakdown between Haws and Abouo vs SDSU, UNLV, and UNM. On the year Haws is shooting 36% vs those teams and 28% the last three. Abouo is shooting 47% on the year and 55% the last three. Haws is also shooting 25% from three land the last 8 games and Abouo is at 30%. To me its very evident that Abouo plays a lot better and is a lot more efficient than Haws vs good teams.



I've loved Haws the whole year and at the beginning I thought he might go down the best shooter we've ever had. The last 8 games have made me skeptical though. I haven't always been impressed with Abouo, but the kid has freakish talent and I think we have to play him more especially against good and athletic teams. My eyes have told me that and the stats have confirmed that, IMO.

Short_Change wrote:

Haws has averaged 14 points, 5 rebounds, 2.75 assists, 1 steal, and 1.5 personal fouls per game over the last four games, with 31 minutes per game.



Abouo has averaged 2.25 points, 2.5 rebounds, .75 assists, .75 steals, and 1.5 fouls over the same span with 12 minutes per game.



If you adjust Abouo's numbers to 31 minutes per game, this would be his stat line: 5.8 points, 6.45 rebounds, 1.94 assists, 1.94 steals, and 3.87 fouls.



So, you have to ask, do I really want to go for a guy who, given the same amount of playing time is going to give me 1.45 more rebounds, and 1 more steal and lose 8.2 points, and .79 assists while committing 2.3 more fouls?



Don't get me wrong, Abouo has improved lately, but I really don't think he has done enough to merit a drastic change in playing time late in the season, especially when Haws is really outplaying him in 3 out of 5 statistical categories.



To answer your question: No, I don't think we should be shaving minutes from Haws for Abouo.

He's also shot 31% from the field the last four games whereas Abuou has shot 38% and a lot of Haws' points, almost half (6.75), have come from the free throw line (he hasn't missed one in a long time). I like him in the game at the end of the halves because of that, but don't like his decline in shooting percentage.



Efficiency is better than total numbers Sno and you should know that. Haws takes way more shots. With Abouo's efficiency though our point differencial with him in the game should increase especially since he rebounds better and defends better. Also what's more important fouls per game or how effective of a defender you are provided that you're not fouling out which neither are? I see Abouo as outplaying Haws in everything right now but assists per game and free throw percentage which again is why I like Haws in the game when we're shooting a lot free throws.

Agreed that I should have looked at percentages...just didn't even occur to me. I disagree that fouls don't matter--2 more fouls a game means four more foul shots for the other team, which is probably three points you give the other team. I also don't see how you can poo-poo the fact that Haws is getting to the line, which means the other team is fouling him--getting them in trouble. He has shot 27 free throws (made them all) in the last four games, where Abouo only would have shot 20 with the same minutes. Turnovers are a factor too--Abouo is committing twice as many turnovers per minute as Haws. Abouo does have a higher field goal percentage, but Abouo shoots fewer threes, which inflates his percentage (20% from 3-point range is as efficient as 30% inside) and Abouo also plays in garbage time and likely isn't a point of emphasis for opposing defenses as the #3 guy coming off of the bench.



I take your points, but I don't think they point as clearly to Abouo as you say. And even Abouo has the edge (which I disagree with), again you can't look at the numbers in a vacuum. You have to decide if the change is worth the risk in altering team chemistry at this most crucial part of the season. I just don't see any potential reward worth the risk of monkeying with a team that has gone 27-4.

I'm giving Haws credit for his free throws and that's why I said I like him in the game at the end, which increases his shots from the line. I'm not just using numbers. I've watched almost every game this year and for a while now I've felt like Haws has been getting worse and I was right and the numbers prove it. I've felt like Abouo has played better vs better competition and I think the numbers make a strong case for that. I'm not calling for Abouo to start over Haws, but I do think we need to play Abouo more and Haws less, at least as long as Haws is struggling shooting. Playing Haws less could also get Loyd more time which could even be more important than Abouo getting more time, but it's hard to say. It's an interesting argument.



My point about the fouls is that although Abouo fouls more you can't calculate how many times he stops a defender compared to Haws, but I believe even with the fouls Abouo saves us more points. That's just from my observations of them as defenders though.

Short_Change wrote:
Here's another shooting breakdown between Haws and Abouo vs SDSU, UNLV, and UNM. On the year Haws is shooting 36% vs those teams and 28% the last three. Abouo is shooting 47% on the year and 55% the last three.

Again, who is drawing more defensive attention from better players? The starter who plays against the starters, or the bench guy playing in relief against other bench guys.



Abouo also would have fouled out of all three of those games if he had played Haws' minutes, and he would have turned the ball over twice as much.

Haws is also shooting 25% from three land the last 8 games and Abouo is at 30%.

Did you go back to 8 games because Abouo is 0/3 in the last four games?



Since you place so much weight on games against SDSU, UNM, and UNLV, I don't see why you failed to note that Abouo is 33% from range against the Big-3 on the season (same for the last three games) while Haws is 44% for the season and 36% in the last three. Again, the fact that Haws shoots better from range mitigates the overall FG% disparity as you have to hit fewer threes to get the same number of points.

My point about the fouls is that although Abouo fouls more you can't calculate how many times he stops a defender compared to Haws, but I believe even with the fouls Abouo saves us more points. That's just from my observations of them as defenders though.

I brought up fouls not to show anything defensively, but rather I think it's relevant because it's more free throws for the other team, and a player in foul trouble cannot contribute as much. If Abouo committed fouls at the same rate he is right now and played Haws' minutes, he would have fouled out of 5 of the last 8 games. Yeah, he could dial it back, but that begs the question---could he be as active/effective with more minutes if it meant dialing back the intensity?



Again, I just don't see Abouo as being better, much less clearly so much better that we start screwing with the best lineup the school has ever put on the court with one game left before the tourneys. I have watched every game available on TV or internet this season, and I agree that Haws has gotten quieter while Abouo has stepped up in the past couple of weeks. However, at best I see them as equal at this point, which in my mind doesn't merit any changes to what's working.



And with that, I'm done--I like playing with numbers, but the problem with playing with numbers is we can both come up with seemingly objective support for subjective opinions unlikely to change. You say potato, I say tomato.

Short_Change wrote:
We've talked about this in other threads but I think it deserves its own. It is very apparent, as we've talked about and used stats to back up, that Haws has been struggling. He doesn't play great D, is only a decent rebounder, has been playing a ton of minutes, and hasn't been shooting well from the field. He also is going on a mission next year which could be another reason to get Abouo and maybe even Loyd more minutes since they will have a much bigger role next year.



If you were Rose what would you do?

Hmmmmm, I would say he is MUCH better than "only a decent rebounder". I would say he is an EXTREMELY good rebounder for a guard. Also, I definitely think Haws should start and play more over Abouo. I love Abouo, but Haws is great. Not to mention, I also think what someone mentioned about him (Haws) doing a lot of things you don't notice is right on. He's a smart player with good intangibles IMO.



I think maybe you cut his minutes back a bit, but not drastically, and not especially not in favor of Abouo.



Now Lloyd on the other hand, some interesting things there.

Sno,



You act like Abouo has never played vs starters. We've seen Abouo for longer than one year now and I think most would agree that he's a much better defender than Haws. Haws is obviously much better on offense. He's a shooter but hasn't shot very well lately. I respect your opinion and obviously we differ a bit. I think some have taken my thoughts and thought I was saying that Abouo is the better player overall and should start which is not what I'm trying to get across. I do think we need to play him more though.

I have a new idea, I think he should send him on a mission after the season's over.

I guess I should change what I said. There's no reason to think it's Haws or Abouo. I'd be perfectly happy to see Haws, Abouo, Emery, and Fredette out there at any given time. Nevertheless, I don't care what stats say--the average shmuck fan who never watches a game can look up box scores; I care about game-changers who bring fire when they play. When Abouo has been in during our toughest games, he has improved our defense and rebounding and nobody who plays the 3 or 4 is as good as him on that end. These skills win tourney games more than anything. Offense will come no matter who is on the court, but our defense needs help which Abouou deftly provides.